The International Federation of Journalists (IFJ) is alarmed that Sri Lankan authorities are taking the unprecedented step of applying the country's draconian anti-terrorism law to seek to condemn senior journalist J.S. Tissainayagam for pursuing his profession.

After being held for five months without charge, Tissainayagam has been formally indicted by the High Court of Sri Lanka under the Prevention of Terrorism Act (PTA) (1979), according to the Free Media Movement, an IFJ affiliate.

In a country where journalism and journalists already face extreme threats and pressures to self-censor, the indictment is an unprecedented effort by the state to stifle press freedom.

"The decision by Sri Lankan authorities to charge a journalist on the allegation that his professional work is an act of terrorism is an extreme effort by Sri Lanka's Government to shut down independent journalism and voices," IFJ Asia-Pacific said. The FMM said that the 2006 Emergency Regulations contravene fundamental rights guaranteed under Sri Lanka's Constitution and international law. "With the indictment of Mr Tissainayagam this week on what is factually an extremely weak foundation, our worst fears with regard to the dangers of such authoritarian and unconscionable legislation have been confirmed," it said. Tissainayagam was arrested on March 7 after checking with police on the welfare of N. Jesiharan, the owner of E-Kwality Printing Press, and Jesiharan's partner, Valamarthi, who were arrested previously and continue to be held by the Terrorist Investigation Department (TID).

Tissainayagam was then held for five months without charge under the custody of the TID. At the time of his arrest he was the editor of newly founded website www.outreachsl.com. Four Outreach colleagues were also arrested about the same time but were released soon after. The IFJ joins the FMM in unequivocally condemning the PTA and Emergency Regulations framework as oppressive, imprecise, susceptible to unchallengeable government manipulation and inconsistent with international standards governing the balance between legitimate national security considerations and freedom of expression.

The IFJ and the FMM call on the international community to defend press freedom in Sri Lanka by denouncing the PTA and the indictment against Tissainayagam.

The Sri Lankan military and the opposing Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) are putting tens of thousands of displaced civilians at risk as fighting continues in the Wanni area of northern Sri Lanka.

Displaced mother washing her baby in Sri Lanka

Displaced Sri Lankans travelling with their belongings

Children outside a temporary shelter in Sri Lanka

Temporary shelter for displaced people in Sri Lanka

Woman outside temporary shelter in Sri Lanka

Displaced Sri Lankans cooking under a tree

This is the full text of a speech delivered on Aug 17th 2008 at a seminar organized by the Canadians for peace in Toronto.It was chaired by Mr. Ratnam Ganesh:

Chairman Sir, Mr. John Argue of AI, Ladies and Gentlemen: Good evening.

Thank you, Canadians for Peace and sponsors for the kind invitation to speak this evening. When the invitation came from Chelian, I recalled the advice of one of my old batch mates who had been my room-mate when we were undergraduates. He said to me "Do you think we do not know all that you talk about publicly. The only thing you accomplish is bringing your family and yourself into trouble. It is better to look after your family and be safe." What he meant is that any reasonable peace loving Tamil who gives voice to his views is slandered, vilified and demonized by the Tamil right. Mr. V. Anandasangaree, Ketheesh Loganathan, and Neelan Tiruchelvam have suffered this fate. Likewise, on the Sinhalese side we see the same thing happening to Elmore Perera, Rohan Edirisinghe, Jayadeva Uyangoda and Jehan Perera. Their stories will tell us what happens to those who refuse to conform with the right.

According to the letter I got from Chelian, there is a four-fold purpose to this meeting:

1. Condemning the planned bombings in southern Sri Lanka targeting innocent people.

2. Condemning the killings of innocent people in Sri Lanka and the deprivation of their rights by the Sri Lankan Government.

3. Urging a well-deserved, respectable and reasonable political solution to the Muslim people of Sri Lanka. And

4. In order to stop all murders, kidnappings, human rights violations and the ongoing atrocious war completely, urging that all minorities of Sri Lanka should be offered a respectable, reasonable political solution.

I cannot agree more and would add a fifth: The political murders of people like Ketheesh Loganathan, Neelan Tiruchelevan and the 2 to 3 persons who are bumped off every day in the North-East ought to cease.

I am all for peace. Indeed who is not except for arms dealers and those seeking political asylum? To some, peace lies only in victory. So let us be sure about what I mean by peace. I am for a peaceful situation where every Sri Lankan is free to seek his freedom, well-being and development while respecting the rights of others to the same.

To be sure, peace is not antithetical to separation. It is possible to have separate geographical units where the Sinhalese, Tamils and Muslims pursue their own well-being without clashing with the other communities.

Chairman Sir, it is a great pity that there is no Sinhalese or Muslim person here with us among the speakers today. To bring peace to Sri Lanka, a lot needs to be done. There are things to be done by Muslims; things to be done by Tamils; and most importantly, things to be done by the Sinhalese – for in Sri Lanka's uneven polity, it is you, the Sinhalese, who hold the keys to power and therefore the keys to a solution. I dare say that if the Sinhalese polity – we Tamils are not part of it – wishes to, peace can be restored right away through a just settlement. Simply implement the thirteenth amendment and the reasonable use of Tamil law, and the cry for Eelam will for the large part vanish. Does anyone here argue that we Tamils made a grave error in sabotaging the Indo-Lanka Accord and that if we had accepted it, we will not be in this sorry plight today?

What the Sinhalese, Muslims and Tamils ought to do, must come from within to be effective. In the absence of Sinhalese and Muslim speakers today, I do not wish to be telling them what they ought to do. For it would seem provocative, if not condemnatory. It must be left for another day, another meeting, where there are Sinhalese and Muslim speakers. It is after all, pretty obvious to any outside observer that a just settlement is easily accomplished through devolution. It is clear to me that some form of separation is the only answer. We Tamils and Sinhalese – and Muslims too – are fighting over – fighting for – the same things. We need our own territories where we can decide our matters by ourselves. Such territorial division is good for all of us, be it through federalism or outright separation.

But such separation is obviously not going to be given by the Sinhalese as is obvious from the sorry state of the All Party Representative Committee and its ever "soon-to-be-released" recommendations. And indeed the Tigers are incapable of winning Eelam through military might. So as things are, unless something gives, we Tamils are due for some kind of homogenization, not separation of any sort.

I propose to use the few minutes allocated to me here today to address the matter from a Tamil perspective. I speak as a Tamil. Let there be no doubt that there are good peace-loving Sinhalese just as there are good peace-loving Tamils and peace-loving Muslims. Some of them are here today. But like us peace-loving Tamils, most peace-loving Sinhalese and Muslims are also quiet so as not to get into trouble. Of what good are we when we take no risks for what we believe in? This is why the Sinhalese right and the Tamil right – despite the verbiage of socialism and democracy that both pretend to – have been able to hijack our peoples and be able to claim to speak for us all.

I worked for 10 years in Sri Lanka before I had to flee for dear life in fear of Tamil guns. Indeed one morning when I came to my office after a lecture, a CID officer was waiting for me. He identified himself as part of a team that tracks the Sihala Urumaya. He cautioned me that their information from Urumaya meetings was that I was a target. He gave me numbers to call in case I saw anything unusual. So I had good Sinhalese friends and good Sinhalese indeed there are. But of what good are good people when they are powerless against evil? In those 10 years I saw no change of heart. I saw hatred from those in power – be they Tamil or Sinhalese, be they armed or holding administrative positions. Of what good are the majority when they are silent? The same goes for the Tamil majority too.

The Sinhalese ruling clique's mood is to crush the LTTE. Then, upon crushing the LTTE, they say, that all will be right and we Tamils will enjoy democracy. The kind of democracy we will enjoy can be seen in what is happening in the East – more colonization, new Buddhist temples sprouting up everywhere, vote-rigging, more Sinhalesization, etc. When I was on the UGC, there was a proposal to have a massive infusion of money into South Eastern University [sic.]. Billions of rupees were to be poured in. It is officially a national university but understood to be a Muslim university. The suggestion for the expansion came from the ministry. But we of the UGC had to initiate it officially. We enthusiastically supported it. We believed that aid to develop one of the least developed parts of Sri Lanka was a great idea and that economic activity would grow around the university. We proposed the plan. But today, after the liberation of the East, the report is that the new class would consist almost 40% of Sinhalese. Another proposal would merge the Tamil Eastern University with South Eastern University. Why? It is no accident that our UGC began a medical faculty for Eastern University and those seats are a prize. Parallel to these goings-on, Muslim home-guards who worked for the so-called liberation of the East have been assaulted and disarmed now that their usefulness is over and they could become an obstacle to Sinhalesization.

In this gloomy scenario it is tempting for us Tamils to opt for complete separation – Eelam – as the easy way out. But it is not that simple. Can we Tamils really achieve Eelam? I do not think so for three major reasons.

1) Reason 1, we Tamils have lost the moral high ground and with it the world's sympathies. In 1983 we were the abused people. We evoked sympathy. Since then we are also known for the massacre of civilians such as at Anuradhapura, Temple of the Tooth, Gonagala, and so on. We also have engaged in genocide by evicting Muslims from our midst in the North and slaughtering Muslims at prayer in Katankudi and massacring Muslim villagers including babies. We Tamils are believed to be among the leading drugs smugglers and credit card fraudsters of the world. We rig elections and are so fascist that no Tamil has the democratic right to disagree with our leadership. Our cry for freedom rings hollow. Who would want to support such a community? How can
Eelam be established if there is no country prepared to recognize it?

2) Reason 2, because of our terror tactics such as our massacres and bombs in buses and public places, we have acquired the reputation of terrorists. On hearing that we are Tamil, my wife's professor remarked "Ah so you are the naughty ones!" What shame! In the Post 9/11 period, we who employ terrorist techniques are simply persona non grata in much of the world.

Permit me a slight diversion at this point. I grew up in an Anglican vicarage and have been privy to things of a human nature that many of you are not. When I was in grade 4 or 5 – I cannot remember exactly – a woman member of our parish came distraught and crying early one morning in disheveled night clothes. She charged that she had been beaten up by her husband. A few minutes later her husband came bicycling to our house, the vicarage. Very angry with his wife, he demanded of my father, "Father, if a wife will not obey, what is there to do except beat her?" I do not know what happened after that as my father took them both into his room for good advice and prayers I suppose.

But this I remember – that he so intensely believed in his logic and I laughed at the man in my mind and still do although he was so sure of himself. Many of us Tamils are just like that man. We argue that when the Sinhalese drop bombs on us, our children, our schools and our churches and temples, we are justified in placing bombs in their buses. We are adamantly sure of how right we are. Likewise the Sinhalese seem to think that when we Tamils will not obey, the only solution is to bomb us into submission. Like that husband, we are so sure of that logic. What we sadly do not know is that the whole world outside is disconnected from our thinking and laughs at us.

To those who are still not convinced, I refer you to the paper by Ivan Arreguin-Toft, Research Fellow in the International Security Program at Harvard. He has shown that war crime doesn't pay: barbarism increases the costs and risks of military operations, and poisons chances for peaceful post-war occupation and development.

Let there be no mistake. Our attitude, our barbarism, will lead to the annihilation of many and probably the total destruction of Tamils as a people in Sri Lanka. The logic of numbers, resources, time and power is on the Sinhalese side.

Let me also be clear that bombing the LTTE into extinction is no solution either. The LTTE may be obliterated but without a political solution the reasons that caused the LTTE will still be there and give rise to another version of the LTTE. Indeed, a government that claims to bomb us to save us from the LTTE and give us democracy, cannot bomb the very people it claims to want to save into refugee camps, if not into total annihilation. Further, to Tamil dissidents who have been hunted by the LTTE, I say this: The right to life of everyone has to be respected including the right to life of LTTE members, not just our rights, the rights of those targeted by the LTTE. Moreover, many in the LTTE, though misguided, are genuinely for the cause of freedom. The solution is in their rehabilitation from their destructive zeal.

Remember especially that we who cry foul when children and even adults are forced to bear arms for the LTTE, cannot in the same breath rejoice when they are annihilated. An estimate has it that 30% of forced conscripts are already dead.

3) Returning to the reasons why Eelam is not possible, reason 3, is that after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi, India is totally opposed to any Tamil state. Even Tamil Nadu seems disinterested. Mr. Muthuvel Karunanithy, the Chief Minister, composed his ode to the late Thamilchlevan and made many of us think that he is going to support Eelam again. But I have it on reliable authority that after composing that poem, he had told a Tamil lobbyist that his priority is to get development for Tamil Nadu from the Centre without dissipating his influence arguing with the Centre for Tamil rights in Sri Lanka.

There are lesser reasons why Eelam is not possible. I need not enumerate or go into them here. The point I wish to make is what was taught to me in my Economics course as an undergraduate – the Theorem of the Second Best. We were taught this theorem by Tilak Ratnakara of the LSE. By the way, his economics made good sense but not his anti federal diversions during his lectures. This theorem states that where the best is not attainable, spend your finances and energies usefully by working for the second best. To explain in simple terms, a poor homeless man from Sri Lanka may think that a palace in Beverly Hills is the best. It is an impossible dream. If the poor man waits until he has saved enough to build that palace, he would still be working for that at the end of his life without a roof over his head. But if he dreams of what can be achieved, say a simple decent house in Sri Lanka, and works towards that, there is much better hope that he can achieve it and it is likely that he will spend the last years of his life in that house in some comfort. In this context of the achievable, a decent house in Sri Lanka becomes the best. For this reason alone I am all for a negotiated federal set-up. Then there are other reasons too that would make what is the second best to the Eelamist really the best:

1) Eelam can come only through war and war means many deaths

2) A federal deal avoids the trauma that would be caused to mixed populations in border areas and allows Tamils who prefer living in the South to choose to do so and vice versa. This is of immense importance to Estate Tamils. If we are truly for Tamil freedom, we must give choices to our people.

3) A federal deal would avoid the ruination of Tamils living in the South, especially the many Tamils who have investments in the South. Eelam means that the multimillions in new flats in Colombo might have to be sold in fire sales as happened after the 1983 riots which probably in monetary terms were of higher value than the properties that were destroyed.

4) A negotiated federal settlement would give us Tamils most of what we want.

5) A settlement keeps open the possibility of mutually beneficial engagement with the Sinhalese.

6) A settlement avoids the continuing climate of war, associated with separation, as a result of a long border.

Surely many of us know that these things are necessary corollaries of Eelam. To right thinking people – especially Tamils in Sri Lanka – these are really important things to think about. Any Tamil who says these are but trivial excuses against Eelam, I dare say, is an expatriate who has nothing to lose, has all his properties in Toronto, New York, London, Sydney and places, and wants to act out his dream of being a little "Kattai Pomman." To those who do not know, Kattai Pomman was a Tamil bandit (or kollaikaaran in Tamil reports) in India who defied the British by not paying taxes and was celebrated as a hero-king of the Pandiyan dynasty in a movie where Sivaji Ganeshan played Veera Pandiya Kattai Pomman.

Let us then agree on a negotiated federal set up as the best solution. But then is that going to happen? Given the present mood of the Sinhalese and their confidence they can defeat the LTTE and given the historical legacy of reneged deals, I can hear some of you of saying, "A negotiated federal arrangement is also an impossible thing."

You may well be right. I see no mood among the Sinhalese to cede anything to us. After all, what has the dilatory APRC offered us? Good Sinhalese there are, but they are irrelevant in the present political order. These good people today are overwhelmed by the forces that march inexorably to crush the Tamil people into submission. In the process of being politely mindful of the sensibilities of good Sinhalese, we sometimes fail to see the enormity, the evil, of the Sri Lankan state.

Should we then look for a third scenario? Alas, the only third best thing that I see is our losing the war and being assimilated. But thank God for small mercies, assimilation preserves lives. After all, the right to life is higher than the right to language and culture and must be respected as such. It is important not to lose sight of this reality and be carried away by heroic words.

Veerapandiya Kattaipomman said "Thooku Medai, Panju Meththai" – that is, the hangman's gallows are like a comfortable cotton mattress. We do not even know if he really said that but that is what Sivaji Ganeshan says in the movie as Veerapandiya Kattaipomman. We in Sri Lanka then, carried away by his bravado shortly after the movie was screened in Jaffna, chanted "Thooku Medai, Panju Meththai" during the Satyagraha protests in 1961 and ran away as soon as the Sinhalese police rained their blows on us. Similarly in 1976 our late leader Mr. S.J.V. Chelvanaygam moved the Vaddukoddai resolution for Eelam. Words that our leaders meant as a negotiating position were believed by the youth. We got carried away by our words. On top of all this, Mr. V. Pirabakaran has said that even if one person survives the ongoing war for that person's eyes to see Eelam, then the war and all the attendant sacrifices would have been worth it.

Let us not be carried away by words like these meant for political speeches. I would rather live than die for one person to see Eelam. After all, the right to life is far higher than the right to culture. It is the highest of the human rights given in any of the instruments. Let us not fool ourselves – we would all choose to live rather than die for earthly things. With life, we can at least have hope to live life the way we want to live it. For those of us who like to live the way we choose, be it as a Tamil Hindu or Christian or as a Muslim, death as a choice is unacceptable.

So in summary, Eelam through war is an impossible goal. Federalism through negotiations seems extremely unlikely given Sinhalese intransigence and a seeming self-perceived God-given right to rule over Tamils. And the third choice is to be assimilated – a horrible choice for any Tamil who values and wants his cultural rights and wishes to live peacefully in Sri Lanka as a Tamil.

In my mind it is clear that all peace loving Sri Lankans ought to work for the second best, the negotiated federal settlement. In the current set up, as remarked earlier, it is not going to come of its own. The government by bombing us to save us has lost its right to rule us. So also the LTTE for robbing us of all freedoms while claiming to fight for our freedoms. Our activities must therefore be directed towards peace through federalism through third parties with power.

Speaking for myself, the only way in which I see that happening, is through foreign mediation. The international community must force a settlement upon the Sri Lankan government. I see three things as necessary for that to happen and without these there will be a serious impediment to any foreign mediation. First, we Tamils need to renounce our violent and undemocratic ways of the past and present, and demonstrate that when we talk of freedom, we really mean it and would give our fellow Tamil citizens the freedom to make choices, including choosing our representatives. We need to renounce terrorism and assassinations. When Tamil leaders refuse to give freedom to Tamils, what indeed is the basis for asking for freedom for ourselves within the Sri Lankan polity?

The second thing that ought to happen concerns India. As long as a Tamil government (whether federal or separate) means an LTTE government, there is no way in which India will countenance it. And without India's blessings, no other member of the international community would want to become a player in Sri Lankan affairs. For India is far more important to the West than the Sinhalese or the Tamils or the Muslims of Sri Lanka. Our leaders like Mr. R. Sambanthan, Mr. Mavai Senathirajah and Mr. S. Sivajilingam, all three good men who at one time demonstrated stern hearts and a strong love for their people, are today unable to speak of one half of the atrocities that we Tamil people face. It is because they live in fear. I am however aware that they make their views known as best as they can in the Vanni. They will need to lead again if we are ever to overcome this problem of Indian refusal to deal with us when we are represented by the LTTE. As the only leaders with the ability to have a conversation with the LTTE, they have much to offer in gently displacing the LTTE or persuading them to reconcile with India. I hope that when the need arises they will act with the courage they are capable of.

If India can be brought around through Tamils eating humble pie and turning a new leaf, India can be a force for the good of the Sinhalese and the Tamils. India can guarantee a settlement. A guarantor with strength and the willingness to use that strength is a must. In the days of our gentlemen leaders like SJV Chelvanayagam, the Sinhalese cheated many times – the BC Pact, the DC Bill, etc. But today, we Tamils also cheat – recall that according to the Scandinavian monitors of the 2002 cease-fire, it is the Tamil side that cheated most. Things are not so one-sided as we Tamils make out. Recall that in 2000 Chandrika presented a settlement which was an important step towards federalism. With support from Tamils there was a good chance of pushing it through. Although privately TULF politicians from Joseph Pararajasingam to R. Sambanthan wanted it to go through they did not dare to support it because of the LTTE threat. Mr. Neelan Tiruchelvam and Mr. A. Thangathurai who worked for it were murdered. Recall also that we almost had federalism under the Oslo Accord and then the LTTE stopped talking. Three years ago the government was prepared to bend over backwards to accommodate the LTTE despite growing Sinhalese fears, but the LTTE was not interested in getting anything for the people, and only in preparing for war. Even as the LTTE was attending peace talks, I am personally aware that they were publicly promising the final war in public speeches in Jaffna.

So even the Sinhalese can justly say that the Tamil side sabotages peace and cheats. We Tamils, with a self-serving mind-set, believe that we are always right and the Sinhalese are always wrong. The fact is that we both have sabotaged peace. So a strong guarantor is a must to make any agreement stick. Other countries of the international community such as Canada, the EU and Japan, can play a role in overcoming Sinhalese fears over India siding with the Tamils. India, with a natural interest in the security of the region, can invest troops in a realistic way to guarantee peace and deter anyone who dares cheat. And Indian trade along with deals with other members of the international community can develop all the federal states in a negotiated set-up with the associated trade benefits to India too.

And the third thing that ought to happen for international mediation is that the expatriate Tamil role must be based on what is good for the Tamils in Sri Lanka and not based on expatriate ego trips that make us living abroad feel-good as little Kattai Pommans. In the past expatriate Tamil meddling has been confined to funding, to angry speeches about the Sinhalese, and to vilifying through slander in their websites those Tamils in Sri Lanka who offer any alternative leadership. But just this July 24, a major departure was when Tamils joined Burmese dissidents and demonstrated against Sri Lanka and China in commemoration of the 1983 riots. Naturally the leaders of the Ilankai Tamil Sangam, cautious of the recent arrests of Tamils for promoting terrorism, carefully kept out of it. These people who commit our brethren in Sri Lanka to war and death, will not even put out their own names in public! They were fronted by an organization called PEARL by their children. PEARL stands for "People for Equality and Relief in Lanka". These children are often uncomfortable with children brought up in Sri Lanka. Do they have empathy? Do they really recognize the powers they are dealing with and the calamities that can be visited on our people by angering China? Demonstrating against Sri Lanka is one thing but China? Enough damage has already been done by angering India over the Rajiv Gandhi matter. We do not need more enemies. I put it to you that their demonstration did not benefit our brethren in Sri Lanka one iota. It might, however, have helped to build up some résumés for those at PEARL. The test for anything we do here must be this: Does it help our people at home?

Speaking strictly for myself, I find being in an Indian orbit preferable to annihilation during an unwinnable war or assimilation following inevitable defeat. After all, India's is a stable democracy with genuine elections with no rigging in the form of preventing people from voting and stuffing ballot boxes. Hers is an independent judiciary where the Chief Justice does not serve at the pleasure of the President to stave off impeachment. Her civil service is professional and independent. So even if a crazy fellow wants to do something bad to us when we are under Indian rule, it would be well nigh impossible. I think even the Sinhalese would be better off under India than under Sri Lanka's terribly flawed democracy.

However, there have been some troubling signs of Indian capital moving in to exploit the deprivation of Tamil rights. The people of Sampoor were shelled out by the government which declared it a "High Security Zone" and India is now building a coal power station there. It is good for us to have healthier ties with India on equitable terms but not on terms where Indian capital would act with less restraint than at home and our people are even more at the receiving end. To address this we need a new Tamil leadership with credibility through even handedness that can influence India positively. We need leaders India can talk to.

After this history no one is ready to listen to us Tamils and we as Tamils are not sure what we want. Adding to the tragedy, the expatriate Tamils had an important voice. Those who were clear that the LTTE cannot work for a solution were silenced. Through the 1990sTamil lobbies were backed by LTTE supporters and persons of no little influence like C.J. Eliezer and a host of university academics, doctors and leading professionals. These people were blindly one-sided and did not want to see that good politics, successful politics, needs the accommodation of the needs and fears of the Sinhalese and Muslims. Instead they gave excuses for anything we did including the massacres and expulsion of Muslims. In time influential foreigners started seeing us as liars, terrorists or the political equivalent of a mad religious sect. Now their influence – our influence as Tamils – is negative as seen by many of these people having fallen silent.

How then do we reassert ourselves to invite foreign intervention without the negative effects of free capital? Was not all this enthusiasm a great waste? We could have achieved much more if we had built up a credible Tamil voice that could challenge the government and restrain the excesses of the LTTE. Now as the LTTE seems weak, the voices critical of the LTTE are louder. Unfortunately many of them through their bitter experience want the LTTE finished off and are not concerned about what happens to the people. We can never tolerate civilians being bombed and shelled indiscriminately and confined to abject conditions in refugee camps with no schooling for the children. No government would have dared to do this to the Sinhalese. Nor could we tolerate the LTTE using the people held as prisoners under it to forcibly fight the brunt of its war or the government indulging in systematic targeted killings. What the Tamil expatriates need now is to build up a credible voice. Is it too much to ask people to think back on the mistakes made all these years? Not only are those supporting the LTTE guilty of sectarianism, but so also those who rightly saw where the LTTE was taking the people and yet remained silent. We have unwanted divisions, which is understandable. But do we also need scurrilous guerrilla attacks on our web sites? If we are to do any good to the people at home, we need to start acting responsibly.

This brings me to the question posed in the flier for this meeting: "What is the future for Sri Lanka?" I think there are presently only 2 possibilities. Either we Tamils lose out and in the long term are assimilated; or alternatively we turn our backs on our fascist past, and woo the International Community, particularly India, into imposing a just settlement. I pray it is the latter and not the former.

(Prof. S. RATNAJEEVAN H. HOOLE holds D.Sc. (Eng.) London, Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon University, M.Sc. with a Mark of Distinction from London offered jointly through Imperial College and Queen Mary College, and B.Sc. Eng. Hons. from the University of Sri Lanka, Katubedde Campus. Dr. Hoole is the Vice Chancellor of University of Jaffna in Sri Lanka while seconded from his position as Senior Professor of Electrical Engineering at the University of Peradeniya, Sri Lanka. On special leave, he is presently a Fellow of the Scholar Rescue Fund, Institute of International Education, UN Plaza, New York and a Visiting Professor at Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA.)

The Eelam War is entering the messy phase. During the last two weeks, in Mannar sector the security forces have progressed up to Mulankavil (southeast of Nachikuda on the Mannar coast) on A32 road to Pooneryn. They are leaning on lineTunukkai-Mallavi, West of Mankulam on A9 highway increasing the threat to Pooneryn and Kilinochchi defences of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). This should put the LTTE in a dilemma as the security forces have two options to strike, along A32 to Pooneryn with holding operations along Tunukkai-Uyilankulam/ Mallavi, or progress in the other way round to threaten Kilinochchi. Both are viable as they have another task force guarding their eastern flank of 57 Division operating closer to A9.

[Sri Lanka Army, in Wanni-pic:SLA]

These operations have amply demonstrated how the security forces are overcoming their weaknesses on three difficult aspects; higher coordination of war involving multiple formations, effective use of commandos in tandem with conventional operations, and retaining military initiative at all times.

On the negative side, as the security forces progress further into the LTTE areas, the lines of communication become stretched, they would become vulnerable to determined LTTE interdiction or even blocks. Much would depend upon Prabhakaran's ability to motivate the cadres and the ability of the security forces not be destabilised by such operations. One can expect the security forces to have contingency plan for such a development.

[Col. R. Hariharan, at a symposium in Colombo, Aug 2007]

Whether one believes in the huge number of casualties of the put out daily by the Sri Lanka Ministry of Defence or not, the writing on the wall would be clear to the insurgent group. Time is running out for it to hold on to its conventional capability. In war, time is the only resource available equally to both the victor and the vanquished. If at all the LTTE has to do anything to stem the tide of the security force eating into its vitals, it has to do it now. Overall, on both sectors the progress is going to be messy and slower, with the monsoon also making life more difficult for both the forces.

The non-military issue that could upset the security forces advance is the flow of refugees going out of control when they move in to the more inhabited areas closer to Kilinochchi, Mankulam and Pooneryn. The security forces had managed to avoid this so far in the Mannar sector by patiently investing or by passing small towns (as seen in Adampan operations). That might not be possible unless they streamline a policy on handling the large outflow of population expected to spill over on axes of advance when the operations are joined in. There will also be the huge burden of logistics to control and care for the civilians. These are the known fall outs of war that cannot be wished away. (That is what makes war a non-option.)

Relations across the Palk Strait

A few days back when India's National Security Advisor MK Narayanan told The Straits Times interviewer that the Sri Lankan government should get the Tamil population on their side to succeed there was a mild flutter in Colombo. In the midst of a winning war, brand marketed as the Liberation of the People, Narayanan's remark "The (Sri Lanka Army) has made a lot of progress in the last few weeks. But even if they win the battle I am not sure they will win the war. I think they haven't got the Tamil population on their side," probably grated the official stand of Colombo on the war.

He did not underestimate Colombo's reaction to his statement. "I know the Sri Lankan government will be unhappy (at this advice) but we are not interested in preaching to them and that is the best advice they could get. India can give this advice better than the Norwegians or any other country. These are people that we know, we understand. Do they want a situation like many countries have faced?" he added.

On the other hand, Sri Lanka's Defence Secretary, Gotabaya Rajapaksa had his own view on the subject. Speaking to The Times, London three days later, he said peace in Sri Lanka would return only if Tamil rebels were destroyed completely. "You can't just push them into the jungles and wait. You have to search for them and completely eradicate them. Only then can peace come," he explained further.

The two statements indicate the differing perceptions of India and Sri Lanka on the war going on against the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka.

India had been consistent on three issues in its cyclical interest, involvement, and intervention in Sri Lanka Tamil issue. They are, no support to independent Tamil Eelam, support for Sri Lanka's sovereignty, and the devolution of powers to Sri Lanka Tamils as the key to solve the Tamil issue. MK Narayanan's statement basically conforms to this pattern, though with a little generosity his wording might be called plain speaking. Even the Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh "stuck to the traditional Indian stand that Sri Lanka should work out a formula which allows for maximum devolution of power to the ethnic Tamils in the north of the island country," during his recent visit to Colombo to attend the SAARC s summit, as a news report from Colombo stated.

Most of the Sri Lanka watchers (including this author) would agree with the National Security Advisor's assessment of the Sri Lanka situation: "What the Sri Lankans are not factoring in is the great deal of sullenness in the Tamil man. There are accusations of profiling even in Colombo. Our argument is: unless you give Tamils a feeling they have the right to their own destiny in many matters you will not succeed. LTTE's capacity to carry out terrorist attacks is not diminished. What we are telling them is, get the Tamils on your side by greater devolution of power. For them to be part of Sri Lankan state, they need the huge Tamil minority on their side."

In essence, Narayanan's statement does not question the legitimacy of Sri Lanka's war against the LTTE, but the overall objective of the war. President Rajapaksa's government has repeatedly given an impression that once the LTTE is vanquished it would be all smooth sailing with the Tamil population automatically joining the democratic mainstream. The Sri Lanka Defence Secretary's statement quoted earlier reinforces this impression yet again. It appears to identify the LTTE as the problem, rather than as the manifestation of the problem. And that is the difference between the perceptions of India and Sri Lanka.

A second aspect is the popular aspiration for peace. Surveys indicate increasing public support for war in Sri Lanka. But this increased support has two elements: battles are being won, and people are nursing increased expectations of permanent peace at the end of the war. End objective of war makes a lot of difference to people's expectations. Peoples' expectations of permanent peace are unlikely to be met unless there is a matching process of devolution of powers to the Tamils. This simple truth appears to have been wished away in Sri Lanka at present. The holding of elections for the eastern provincial council offered a very good opportunity to the government to demonstrate its faith in devolving limited powers envisaged in the 13th amendment. Unfortunately, even that has not been done so far, and the process still remains a promise in print only.

Presence of a small number of highly motivated terrorists can cause havoc to the normal life of the people as amply demonstrated by the Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) activists in India for sometime now. A small number of them managed to carry serial blasts in a number of cities across the country despite the police and security apparatus of over 12 states coming into play. This should hold an abject lesson for Sri Lanka. If the LTTE is routed and driven out of areas under its control (as total 'elimination' of any insurgent force might take years), a large segment of it will take to terrorist attacks across the country.

This is a clear if we look at the long history of the Tamil struggle in Sri Lanka. To convert the entire history of Tamil struggle into a simple equation of war against the LTTE might win some votes in Southern Sri Lanka, but it would not eliminate the Tamil political and militancy problems, though they may not continue in the same form or content as at present.

Notwithstanding these differences in perceptions on the Tamil issue, India and Sri Lanka appear to have a clear understanding of the political compulsions behind their conduct. This has helped them to focus on the positives and not to overplay the differences. This is evident from Gotabaya Rajapaksa's comments given in another interview to an Indian news agency on Narayanan's statement.

Rather than criticising Narayanan, he lamented about Sri Lanka's limitations in convincing others about its intentions. "The only area where we have failed is to show our genuineness, to convince the outsiders, about our sincerity in resolving the problem. In action we have proved it. Unfortunately, we are not good at propaganda. If Tamils indeed are not with us, then it is our weakness." This statement appears to have chosen to ignore the whole point mad by MK Narayanan. It was much more than propaganda, it was about belief. The defence secretary's statement may be called over simplification of not only a complex issue.

The Sri Lanka government is fully aware that it needs Indian government's support even to complete its current military mission. India is extending vital support for the war effort by continuing with tough security measures in Tamil Nadu where a number of LTTE supply modules continue to be busted. This should indicate to Colombo that regardless of nuances of rhetoric, India's policy has been consistent. The defence secretary also acknowledged this with the words that Narayanan "only put in different words what our President has been saying, that we need to defeat terrorism but the (ethnic) problem needs to be resolved (politically)." The Defence Secretary took consolation in two positive aspects he saw in Narayanan's statement: he had said the military was winning, and he did not say that Sri Lank should talk to the LTTE.

This convergence and confusion in view points of India and Sri Lanka will continue till the President is dependent upon right wing Sinhala support. This section of Sinhala polity has survived by building up the so called "Dravidastan" bogey of Tamil Nadu together with the LTTE gobbling up parts of Sri Lanka. The thought of Dravidastan has been shunted to historical irrelevance in Tamil Nadu, which has become a vital development engine in the national mainstream. And the faster the President gets rid of this right wing dependency the better it would be for his government, the people of Sri Lanka, and for India-Sri Lanka relations.

(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90.He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail:colhari@yahoo.com)

by D.B.S. Jeyaraj

“Humanitarian catastrophe” was the description given by the so-called international media when the Caucasian conflict began displacing people.

Initially it was a humanitarian catastrophe only to Russian and other pro-Moscow media when 34,000 people became Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) due to Georgia’s military adventure.

Thereafter, when Moscow commenced military action and the IDP numbers touched six digits, the US and other Western media began focusing on what they termed as a humanitarian catastrophe.

There was a time (of idealist hope) when we of the developing world tried hard to establish a new information order as a forerunner to a new economic order. All hopes turned into dupes and the envisaged new ‘orders’ remain mirages.

[A steady stream of people were fleeing the conflict zone. Russian authorities estimated that 34,000 refugees had crossed the border ~ Zurab Kurtsikidze/European Pressphoto Agency]

Deafening silence

The IDP phenomenon in the Caucasus region receives much attention while equally or worse situations elsewhere in the world are virtually ignored, a case in point being the IDP crisis unfolding in the northern mainland of Sri Lanka known as the Wanni.

More than 150,000 people have been displaced, nearly half this number in the month of July alone. Yet there is scant mention of this ongoing tragedy in the global media. No reference to a “humanitarian catastrophe” here.
We in Sri Lanka have been afflicted with this IDP tragedy for decades due to the ongoing war between the Sri Lankan Government armed forces and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

Currently this brutal war is being waged in the Wanni. The arena of conflict is the territory that was/is under LTTE control.
The government of President Mahinda Rajapaksa is determined to defeat and dislodge the LTTE from areas dominated by it. The Tigers are equally determined to defend these areas and are resisting defiantly.

Positional warfare is all about acquiring and retaining territory. Thus, media attention is focused on areas won and areas lost.
This excessive focus on military manoeuvres has resulted in the plight of the civilians being ignored, overlooked or marginalised.
Mainstream historical accounts regale us about who won or lost and how battles were fought but are silent on the experiences undergone by ordinary people during times of war.

Of course, there are attempts now to rectify this situation by those who subscribe to a subaltern perspective of history. Still it is to literature that we must turn to if we want to know and understand what happened to the civilian population in the past when war was conducted in the name of “state, nation and religion.”

[IDPs fleeing war in Wanni]

Civilian predicament

There is an African saying about how grasshoppers get crushed even when elephants frolic about in the grass making love. If tiny insects are killed during times of elephantine love-making, then what is their position when pachyderms make war?
Likewise, what is the position of the ‘small people’ when mighty military machines clash? This is what is happening in the Wanni now.

At one level the armed forces advance triumphantly with the LTTE retreating ignominiously. On another level there is a corresponding mass-movement of displaced civilians. There are both ecstasy and agony!
If the military triumph ascends upward to an ecstatic zenith, the civilian predicament descends downward to a nadir of agony.
The armed forces are making rapid strides on the west of the A9 Highway or Kandy-Jaffna Road. Advances are also being made in the east of the A9 in the Manal Aaru / Weli Oya sector.

The area of control enjoyed by the LTTE is steadily shrinking in size. Militarily this is a welcome development to Colombo. But there is another side to this. The ‘captive’ civilian population is also getting ‘boxed in’ with the LTTE.
In a situation where the LTTE is inextricably intertwined with the civilian population like ‘fish in an ocean,’ the chances of civilians suffering collateral damage are very high.

The Tigers, on the other hand, are not known to be overly protective of civilians. While claiming to fight on their behalf, the LTTE has often callously exposed civilians to danger.
These incidents are then highlighted to seek sympathy from the Tamil diaspora and also for propaganda purposes against the government.

The government in turn adopts a two-fold approach. It accuses the LTTE of using civilians as a human shield. At times the government also denies these charges and points the finger at the LTTE saying this is part of Tiger misinformation and disinformation.
In recent times the government’s response to problems faced by civilians is conditioned by a strong attitude of hostility.

[Displaced tot-pic: tro kilinochchi]

Intolerance

The government opines that it is marching to victory over the LTTE. It suspects that there are forces planning to stop that march by pinpointing the civilian plight. So it is rather intolerant about representations made on behalf of civilians.
Attempts are being made to ‘pooh-pooh’ reports about the civilian predicament and describe efforts in that direction as Tiger propaganda. This, however, cannot obliterate the fact that civilians are getting displaced in large numbers and that an IDP crisis is unfolding in the Wanni.

With large regions of the Wanni being in perpetual flux, reliable, up-to-date IDP statistics are hard to come by. The UNCR website, for instance, has not updated figures after June 30.
Under these circumstances, the relatively latest and comparatively reliable figures are those released by the Inter-Agency Standing Committee (IASC) Sri Lanka Country Team (a collective of humanitarian organisations active in Sri Lanka).

In its latest situation report (No. 138) for the period July 31 to August 7, the IASC states that there are 112,019 IDPs from 27,562 families in Kilinochchi District; 31,080 persons from 8,917 families in Mullaitivu District; 8,054 persons from 2,696 families in Mannar District; 18,403 IDPs from 5,199 families in Vavuniya District; and 20, 736 persons from 6,129 families in Jaffna District.

Of these, the Jaffna District IDPs and the bulk of Mannar-Vavuniya District IDPs are in government-controlled areas.
There is, however, a distinct attribute peculiar perhaps to those living in the Wanni. According to NGO personnel with work experience in the Wanni, almost all the people there have at some time or the other been displaced from their homes.

Many have been displaced on more than one occasion. Even those who have been residing in their own homes have been temporarily displaced at times. Likewise, many people who have lived in places for years as permanent residents were at one time IDPs.

It would not be an exaggeration to say that all civilians in LTTE-controlled Wanni have been IDPs at some time or the other.
There is also the fact that thousands of people displaced by war and the tsunami were classified as IDPs prior to the current upheaval. Thus we have a situation of ‘old’ and ‘new’ IDPs in the Wanni.

Another sad aspect about recent dispersals is that several places regarded as havens of stability in the past are being affected. Iluppaikkadavai, Vellankulam, Mulangaavil, Thunukkaai, Mallavi, Kanakarayankulam, Mullaitivu, etc., were places providing refuge to thousands of IDP families. Now the people from these places are also on the move.

[Sep 2007: Internally Displaced Persons at Mullikulam at Murungan Maha Vidyalayam, Mannar district]

Situation report

The IASC situation report figures are only an indicator of the magnitude of the crisis. There has been much displacement after August 7 and it is an ongoing phenomenon. Furthermore, the exact figures of all IDPs are yet to be finalised or confirmed. It takes weeks sometimes for the ‘system’ to compile exact figures.

Besides, IDP movement is also extremely fluid depending upon threat perception and comfort levels of affected persons. The only silver lining in this dark cloud scenario seems to be the fact that most people had had enough time to move out from their homes.
As a result, many people were able to take away their important belongings as well as livestock and pets. This is a boon that has been denied to many IDPs in the past.

Still, the mass upheaval and inability of the authorities to address IDP needs quickly has deprived many of adequate shelter. Thousands are living in the open after constructing makeshift shelters.
Many converge near waterways and waterholes depending upon natural water for their needs. Firewood is collected from jungles and woods. Toilets are absent and cadjan fenced pits are used by women and the open spaces by men and children.

The problem about permanent housing and shelter is that no one is sure whether their current abodes are stable or safe. With the Army on the move and frontlines shifting rapidly, there is every chance that the people will be displaced again and again.
There is also the imperative need to provide dry rations and essentials to these IDPs. A substantial portion of these people were already classified as IDPs and were receiving aid. This distribution is now ruptured and needs to be restored to former levels as soon as possible. This does not mean that the aid received was ample or substantial.

IDPs are broadly divided into three categories and receive three types of relief assistance. One is provided by the Commissioner General of Essential Services (CGES); the other is provided by the World Food Programme (WFP), and the third are recipients of Samurdhi aid. The IDPs of the Wanni do not receive Samurdhi aid.
All people classified as having been displaced before August 2006 receive CGES assistance. All people displaced after August 2006 receive WFP aid. The IDP recipients are not given cash but only rations.

Assistance

The assistance provided by the government through CGES is woefully inadequate when compared to that given through WFP. The CGES provides assistance on a per capita basis. There is a ceiling of five for a family.
Thus, a family of five on CGES assistance will get items worth Rs. 1,260 for a month. These include 10 kilogrammes of rice, six kilogrammes of flour, four kilogrammes of sugar, four boxes of matches, five toothpowder packets and five toffees.

The WFP assistance, on the other hand, is much better than what the CGES provides, though leaving much to be desired.
WFP assistance provided to each individual for a month is valued at Rs. 1,265. The dry rations given for an individual on a monthly basis are 5.6 kilogrammes rice, 5.6 kilogrammes flour, 0.56 kilogrammes sugar, 1.68 kilogrammes lentils and 0.56 litres coconut oil.

It is patently clear that an unjust anomaly exists even in the disbursement of inadequate assistance by the CGES and WFP. While the CGES gives only Rs. 1,260 worth of dry rations for a family of five per month (nothing beyond), the WFP provides an individual with Rs. 1,260 worth of items per month.
There is an urgent necessity to increase the quantum of aid provided by the CGES or bring all IDPs under the assistance of the WFP.

The government machinery in the Wanni is hopelessly ill-equipped to deal with humanitarian crises like the current upheaval. This was demonstrated during the tsunami.

One reason for this inadequacy is due to systematic neglect and step-motherly treatment by Colombo. These government departments have not been given adequate money or materials or equipment to handle such crises.
While many Tamils would point to these as further proof of how Tamil areas have been deliberately given step-motherly treatment, the government could justify its position on the basis that the LTTE would utilise enhanced facilities for their own use and not for the people’s benefit.

[A family clearing the jungle near Kilinochchi, to build temporary shelter-pic: tro Kilinochchi]

Challenge facing NGOs

Against this backdrop, the challenge facing various aid organisations and Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) is the logistical difficulty of supplying essentials to the IDPs without delay.
What is happening is that international organisations and NGOs are finding it difficult to cater to IDP needs adequately and speedily because of governmental restrictions.

They are unable to provide food, medicine, temporary shelter, cooking utensils, sanitary, toilet and water facilities because of limited access. The halving of fuel requirements for NGOs in the Wanni by the government is cited as an example of such restrictions.

The government suspects that the LTTE gets a lot of help from some NGOs and fears that excess supply or unlimited access to the NGOs would only help the LTTE.
In fairness to the government, its misgiving about NGOs collaborating with the LTTE is not entirely unfounded. The government on more than one occasion has revealed details about how some NGO assets and materials have been utilised by the LTTE.

Nevertheless, it is the considered opinion of this column that the government must not place obstacles in the way of humanitarian organisations attempting to help the needy displaced.

The rights of the people cannot be subordinated to those of military necessity. The ‘sins’ of a few cannot be used as an excuse to penalise all NGOs and by extension the IDPs.
It is of the utmost importance that the government removes restrictions and enables humanitarian organisations to have adequate access (with perhaps greater vigilance) to the IDPs as quickly as possible.

Unless this is done, a gigantic crisis amounting to a humanitarian catastrophe could be in the making in the Wanni. The government may find it in the unenviable position of winning a militaristic battle and losing a humanitarian war.

The government must be aware that it is adopting a contradictory and possibly conflicting approach towards the civilian population in the Wanni.
The government rationale for the current military offensive is that of liberating the Tamil civilians from the tyrannical yoke of the LTTE. The government position is that these civilians are an integral part of Sri Lanka and that its war against the LTTE is its own, internal matter.

But the problems caused by the military drive and restrictions placed on humanitarian organisations to help civilian victims run contrary to professed claims. The Tamil civilians are not being treated in practice as citizens of this country but as denizens of an alien, hostile nation.
Therein lies the contradiction between professed objective and practical implementation as far as Colombo is concerned.

Terrible oppression

Kilinochchi’s conduct towards the Tamil civilians has been callous and reprehensible.
The LTTE also claims to be waging war to liberate the Tamil people from Sinhala oppression. But in practice the Tigers have imposed terrible oppression on the Tamil people in the Wanni.
Today the LTTE project of Tamil Eelam is in shambles and the Tamil people are facing a humanitarian catastrophe. The least that the Tigers could do is to let the suffering Tamil people depart to safer areas.

Instead, what the LTTE has been doing is to direct and drive the people further into the interior of Tiger-controlled areas. This process began when the LTTE forced the IDPs housed at Madhu Church premises to move out.
Thereafter, the LTTE made sure that dispersals caused by military escalation did not result in displaced civilians moving into government-controlled areas. They were compelled to move further into LTTE areas; the notable exception being the people of Musali Division and some areas of Naanaattaan and Manthai West in Mannar District.

Presently the IDPs are moving into areas like Akkaraayan, Vannerikulam and Vannivilaankulam on the west of the A9 and to areas between Oddusuddan, Mulliyawalai and Puthukudiyiruppu, far away from government lines of control. This indicates that the LTTE intends using these helpless IDPs as some form of a human shield.
If sufficient pressure is mounted on Colombo by the Western nations and India to desist from endangering the civilians, then there is a remote possibility that a cessation of hostilities could be brought about.

This could help the tigers to freeze military positions at the current level and retain some territory. Having obtained a respite, the LTTE would be able to recoup losses and formulate fresh plans.
The government, however, is determined to pursue war relentlessly. The pursuit of war with the prospect of crushing the LTTE is the sustaining basis of this regime.
The conventional belief is that this single-minded motivation of the Rajapaksa regime is what sets it apart from previous regimes. Any perceived slowdown, therefore, could affect the very basis of its existence.

Civilian casualties

Thus, the government could disregard the ‘human shield’ deterrent and forge ahead with its military push. In that eventuality, there would be some civilian casualties and the LTTE would capitalise on that by deriving propaganda mileage.
It must be noted that civilian casualties have indeed been comparatively few in the fighting so far. Some civilians have been killed and some injured through aerial bombardment and artillery shelling.
The most notable among those sustaining injuries were Imelda Sukumar, the Mullaitivu District Government Agent and the spouse of Mullaitivu District Medical Officer Dr. M. Shanmugarajah.

The important thing is that there are practically no civilian casualties when troops advance into territory conquered after intense fighting. This is what happened in October 1987 during ‘Operation Pawan,’ when the Indian Army moved into Jaffna town.
This aspect of the fighting has not been lost sight of. Several cabinet ministers from Rohitha Bogollagama to Keheliya Rambukwella have proudly referred to the absence of civilian casualties when the armed forces capture territory.

This absence of civilian casualties is due to the absence of civilians themselves when the Army moves forward. Indirect notice of the Army’s intentions is given by aerial bombardment and artillery shelling of a particular target region.
The agitated civilians then move out of the area. The LTTE ensures that they move deep into Tiger territory. So the target area is virtually empty when the Army moves in. This strategy was practised successfully in the east. It is now being followed with some modification in the north.

However, the LTTE tactic of herding displaced civilians into particular regions and preventing them from moving out would be an impediment to military strategy. Since the LTTE would be enmeshed with the civilians and situate military installations amidst civilian dwellings, the security forces would face a catch 22 dilemma.
If they relax momentum on account of civilians and ease up on military pressure, the LTTE would be let off the hook. If, on the other hand, the armed forces bomb and shell regardless of the human shield, there could be massive loss of civilian life and limb.

[Boy in hammock-pic: tro kilinochchi]

Tamil Nadu tinderbox

This in turn would result in fostering a negative image of the armed forces and also could cause other effects. The tinderbox that is Tamil Nadu could be ignited at election time, leading to unintended and unforeseeable consequences.
There may also be another dangerous reason for current LTTE behaviour. This column has consistently maintained that the LTTE is not a spent force and that the Tigers though ‘down’ are certainly not ‘out.’

It appears that the LTTE, after offering stiff resistance, is slowly withdrawing from areas to the west of the A9. The Tigers are forcing the people also to move into areas east of the A9. This would result in areas to the west of the A9 being totally bereft of Tamils both civilians and Tigers.

The north western sector of the Wanni would be populated solely by ‘Sinhala’ members of the armed forces. This would render them militarily vulnerable. They would be spread thin over a wide area, making them easy targets.
A variation of the earlier ‘Oyatha Alaigal’ or ‘Ceaseless Waves’ Operation could be on the cards. More importantly, the LTTE could unleash an ‘unknown’ calamity on the forces concentrated in that sector.

The LTTE is yet to expose its full arsenal and the explosive potential in Prabhakaran’s possession could be formidable. The LTTE’s nascent Air Wing is now dormant. Again, its potential has not been fully realised. The Air Tiger capacity for wreaking destruction remains unknown and unrealised.
There is also the danger of chemical warfare. Former LTTE Eastern Commander “Col.” Karuna has warned of such a possibility. Karuna understands the mindset of Prabhakaran and Pottu Amman well. His pronouncements cannot and must not be dismissed lightly.

If only ‘Sinhala’ soldiers are physically present between the A9 and the sea on the north west, the environment could be conducive for chemical warfare depending on the direction of the wind.
Of course, the LTTE would be the world’s ‘pariah’ and international repercussions could be terrible. There could be a massacre of Tamils in the south. But these would be of little consequence to Prabhakaran in matters of literal and metaphorical life and death. Besides, at the end of this human carnage and catastrophe, de facto partition may materialise.
These are but possibilities in the realm of speculation. Such fears may be proved liars. The only reality at present is the war that envelopes the Wanni and aggravates civilian predicament.

Guiding principles

The UNHCR formulated some guiding principles to be followed in the case of IDPs. Though not legally binding, these 30 principles set out clearly the rights of affected IDPs and the obligations of host entities towards them.
They are too numerous and detailed to elaborate in a newspaper article but anyone reading them would discover that they are not being adopted as far as the Wanni displaced are concerned.

Both the government and LTTE, through acts of omission and commission, are flouting them flagrantly; some by the government, some by the LTTE and some by both. The end result is that of the IDPs being victimised further.
With escalating and intensifying fighting, there is no doubt that the conflict would get dirty, bloody and brutal in the near future. In that context, the humanitarian crisis of displaced persons could evolve into a humanitarian tragedy. What, then, is the alternative?

Given the prevailing politico-military realities, one cannot see Colombo calling off the war or even declaring a temporary ceasefire unless there is overwhelming external pressure or if a debilitating military blow is delivered internally.
Under these circumstances, the only humanitarian option seems to be that of creating an opportunity for the helpless IDP population to leave the theatre of war and seek refuge in government controlled areas.

Already more than 500 such persons have risked Tiger wrath and left LTTE areas clandestinely to seek safety in government controlled areas. Such people have been housed in two camps set up in Kalimottai and Sirukandal in mainland Mannar.
These people have been restricted right of movement and are kept in conditions amounting to detention. The government has been criticised by human rights organisations on this count.

What is essential therefore is to let IDPs from the Wanni safely reach government areas and then house them with dignity and decency. Many NGO personnel this column spoke to were confident that basic comfort and amenities could be provided to IDPs within two weeks of arrival.

They cite the eastern precedent of Vakarai and Paduvaankarai, where nearly 200, 000 IDPs were catered to within two to three weeks of arrival in government-controlled areas. In Batticaloa the LTTE allowed civilians to leave after the Tigers themselves decided to withdraw and relocate to the north. But in the north this is unlikely as the LTTE has nowhere to go.

[Displaced Families-tro Kilinochchi]

Last bastion

The Wanni is the rear base and last bastion of the Tigers. Therefore, the LTTE is most likely to hold on to the civilians as some form of a human shield. In spite of this, the demand must be made of the LTTE that it should let the civilian population go if the people desire so.

Just as the government cannot deprive its civilian population of its rights and shirk its obligations towards the people on account of military exigencies, the Tigers too cannot oppress the Tamil civilian population for its own military imperatives.
There may be several Tamil civilians in the Wanni who would not want to seek refuge in government-controlled areas. These may be families of Tiger cadres and leaders, families of LTTE ‘martyrs’ and those who worked at LTTE institutions.

But there is also a very large segment that would prefer to leave the Wanni for reasons of safety and to get basic rights such as food, water, sleep and basic amenities. Such people should be allowed to leave the Wanni voluntarily by the LTTE.
The services of the ICRC and UNHCR should be enlisted and a human corridor set up for suffering IDPs to leave the Wanni. Partial and/or temporary ceasefires should be declared, observed and respected by both sides to facilitate such IDP movement.

The role of India and the international community is of crucial importance in this humanitarian enterprise. The conspicuous silence of the international community and India over civilian predicament is both appalling and perplexing.
There is, however, a crying need for these actors to take the initiative in this regard. Only then can a humanitarian corridor be created and opportunity provided for IDPs to get out of the Wanni.

If such an opening for IDP movement out of LTTE-controlled Wanni is not created, the consequences could be horrible. With civilians getting crammed into limited and rapidly shrinking space on the one hand and an increasingly aggressive Army on the other, a tragic humanitarian catastrophe may be unavoidable.

DBS Jeyaraj can be reached at: djeyaraj2005@yahoo.com

[Displaced families]

Government aerial bombardment and artillery shelling since May has forced more than 70,000 people to flee their homes, primarily in Kilinochchi and Mulaitivu districts.

Amnesty International has established that around a third of these families are living in the open air with no shelter. Many cannot receive food, tarpaulin for temporary shelters and fuel because of a lack of access into LTTE-controlled areas and restrictions on goods going through Omanthai - the crossing point between government-controll ed territory and that held by the LTTE. Some families have been forced to move several times.

In the LTTE-controlled Wanni area, the Tigers have hindered thousands of families from moving to safer places by imposing a strict pass system and, in some instances, forcing some family members to stay behind to ensure the return of the rest of the family. These measures seem designed in part to use civilians as a buffer against government forces -- a serious violation of international humanitarian law. The LTTE has also engaged in forced recruitment.

Lack of cement to build adequate toilets and washrooms has forced people to use open bathing facilities. The lack of adequate privacy for women and girls has led to a notable increase in reports of sexual and gender based violence.

Amnesty International has also received reports that the government is housing those who have been able to leave LTTE areas in temporary shelters that often operate as de facto detention centres. Witnesses from Kalimoddai camp in Mannar district told Amnesty International that more than 200 families who are held there cannot exit the camp for any reason (except to go to school) without obtaining a pass from the government’s security forces.

“Both sides to this long conflict have again shown that they will jeopardize the lives of thousands of ordinary people in the pursuit of military objectives,” said Yolanda Foster. “In the absence of independent international monitors, Sri Lankan civilians lack protection and remain at the mercy of two forces with long records of abuse.”

Background

The Sri Lankan military has launched a major offensive to reclaim areas of the north and east previously controlled by the LTTE. Families have been multiply displaced. According to UNHCR, as of 30 June, there are some 467,000 individuals displaced by conflict in Sri Lanka’s north and east. This figure includes an estimated 194,900 persons who were displaced after fighting intensified in April 2006.

Of the assassination of politicians during the past years, the killings of two cabinet ministers Hon. Lakshman Kadirgamar and Jeyaraj Fernandopulle, two outstanding speakers, both clever lawyers, both valiant defenders of the policies of the Present Government, are an irreparable loss to our nation.

The protective security team consists of the Personal security officer . (PSO), Ring round or Close protection team, Advance security team, Spotters, counter surveillance team , back up armed squad, security teams at office and residence, sweeping team and any other additional unit necessary to ensure adequate and complete protection to the VIP, throughout the day and night.

It is not the number of personnel or the number of armed commandos that matters. Protection of a VIP is not a routine exercise, not a crowd control task, but a serious task that requires alertness, commitment, intelligence and physical fitness. The (PSO) who is selected should be chosen on suitability and should not be selected at the personal request of the VIP, as some one fitting the description of "Ape Minihek". The primary task of the (PSO) is to guard the physical body of the VIP, from any physical attack or attack by fire arm, supported by the Ring round team. Literally and in reality he has to be ready to protect the VIP risking his own life. Instances of many Personal security officers and other body guards being killed along with those whom they were protecting due to assassinations are a plenty.

Let me recall the manner in which Mr. KADIRGAMAR was assassinated. Most of us have seen the film "Day of the Jackal". These types of films and many other documentary films are screened at training sessions for the officers engaged in protective security. Video recordings of real incidents of attacks and assassinations of VIPs, recorded by various agencies are regularly shown to educate those engaged in protective security to learn the various and innovative methods and ruses used by the assassins to get at their targets and to take counter measures that need be taken to thwart any attempts by the agents of the enemies. Did not the assassin learn from this film how to get at the target?.

Why is it that the (PSO) the protective team, and the team providing security at his house at Buller’s lane fail miserably to study the possible methods that could be used to get at the minister who was used to a routine of taking a swim and thus unwittingly offering himself as a target.

An elementary and logical precaution was to keep all "High rise" buildings around the residence under constant surveillance, to observe any suspicious movements. From what was reported, the window of the upper floor of the building, opens directly towards the swimming pool, of the residence of the late Minister.

The team of assassins is said to have conducted reconnaissance for a number of days, holed up in the upper floor, through this window, before they hit the target and escaped from the scene. It was an open target practice invitation even to an amateur gunman to get at the target without any hindrance. If there was intelligent foresight, this particular floor and the window area necessarily should have been the prime point of constant surveillance by the protective team.

If they had been more alert, this particular floor and the window could have been used by the protective team to be an observation post had they approached the chief occupant who was a son of a retired senior Police officer, he would have willingly allowed this particular floor for the use of the protection team.

There are few more "High rise" buildings abounding the residence from where there was a clear view of the swimming pool and the garden of the residence of the Minister. Were these buildings kept under constant watch? Were the occupants of these high rise buildings spoken to obtain their assistance to keep strangers from gaining access to these buildings? Members of the staff of a foreign mission residing in a house overlooking the residence of the late Minister are said to have declared that none of them were spoken to by the local law enforcement authorities to obtain their support or assistance to ensure that no outside elements infiltrated the enclave.

It was reported in the press that some arrests were made by the Police of some youths taking photographs or video recording the vicinity of the residence of the minister few days before the day of the assassination. Did the security detail of the Minister probe in detail the background of the persons arrested, did they have a view of the photographs and the video recordings taken into custody? Intelligence was available that the Minister was on the top of the "Hit" list. The security detail should have been ever vigilant to foil or prevent any attempts on the life of the Minister. If any one of them had the wisdom to look towards the surrounding "High rise" buildings, in particular the upper floor of the building at the corner, which had an unobstructed, clear view, from the window, he would have seen suspicious movements on the other side of the window, Especially on the fateful day that particular building and the window should have been closely watched during the time the Minister was in the open It was a costly lapse which gave the killers a free hand to get at their target and flee from the scene without being apprehended.

Let me now focus on the assassination of Hon. Minister Jeyaraj Fernandopulle. Here too the assassin or the suicide bomber was able to mingle with the crowd, come behind the Minister and kill him and many others. Press reports have already appeared indicating that the accountable agencies have started passing the buck. The organisers of the marathon run, the local Police officers, the security detail of the minister, the Police department and even the Minister had been blamed, for their failures and lapses in not taking adequate precautionary security measures.

Whenever a local political organiser or any organisers of sports or public functions organise meetings or functions, where a VIP has been extended an invitation to attend the function, it is mandatory that they must liaise with the local Police, before finalising the date, venue, time etc.

The Officer In Charge (OIC) of the local Police has to authorise the holding of the function, having checked the list of invitees or speakers, the, location where the meeting is to be held, the security threat the traffic control, crowd control and other relevant matters to ensure that the meeting, function and the sports event is conducted without any security and traffic snags. When it is confirmed that a politician VIP is billed to grace the occasion, the Officer In Charge (OIC) of the local Police, where the event is to be held, shall dictate the rules and conditions to the local organisers as to the location of the meeting, the security measures, and other details to ensure the protection of the VIP, and the participants.

To achieve success in preventing any harm to the VIP and others and any untoward incident, a co-ordinated plan should have been prepared and implemented.

A co-ordinating committee should have been set up comprising the local Police chief, the representatives from the organisers of the event, the Ministers Security Division (MSD), and the security unit of the Minister. It need not be emphasised that the Intelligence Service Division regularly updates and co-ordinates with the (MSD), on the level of threat and the intelligence gathered on any assassin who has been assigned to target the minister.

The venue should have been inspected well ahead, especially the previous night, swept and security cleared, and taken charge by placing guards at all entry points to prevent uninvited and unauthorised persons sneaking into the venue during the night. From what was observed from the video clippings and press photographs, it could be seen that the event was controlled and directed by the organisers of the marathon and not by any law enforcement officers, and that there was no apparent access and crowd control measures implemented by any agencies, but it was a free for all entry into the venue.

It has been confirmed that the Minister had arrived at the venue at the stipulated time but had gone away as the organisers were not ready to start the marathon. There had been a gap of about one to two hours before he came back. Was the place secured during this period of time, was entry to the venue restricted or were all persons physically checked before they were allowed entry into the venue? Whether it was a festive period or not, were adequate men deployed both in uniform and in mufti?. From what has been learnt from a high Police officer, there has been no co-ordination of the security arrangements between the relevant agencies and the most important Police officer, the Divisional Senior Superintendent was not adequately and properly kept informed of the details of the visit of the late Minister.

The Personal Security Officer (PSO) of the Minister should have built up complete confidence of the Minister, and earned implicit trust, where he was in a position to discuss all invitations extended to the minister, decide on the importance of accepting the invitation, based on the security of the minister, the risk, and to persuade the minister either to accept or decline the invitation. Ministers are invited by all and sundry to attend insignificant and unimportant events and functions. One cannot completely isolate the people’s representative to shun all public functions due to security reasons, however one has to strike a balance between personal security and pleasing the supporters.

The (PSO) by building up personal confidence and trust can insist that the Minister not to attend this event where there was no security at all. The venue was open not enclosed, there was no access control, it was in an open arena, allowing free entry into the venue. There were no preventive measures implemented or put into operation prior to and during the event to eliminate the risk of a suicide bomber getting closer to the Minister.

Suicide bombers are the deadliest killers, against whom there are no known safeguards if they come within striking distance of the target. However, many attempts have been thwarted by alert security personnel by preventing the bomber from approaching the target. Such preventive measures have resulted in the bomber being frustrated and blowing himself or herself up without achieving the assigned task of striking the target.

Officers who are trained and selected to be part of the protection team of a VIP have to be given regular "In House" training, and before they are inducted into the actual performance of duties they should be given specialised training.

In both assassinations there had been divided responsibility, where no one particular individual or agency taking the responsibility of being the sole person in authority. Many agencies are brought in to co-ordinate the implementation of the security plan, however one agency or designated head of the security detail should have taken command and control, to provide maximum security to the VIP, at his residence, his office, and wherever he traveled.

From what has been gathered from security personnel, the responsibility of providing security to the late Mr. KADIRGAMAR was divided between the Police and the Army, and there was no single officer co-ordinating the duties of the Police and the Army. Even in the case of the late Mr. Fernandopulle, many agencies were involved, in the organisation of the event and providing security at the venue. Here too it was evident, that in spite of the high security threat to the Minister, the law enforcement officers, and the protective security detail were not in control of the venue, but the organisers were observed engaging in crowd control and directing the Minister around the venue.

There has to be co-ordination between the relevant agencies, but the responsibility should not and cannot be divided. The co-ordination has to be under one head who should be responsible for the task assigned. The person entrusted with the responsibility should ensure that all other agencies involved with the security arrangement shall come under his command. Under the present security situation, all VVIPs are targets. Protecting them from assassins is an enormous task, which is risky and challenging.

It is very essential that a genuine effort is made after any such disaster to learn from the mistakes, which allowed the enemy to succeed, and to take meaningful and positive remedial steps to plug all the loopholes.

(The writer is a former senior Police officer and diplomat)

The claims and counter claims by Sri Lanka's warring parties in the current fighting have overshadowed civilian suffering and misery in the northern region.

Many Tamil civilians are trapped between the warring sides

No-one knows exactly how many civilians have been displaced since the fighting began last year, but it is estimated that more than 150,000 people are depending on the government and aid agencies for food and shelter in the north.

The UN refugee agency - UNHCR - last week warned that thousands of displaced people are in danger because of dwindling emergency aid stocks in the north.

Aid workers fear human suffering could intensify

The agency estimates that more than 60,000 people were displaced in July alone as a result of intense battles between the army and the rebels.

According to the UNHCR, supplies of food, shelter materials, water and fuel for transportation of civilians are running "dangerously low" for those attempting to escape the crossfire.

Stiff resistance

It is clear that the army has made significant gains in the last few months.

The Mannar district has now come under the control of the security forces and the rebels are in danger of losing strategically important naval bases and towns in other districts as well.

Unless there is a military debacle, it is possible that the government troops will gradually claw their way into the key rebel-held town of Kilinochchi sooner or later.

The strategy of the armed forces is clear. Heavy artillery shelling, prior to an operation, drives away the civilians and then they make their advance.

The silence of the international community... is disturbing Sri Lankan analyst DBS Jeyaraj

They have also opened many battle fronts to spread out the rebel fighters. Naturally, their air power and numerical superiority give them a clear edge.

However, despite recent losses the Tamil Tigers still hold considerable fighting ability to launch surprise counter attacks.

Contrary to some military claims, their core fighting formations are said to be still intact and they can easily adapt themselves to protracted guerrilla warfare.

That's why the Sri Lankan forces want to go after the Tamil Tigers instead of capturing only the territory.

"You can't just push them into the jungles and wait. You have to search for them and completely eradicate them. Only then peace can come," the Sri Lankan Defence Secretary, Gotabaya Rajapakse, told a British newspaper recently.

Obviously, this would leave many Tamils in rebel-controlled areas in further danger.

"The rebel military installations and civilian areas are mixed. If the army advances further and confines the rebels into a smaller region then civilian vulnerability will increase," says Sri Lankan analyst DBS Jeyaraj.

Civilian plight

The other option for the trapped civilians would be to leave the rebel-held areas.

Many people end up constantly on the move to escape the fighting

But there are hardly any avenues. The key roads are blocked due to the conflict and passages through interior roads are dangerous due to possible roadside bombs and landmines. Also, it is not clear whether the rebels would allow them to leave.

With children, women, cattle and some belongings, people are moving from one area to another in large numbers, as there are no safe havens or established refugee camps.

Likewise there are no toilets or bathing facilities and people sleep in the open despite the sweltering heat and mosquitoes.

The efforts by humanitarian agencies to deliver more aid are hindered by strict restrictions on the transport of goods into the region.

But the government says enough supplies are being sent to the rebel-controlled territory.

"There are no restrictions and there is no shortage. We send food and other essentials as per the request of the senior government official in those areas," says Sri Lankan army spokesman Brig Udaya Nanayakkara.

No international support

No one knows when or how the conflict will end. But Tamils feel that the international community could have done more to help them.

"The silence of the international community, especially by neighbouring India, over the displacement and suffering of Tamils is disturbing," says Mr Jeyaraj.

With no sign of a let up in the fighting, aid workers and Tamils fear that human suffering is set to increase in northern Sri Lanka. [courtesy: bbc.co.uk]

Tamil Translation of this article: தமிழ் பொது மக்களின் பரிதாப அவலம்

"China is using the space provided by India’s reluctance to sell weapons to Sri Lanka for political reasons to increase its influence in Sri Lanka’s strategic spectrum. So the possibility of the Hambantota project ending up as a remake of the Gwadar episode in Pakistan is very much there".

Extracts of the paper presented by Col.R.Hariharan, at the India-Taiwan interaction, jointly organised by the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the Federation of Chambers of Commerce & Industry-Tamil Nadu Chapter at Chennai on August 1, 2008:

China is aiming to quadruple its per capita GDP to $ 3200 by 2020 from $ 800 per capita attained in 2000. This would imply an average annual economic growth of 7.2% till 2020. In order to attain this, China will have to keep meeting the enormous appetite of its manufacturing economy for raw material and energy resources. On the other hand, it has to open up new markets for Chinese products while keeping the competitive economies of Asia and Americas at bay. Though this might be viewed as an exercise in international trade, it has to be driven by international relations backed by strategic defence capability.

China’s single minded pursuit for accessing resources has increased its visibility in Asia, Africa and South America. This has also made China support some of the most notorious regimes shunned by the rest of the world including Myanmar, Sudan, and Zimbabwe. At the same time it has embarked upon strategic infrastructure development in friendly countries that would improve China’s strategic reach.

[Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa meets with Chinese workers at the Hambantota Port Development Project site. (Picture by Sudath Silva)]

This is reflected in China’s growing influence in South Asia where its presence is being firmed up in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, and possibly in Nepal at a future date. This has been a cause of security concern not only for India but also for the U.S.

China’s interest in South Asia

South Asia’s geographic location, midway between the oil rich Middle East and the South East Asian regions, lends it strategic importance. South Asia borders most of China’s sensitive southern boundary. This gives China the strategic option of opening direct access through South Asia to the international sea lanes of Indian Ocean. The Indian Ocean region has always been the scene of power play between Russia, the US and the West, and the theocratic Islamic states because 75 % of global merchant shipping passes through it.

In recent times, South Asia has also become a source of inspiration for Jihadi terrorism and separatism in China. Western parts of South Asia bordering China had been the fountainhead of Jihadi terrorism inspiring fellow Muslims across the borders in Xinjiang province. Similarly, the presence of large number of Tibetan refugees in India and Nepal with strong anti-Chinese sentiments had always been a source of potential trouble for China.

On the other hand South Asia holds a number of attractions for China. The region has a growing economy of over 1.5 billion people in different stages of economic and social development. Its huge, young population represent an enormous and untapped market for Chinese goods. Major political, economic and social problems within and between South Asian nations offer fertile ground for increasing China’s influence through political, military and economic means. The region has considerable natural resources including coal, iron ore, natural gas and oil waiting to be fully exploited.

The India factor

In developing its relations with South Asian nations China has to contend with Indian sensitivities. India borders seven of the eight South Asian nations and dwarfs them both geographically and population wise. This makes it easy for India to physically influence, if not intervene, its neighbouring countries. India’s huge population forms the bulk of South Asia’s teeming millions. Historically, strong Indian influence has been permeating the social, cultural and religious life of its neighbours. As a result India wields a strong political clout unmatched by any other county in this region.

India nearly a decade long economic boom ago is pushing it into the realms of becoming a global economic power by 2050. India’s technology training institutions, churning out large number of engineers and professionals, are making India a reservoir of qualified technology professionals. This has also enabled India to become a world leader in software development. India’s traditional entrepreneurial skill, coupled with sizeable natural resources, gives it a strong economic clout in the region. As India’s share of global trade increases, Indian industrial houses are nursing ambitions to become global players. India is also striving to expand its manufacturing base. It is also in the quest for oil and gas resources all over the world, though on a much smaller scale than China.

The Indian growth model, despite operating within the constraints of being the largest functional democracy in the world, offers a strong contrast to the Chinese single-party model of monolithic development. India’s democratic polity has given it political stability unmatched by most of the other South Asian nations. Its large and modern armed forces serve as guardians of democracy. This is in stark contrast to some other countries of the region i.e., Pakistan and Bangladesh where armed forces had usurped power and throttled democracy.

The failure of India and China to amicably resolve rival territorial claims along the largely unmarked boundary following China’s occupation of large chunks of territory in Aksai Chin and other border areas resulted in the two countries going to war in 1962. The 1962 war had kindled strong suspicion in India about China’s strategic intentions in the region. It had also generated anti-Chinese feeling in India that persists to this day. Despite many rounds of talks between the two countries, the border dispute remains unresolved and continues to cramp the free articulation of Sino-Indian relations.

A major irritant for China in India is the presence of the Tibetan spiritual leader Dalai Lama and his followers in exile, who are the visible face of Tibetan freedom. The presence of a large Tibetan refugee population in India clamouring for Tibetan independence is major cause of security concern for China. The Tibetan issue continues to be another rider in the development of smooth relations between India and China.

In recent years China’s has been viewing with growing concern India’s emergence as a dominant regional military power with nuclear weapon and missile capability. Its large armed forces are being modernised and the Indian navy is on way to acquire blue water capability. The progressive growth of India-US security synergies, adding strength to the strategic security reach of both the powers, has further fuelled China’s security concerns.

These strategic factors coupled with the growing economic muscle have made India a potential challenger to the growth of China’s influence on the South Asian turf. In tandem with the U.S., India could also become a formidable contender for power in other parts of the world in the coming years.

At the same time, India also holds some positive attractions for China. Its growing economy and very large middle class provide an attractive consumer market for Chinese goods. For the resource hungry China, India’s large coal, manganese and iron ore reserves are useful. India also finds doing business with China an attractive proposition and India-China two-way trade had been booming despite the frosty relations. It is set to reach $ 25 billion by 2010.

China’s South Asia strategy

The Chinese have tried to maintain cordial and correct relations with India despite frequent reiteration of their territorial claims. China has also been expanding the areas of cooperation with India on issues affecting the interest of both the countries. A small beginning has been made in conducting joint training exercise between two armies of the two countries. This strategy has enabled China to keep India’ concerns at bay, even as it increased its influence in India’s neighbourhood. Though the shadow of India continues to loom large over its neighbours, China has succeeded in improving bilateral relations with each one of them.

The very size of India and its seemingly all pervading soft power kindle a sense of disquiet if not fear among some of India’s neighbours. This ‘Indian bogey’ is also used as a pet ploy in the political gamesmanship of countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nepal. Though India had taken remedial measures, for historical reasons the ‘bogey’ is likely to continue to hobble Indian articulation in the region. China appears to have leveraged itself as the answer to ward off the Indian enigma in these countries.

For instance, Pakistan and Bangladesh have inherited a historical sense of insecurity about India after Pakistan was created in 1947. This provided a convenient foothold for China to step in. India’s economic domination of its neighbours has invariably resulted in lopsided trade imbalance tilted in India’s favour. Building better trade relations with China offers a way for them to balance this tilt. There is widespread fear of Indian cultural melange submerging the national and ethnic identity of some of the small neighbours. These fears are compounded by the physical threat posed by India’s large armed forces.. In the case of Nepal and Sri Lanka this fear is latent though they have enjoyed friendly ties with India most of the time.

China appears to have prioritised its relationship with Pakistan and Bangladesh occupying the top slot. These two nations have built symbiotic relations with China over the years resulting in the creation of infrastructural and military assets that would come in handy for China, when required. They are followed by Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, Nepal, and Maldives in the Chinese order of priority.

Development of China-Afghanistan relations is hobbled by two factors: China’s multi-faceted relationship with Pakistan, and Kabul’s close relationship with India. Afghanistan has always enjoyed a cordial relationship with India, except perhaps during the period of Taliban rule. Their relationship is driven by historicity as much as their strategic synergies where they see Pakistan ranged against them. India’s liberal development aid to the Karzai government and the involvement of Indian development task force in executing vital infrastructure projects in Afghanistan underline the strong bonds being built between them. Moreover, Afghanistan’s survival preoccupation while combating Jihadi terrorism and the all pervasive American presence there has left limited space for China to develop better relationship.

But despite this setting, Afghanistan remains a vital part of China’s energy infrastructure linking China with Pakistan, Iran and the oil rich Central Asian nations. So it came as no surprise when China secured in May 2008 the $3.5 billion Aynak copper field project in the remote Logar Province, making it the largest foreign direct investment project in the Afghan history. The Aynak copper field probably contains ore worth up to $88 billion. Significantly, the Chinese bid included the cost of building a 400 MW coal based power plant and a railway line from western China through Tajikistan and Afghanistan to Pakistan. China’s readiness to make such a large investment in a troubled region underscores its strategic significance for her, apart from its value in developing Western China.

Bhutan has always enjoyed cordial relations with India. China has territorial claims in Bhutan which would probably be settled only when India and China resolve their border dispute. This ‘India factor’ and Bhutan’s