transcurrents

LTTE – TNA Impose boycott of poll on Tamil people

November 14th, 2005

The presidential election campaign of Ranil Wickremasinghe has been dealt a terrific jolt by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam organization and its appendage the Tamil National Alliance.

In one decisive stroke the LTTE and TNA have dispelled the notion that they were extending tacit support to the United National Party candidate and Opposition Leader.

Earlier most analysts and media had been of the mindset that the tigers were backing Wickremasinghe. The mainspring of his rival Mahinda Rajapakse’s campaign had been on these lines.

There was a general impression gaining ground that Rajapakse would get more majority community votes and Wickremasinghe the bulk of minority community votes.

The UNP alliance with the Sri Lanka Muslim Congress and Ceylon Workers Congress ensured the majority of Muslim and Plantation Tamil votes. The LTTE and TNA were expected to deliver the Sri Lankan vote through covert and overt means respectively.

Now the LTTE – TNA says that the Tamils will be “neutral” in the election. There is no direct appeal to the Tamils asking them to vote against Wickremasinghe or vote for a candidate other than Ranil but a great emphasis is laid on the “useless” nature of the poll. There is no direct call for a Tamil boycott so far but indirectly it is being projected that Tamil voters would prefer to stay away.

A decision was reached after a three hour conclave at Kilinochchi between the LTTE and TNA. The TNA has no mind of its own but faithfully echoes the diktat laid down by its political master the LTTE. 21 of 22 TNA Parliamentarians attended the meeting presided over by Suppiah Paramu Thamilselvan the tiger political commissar. Only Gajendrakumar Ponnambalam away in USA was absent.

Addressing the media was senior Tamil leader and Trincomalee district MP Rajavarothayam Sambandan. Though present at the media meet Thamilselvan remained pointedly silent.

“Neither the TNA nor the LTTE will advise people not to vote. We will not be in their way, blocking them from exercising their democratic right. But all signs are, the decision not to show interest in the Presidential election is gathering momentum among the Tamils. That is what we could gather from our political experience and interaction with the people,” the veteran politician from Trincomalee observed.

“Tamil residents in NorthEast are fully aware of the conduct of the two major Sinhala parties. They have been through and suffered through periods under these parties’ governance. We know and understand Tamil peoples’ frame of mind. We have no doubt that they are in full agreement with our thinking,” Sampanthan told the media.

“We discussed in depth and exchanged our views on the situation related to the elections and what historical significance our participation in the elections is going to be for the future of our people.

“There was no doubt in any of the participants’ mind that the Presidential election will not produce any positive shift in the Southern Polity’s thinking and approach that will in anyway result in any progressive advance towards resolving the Tamil question.

“That is why we decided that it is a futile exercise to show any interest in the elecions,” Sampanthan told the media.

Later Thamilselvan spoke over the Tamil Eelam National Television where he reiterated the stance outlined by Sambandan. “Our people are well – experienced in politics and politically mature. The view gathering strength among them is that they should keep away from the poll. That is their decision. We will be supportive of them in this decision” said Thamilselvan.

Despite the assertions that the Tamil people have made their choice and that the LTTE – TNA are simply being supportive the reality is that the tigers want a boycott of the election. It is a decision imposed from above on the people and not one emanating upward from grassroot level.

” We know and understand Tamil peoples’ frame of mind. We have no doubt that they are in full agreement with our thinking,” was how LTTE mouthpiece “Tamilnet” reported Sambandan’s comment.. Saying the Tamil people were “in full agreement with our thinking” was a freudian slip made by him in this regard.

Though the LTTE and TNA say that they will not stand in the way of Tamils desiring to vote developments on ground indicate otherwise. Various front organizations of the LTTE have been issuing statements, distributing leaflets and putting up posters in Jaffna asking people to boycott the election. The LTTE also officially disowned a leaflet issued in its name calling for voting.

When postal voting commenced in Jaffna a tiger backed student organization began an active campaign urging a boycott. This resulted in only about 40% of those eligible voting from Jaffna. The tiger controlled Kilinochchi registered a zero count.

Earlier when the media queried about people voting from tiger controlled areas SP Thamilselvan replied that no special arrangements will be made to transport them to the cluster booths in Government controlled areas. He also said that no special concession would be given those going out to vote and that they would face normal security checks and searches. The menacing threat was clear. People venturing to vote will be “identified” and “sanctioned”.

The important question now is whether the LTTE will merely encourage a boycott indirectly or take direct measures to enforce a strict and widespread boycott of votes. If the tigers decide on flexing muscle to bring about a massive boycott then a string of related acts of omission and commission could be expected .

Even if the number of voters boycotting the poll as a result of direct and indirect LTTE pressure cannot be quantified one thing is clear. The loser in this is going to be Ranil Wickremasinghe. The votes that he would have obtained under normal circumstances will now decrease.

Few Tamil votes will go to Rajapakse but a boycott is certainly favourable to him. In the event that Rajapakse and Wickremasinghe are neck to neck on the basis of votes from the rest the Sri Lankan Tamil vote could have clinched victory for Wickremasinghe.

At the Kilinochchi the R. Sambandan did not refer disparagingly to Rajapakse or Wickremasinghe. He emphasised a general apathy on the part of Tamils as opposed to antipathy towards particular candidates.

Other tiger media in Sri Lanka and abroad have not been so discreet. They have begun over the past few days an intensive onslaught. The bulk of criticism is levelled not against Rajapakse the Sinhala “hawk” but against Wickremasinghe the perceived “dove”.

Mahinda Rajapakse and the SLFP – JVP – JHU alliance is depicted as the known devil. The Tamils know their stance and so know where they stand with Rajapakse. Ranil Wickremasinghe and his party are now painted not as the unknown angel but an unknown devil. Wickremasinghe;s stance is ambiguous and so more dangerous it is argued.

Rajapakse is the strident cobra but Wickremasinghe is a silent viper. One is the “seerikkadikkum Naham” (the naya that hisses and strikes). The other is the “seeraamal kadikkum pidaian” (the polonga that bites without hissing). The latter is deadlier than the former.

The immediate target of the proposed boycott therefore is Wickremasinghe. If the status quo is transformed as a consequence of the boycott he stands to lose greatly. The objective of the entire LTTE – TNA exercise seems to be exactly that. The greater the boycott the lesser Wickremasinghe’s chances of victory

The comments made by Ranil Wickremasinghe at Palaly, the purported speech made by Naveen Dissanayake at Ginigathena and the interview given by Milinda Moragoda to an English daily are now being used to justify the anti – Ranil boycott.

What is being glossed over in this is the frontal onslaught launched against Wickremasinghe by former Eelam Revolutionary Organization (EROS) leader Balakumaran now a trusted deputy of Pirapakaran.It was that “lecture” over “Voice of Tigers” radio that opened the floodgates of anti – Ranil sentiment.

Basically the LTTE is disillusioned and disappointed with Wickremasinghe. It must be understood that the manifesto and conduct of Wickremasinghe’s campaign was not enough for the LTTE to support it openly without losing credibility in the eyes of the Tamils. But if the TNA was allowed by the LTTE to negotiate with the UNP the situation may have been different.I

t is however a moot point whether the call for a boycott – direct or indirect – will help the LTTE in the long run. It is possible that a Wickremasinghe defeat made possible through a tiger boycott would strengthen the victor Rajapakse in an unimaginable manner.

The match however is not over for Wickremasinghe. The LTTE has not called for an open boycott. It is highly unlikely that such a boycott will be successful in the Norh – East. Apart from the Sinhala and Muslim voters even the Tamil voter cannot be controlled easily. If he or she felt it was necessary to vote then it would be difficult to impose restrictions without terror and violence. Doing so would undermine LTTE image further. This is why the LTTE is not calling for a public boycott. If voters keep away in large numbers it would claim success. But if people vote in large numbers it would say the decision was that of the people.

Let us also not forget that the people were getting ready to vote in large numbers when the LTTE made its intervention. This is a decision imposed from the top. As for the people there were many valid reasons to vote. This is no ordinary election. The Sinhala supremacist alliance of Rajapakse seeks to undermine the minorities and reverse the road to a solution. Whatever Wickremasinghe’s faults he will not espouse the policies outlined by Rajapakse. As the Catholic Bishops have appealed it is necessary for the people to vote and vote wisely.

As for the LTTE and TNA the attempt to encourage a Tamil boycott is one more exercise in political futilty. Once again the Tamils are to be driven into bleak wilderness. The Presidential election is one opprtunity for the minorities to exercise their clout. The Muslims and Plantation Tamils are grasping that eagerly but Sri Lankan Tamils are being asked to forgo that chance.It is imperative that the racial and religious minorities should stand together against the Sinhala – Buddhist juggernaut threatening to crush them. The LTTE – TNA call for a boycott is nothing but a betrayal in that context.

With only a few days to go for the election it is unclear about what lies ahead. Will the Tamils defy the LTTE and vote in large numbers? Will the LTTE realise its blunder and ease up on its stance? Will the UNP change tactics and pander to Sinhala hardline sentiments at this late stage? One does not know.

But what one knows is that a victory for Sinhala hawks due to a Tamil boycott is a tragic development indeed. Wickremasinghe has lost support among Sinhala voters due to his perceived sympathy for the tigers. Let it not be forgotten that it was he who de – proscribed the LTTE and signed a ceasefire agreement. For the Tamils to go against him at this late stage would amount to a betrayal. The only “sin” he has committed is taking the Tamils for granted. The LTTE does not hold a monopoly on political wisdom. The people defied the LTTE and stayed back in Jaffnad during Riviresa in 1995. That is how Jaffna remains a Tamil region still. If the people followed the LTTE blindly it would have been a disaster.

Likewise the situation requires a peoples initiative. The Tamils should vote to safeguard their interests. It is one thing for Rajapakse to win despite Tamils voting. But it is entirely another matter for him to win due to a Tamil boycott. Besides a boycott means the motley crew of Tamils supporting Mahinda can rig polls with ease. The Tamil people and all right thinking Sri Lankans must realise that despite Wickremasinghe’s shortcomings the chances of war under his presidency are less than that of Rajapakse. It is the Tamils who bear the brunt of war. Let them not be indirectly responsible for inviting war upon themselves through boycotting polls.

Even the LTTE must realise that a boycott is like cutting the nose off to spite the face. Also the LTTE case will be strengthened greatly if it supported voting at an election and the Sinhala hardliners won despite it. On the other hand a Rajapakse victory due to a tiger inspired boycott will not be helpful to the LTTE internationally. It will be seen as a tiger engineered victory to ensure outbreak of war. Such a perception will be harmful to the LTTE in the long run.

Hope springs eternal. Let us hope then that what has happened is only a tempest in a tea cup and all parties concerned act quickly to prevent more damage. Too much is at stake in this election. The forces of chauvinism have to be opposed not through bullet but by the ballot.The Tamil people should not relegate themselves or allow themselves to be relegated to the sidelines as spectators. They cannot remain isolated as the consequences of the election will definitely affect them too.

The Tigers, TNA and Tamils must realise that any realistic solution cannot be worked out by the “Sinhala” side alone. It requires the cooperation and participation of all particularly the LTTE. Likewise the Tamils cannot boycott a Presidential election and imagine themselves to be immune from the fall – out. Whatever the result its consequences will certainly affect them. It is better therefore to try and influence the verdict to some extent at least in a manner favourable to them. For this the Tamils must vote regardless of any call for a boycott.

Entry Filed under: MinorMatters