Will there be a third JVP uprising?
January 27th, 2008
by Dr.Vickramabahu Karunaratne
The Government hastily removed the ill-fated health services department circular. It appeared like a bomb blast, disturbing the entire worker population and it disappeared before one could say ‘why?’
It was undoubtedly a threat posed to organised workers in general, as it challenged the right to strike and protest. It clearly amounted to a violation of rights guaranteed under labour regulations and several international agreements signed by respective governments.
But after the budget victory, the Government thought it was in a position to dictate such terms to the Left oriented working-class movement. Also, it was considered to be very necessary.
However, it was not taken seriously by the JVP-oriented trade union leaders. Maybe, as long as the Government is fully committed to the war in the North, the JVP is not bothered about the rights of the workers.
Now the situation has quickly changed and the Government has decided not to confront the workers’ movement. The doctors’ strike must also have been an eye-opener for the Government. The GMOA totally ignored the circular and the President himself came out for a discussion with the union, and settled the immediate issue. He does not want to sever his connections with reformist trade union leaders. At least, not yet.
Suffering masses
However, President Mahinda Rajapaksa cannot cover up the greedy Mudalali class that gets fatter and fatter at the expense of the suffering masses. Deshapremi speakers scream from tree tops that everyone should sacrifice for the patriotic war.
People are asked to tighten their belts and give every penny to the war. Reformist trade union leaders are frightened into silence. But the southern national bourgeoisie is not making any sacrifices.
On the contrary, they are grabbing every penny from the suffering masses. We are told that increase in food prices means a better life for the farmer, fisher and the peasantry.
But poverty has increased in village society while new palaces grow up in close by cities. Obviously, the middle men are making millions under the cover of the war and the rising oil prices.
This southern national bourgeoisie Mudalali is for the war as it has created for him a background to plunder. Of course, he will give generously to the disabled soldiers’ fund, but his patriotism will stop there; beyond that he has nothing to sacrifice but only to bleed on the suffering masses. He is for Americans, for Indians, and for MNCs, provided they help to continue his patriotic war against LTTE terrorism.
Though there is protest and anger among the poor masses, in cities as well as in villages, the national bourgeoisie Mudalali network acts as a shield for the Government. In turn, this class of people survive with the help of the power of the regime.
Genuine sacrifices
Actually it is the petty bourgeoisie layer that follows the JVP that is making genuine sacrifices for this so-called patriotic war. They hold on to their misery and suffering, for the sake of the war that they believe is conducted against an alien and powerful enemy.
President Mahinda Rajapaksa promised to defeat this alien force and to an extent he is committed to this task-his regime has to be protected. This is what their leaders say, and this is what they really believe in. If the Government turns back in any way, they will do something very serious. Their sacrifice cannot go to waste in vain.
When the JVP leaders say that they will take the war forward, if and when the Mahinda regime retracts its promise, it is the voice of a class of people, made to believe in their destiny that speaks. So, the matter is serious.
In 1971, the JVP did not have a substantial mass base when they first made their attempt for power. They were more organised and powerful in 1989, with a certain following in the armed forces, when they made the second attempt. But today, they are a parliamentary power, have a strong following in the armed forces, and have a strong loyal section in the state bureaucracy that looks upto them.
If there is going to be a third uprising of the JVP in the near future, it is going to be a very important event in the history of the country. Neither the workers movement nor the Left movement is prepared at present, to face such a situation. But there is still time for them, to open their eyes and look at the reality, in order to take up the challenge.
Entry Filed under: transCurrents Commentary
12 Comments Add your own
1. Wsta | January 27th, 2008 at 9:19 pm
There’s no takers to Dr.Wick’s articles about the JVP plan for the 3rd revolution.
Well, if take it with a pinch of salt, you would understand the designs of JVP, keeping the Rajapakshes under control and also keeping the old fire burning within ranks.
Time will tell of the folly of rajapakshe, just like SWRD(sinhala only), Srimavo(1972 republican constituion), JR(indo lanka accord), Premadasa(IPKF fiasco), CBK(War for Peace), Rajapakshe(CFA abrogation+War for Peace II), the lessons are a faculty on its own but none of the races have learnt anything from the past.
Having said this, LTTE intransigence in Peace Talks will also a lesson of its own. The India controlled Co-chairs are also to blame in hijacking the peace process as Ranil fell for it in making Safety Net. LTTE of course wasn’t trusting the CFA as history teaches a lot of lesson about sinhala insincerety and abrogation at a drop of a hat of agreements. Ranil on the otherhand didn’t do anything to allay these fears by being genuine in the peace talks and on the contrary, cemented these fears in ltte of the direction of the CFA-Peace process leaving it to the guidance of India controlled Co-chairs.
THERE WILL BE NO PEACE UNTIL ATLEAST 300000 SINHALESE/TAMILS/MOSLIMS DIE AND MAIM FOR ANOTHER TWO YEARS.
JVP WILL STAGE THE 3RD REVOLUTION THEN.!!!!
2. Subra S.Massey | January 28th, 2008 at 8:17 am
I think there is ceratin amount of reality in what Dr.Karunaratna writes. The fundamental problem is the masses are supporting these party policies and elect them to do wonders. It is only a vibrant economy that can solve these problems. Sri Lankans are neither experienced enough nor educated enough to understand that religion, language and race are just artificial creations by selfish politicians to get elected. As an island we are unable to cross communicate with rest of the world freely and we are kind of isolated and hence lack international exposure. War with theTamils are not the answer to the singhalese problem if fact Tamils are the solution to the current problem. The country badly needs business invetsment to ameliorate the economic condition of the people. When Devanambiyatissa told Dutagemmu not to fight the Tamils he went to war with them and defeated the Tamil. He did not defeat the Tamils he defeated the whole nation. That trauma and scars are still active. Time for cooler minds to take over and bring peace in this holy land of Buddha.
There is no prosperity without peace.
3. Thilee | January 28th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
Wsta,
I just want to add few points to your comments.
Wick got the feeling correct, I feel. I have already wrote here in a comment that a militery rule in SL is not at distance.
A appropriate environment exist right now. JVP want to hold this MR govt untill next election, if things not get worsen. The current General Sarath Fonseka (SF) is the man for the war. JVP has an influence on him (or vice versa). If MR exist from the war or if he opts for a peace talk, or even if Ranil has a chance to come to power, JVP can stup up their agenda with the SF.
Currently they need 2 things. One is the war is alive. The other one is making govt. weaker. They have only one aim, capturing the power, if they can do it by election they will choose that. But it is very distance possibility.
If an emergency rule enforced, the foreign agencies and countries will heads up in SL. May be that is why JVP are already hitting at them regurlarly. JVP will face only foreign resistance but people are used to it. Even many heads from SLFP and UNP can support for fear and power, the culture is there already.
Wsta,
Not only 300000 people, even if almost all people died by the war, Sihnalease will blame LTTE and Tamils will blame govt. No chance to expect sri lankan’s to learn any thing form history or thing forward. But militery rule in SL is NOT at distance JVP can be part of it or fuel it.
4. 2ndClassTamil | January 29th, 2008 at 10:04 am
Wouldn’t that be an ideal excuse for India to militarily intervene (of course with the tacit support of US, to safeguard their regional interests).
5. Naga UK | January 29th, 2008 at 10:23 am
One need not be a genius to predict the paths or possible turns and twists of JVP if one can only understand how JVP thrives. Misery, poverty, turbulence, confusion and pestillence are the breeding ground for them. They did have the wherewithal create some when the need arises and attempt to project an impending doom over which the the youth could be taken for a ride. Unfortunately for them majority of the youths in this country at present are wise and would not trust a word they say. There was indeed the dark era when communication was limited to only a few means and word of mouth, handbills, posters and near yellow rags carrying what used to be powerful messages. After globalization and the advances in IT and mmass communication, it is a far cry from that. Youths of today can read them like the palms of their hands.
If JVP thinks they can attempt it once more that would be the last dream they ever would have. Besides the (mis) leaders of today wont be able to stand a day in the jungle warfare or any such strategy for they have been gluttoning on luxuary and double dealings for such a long time. Besides the party is fragmenting beyond repair leaving only outdated slogans.
No way Sir.
6. Subra S.Massey | January 29th, 2008 at 7:17 pm
Mr.Thilee,
Very well put and said. But What is the mission of JVP?
A socialist state? or Communist State? or a Milittary State?
I remember in 1970 then Srimavo Government with the help of India and US slaughtered enmasse. the JVP.
JVP can only take back the country to stone ages or to the level of somalia. Sri Lankan politics is no more Sri Lankan politics. It is in the international forum. How will India, US, EU will react in case if JVP comes to power There is already considerable pressure being put on the international community to get involved. The Sri Lankans living elsewhere are fast becoming a political force in respective countires. Hence if JVP comes to power that will be the demise of the singhala country. Tamils of course they have South India and other countries to accept them. So my view is the Sri Lanakan people must in their own interest get involved to bring an end to all violence and build a strong vibrant and sustainable economy.
I feel immediately for the Tamils and down the road for Singhalese. I hope the educated singhalese put pressure on US,EU and India to help resolve this mess.
7. Brahmin | January 29th, 2008 at 11:56 pm
Having been burned once, India will never intervene again – not unless ALL of those involved in Indian President Rajiv Gandhi’s assassination are brought to JUSTICE.
8. Naga UK | February 1st, 2008 at 10:22 am
NO ONE CAN BRING ANYBODY TO JUSTICE IN SRI LANKA UNLESS THEY ARE………? LOOK AT THE CASES OF MAHESWARN AND MERVYN, NOT TO MENTION SRIPATHI. IT’S YOUR CALL. THIS IS PEOPLES’ DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF SRI LANKA OR SOMETHING TO THAT EFFECT RIGHT?
9. Villa Anand | February 5th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Mr. Subra
Get your facts right. Devanambiyatissa did not say any thing to Dutugemunu.. Dutugemunu’s father Kavantissa was the one who advised him against fighting Tamils.
Same with your statement that Tamils have South India and other countries to accept them. This is the false pretext the Singhalese were using to marginalize the Tamils. Tamils have other places to go but Singalese have only Sri Lanka. Now you are endorsing it. Politics is not your field Mr.Subra. Be content with your company balance sheets.
10. N2 | February 6th, 2008 at 3:37 am
Dr.Vickramabahu Karunaratne could well be right about warning that there is likely to be a “third uprising of the JVP in the near future”.
But there is also very likely to be the first ‘Islamic’ uprising in the near future too, (and that will be very much more difficult to overcome because of ideology and also outside financing and connections).
11. Subra S.Massey | February 8th, 2008 at 7:36 pm
Villa Anand.
Thank you.
But you can say it in a nicer manner. Now I know the cause of trouble in Sri Lanka. Mr.Viila Ananda, I am so passionate about solving the problem is Sri Lanka, sometimes I get emotional. As long as I don’t hurt any one or kill any one mistakes are okay. Can you please help me by pointing out my mistakes in a civilized manner? See that is how I learned to walk, that is how you learned to walk, making mistakes. I was so dumb at school my teachers told me to just sit in the back bench, but through making mistakes a learned and learned. You know one day the panel of judges for the Canadian Who is Who directory came to see me and wanted to put my name as one of the outstanding Canadians. You should have been one of the judges so that you could have said this guy is so dumb how can you put his name with the others. The judges would have told you Mr.Anand we don’t go by intelligence of the brian but by the greatness of the heart and mind.
Thank you Sir.
Try it some times, start with your family first. My family is one the most peaceful people in the world. I want to show the Sri Lankans the greatness of peace and harmony. I am married 35 years never in my family harsh words were used. I am running a business for 26 years I will give my life for my Associates(employees- called in most companies).
12. villa anand | February 11th, 2008 at 10:10 am
Mr Massy the Messy
Look who is talking about saying this nicer.
See below what you have said to other writers in a different forum.
-What did you eat for your breakfast this morning and who paid for it?.
-I will be at the welfare office or working for bosses like you, who lick our sweat and drink our blood
-get a job and then get a life
You do not write logically. You do not address the issues presented and talk to the point.
I am surprised how you manage your business with so much ignorence. May be that is a bull too.
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