Over-Confident SLA Again Walks Into A Deadly LTTE Trap
April 25th, 2008
by B. Raman
For the second time in less than two years, an over-confident Sri Lankan Army (SLA) has walked into a deadly trap laid by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in the Muhamalai area near Jaffna in the Northern Province of Sri Lanka on April 23 ,2008, and faced a rout. It not only lost over 150 soldiers, who were killed by the LTTE, but also enabled the LTTE to seize a large quantity of arms and ammunition from the battle scene. The LTTE has not had such a bonanza of recovered arms and ammunition since the earlier SLA rout in the same area on October 11,2006. My assessment of the earlier rout may be seen in my article titled A HEAVY PRICE FOR OVER-CONFIDENCE I
After the rout of October 11,2006, the SLA, as is its wont, had played down the fatalities suffered by it and played up the fatalities which it claimed to have inflicted on the LTTE. Only after the LTTE disseminated details of the fatalities inflicted by it on the SLA, did the latter admit that 139 soldiers were killed by the LTTE. A few weeks later, Lt.Gen.Sarath Fonseka, the chief of the SLA, had gone to the US, inter alia, for a medical check-up in connection with the injuries suffered by him in an unsuccessful attempt by the LTTE to kill him through a woman suicide bomber. Reliable sources reported at that time that during his interactions with American military officers in Washington DC he admitted that the SLA had suffered nearly 400 fatalities on October 11, 2006. He allegedly blamed Mr Gothbaya Rajapaksa, the brother of President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who is the Defence Secretary, for hastily pushing the Army into a battle when it was not yet ready–that too in a terrain which the LTTE knew better than the SLA.
After the battle of April 23, 2008, the SLA claimed that it suffered 43 fatalities with 33 more soldiers missing in action, but the correspondent of the CNN TV channel and the Agence France Press (AFP) have reported that the fatalities suffered by the SLA were more than 100. Reliable Sri Lankan Police sources estimate the SLA fatalities at about 150. The SLA has claimed to have killed over 100 LTTE soldiers, but the LTTE has admitted only 16 fatalities. In an analysis of the casualty figures, the AFP has pointed out that in the beginning of this year, the SLA had given the total strength of the LTTE as about 3000, but the total number of fatalities which the SLA has claimed to have inflicted on the LTTE since January 1,2008, is 3105, when one adds up all the figures given in the SLA’s statements.
Since the beginning of this year, the SLA and the Defence Ministry have embarked on a campaign of disinformation regarding the ground situation in the Northern Province. As part of this disinformation campaign, not a day has passed without their reporting some operation or the other resulting in large fatalities inflicted on the LTTE. The purpose of this campaign was to buttress the morale of the soldiers of the SLA and the Sinhalese people, to give themselves in public perception an aura of legendary military prowess and weaken the morale of the LTTE and its Sri Lankan Tamil supporters.
According to some critics of the Government, many of the so-called battles reported as part of this disinformation campaign allegedly existed only in the figment of the SLA’s imagination.
Many tall claims were made as part of this disinformation campaign such as: pin-point intelligence has started flowing from human sources in the Northern Province; many precision air strikes had been made on the LTTE’s political and operational nerve-centres with the help of such pin-point information; the LTTE’s Navy had been practically wiped out; the LTTE’s hold in the North was weakening and the SLA would be able to rout it and re-establish its control over the North before the end of this year.
One of the basic principles of counter-insurgency and counter-terrorism is that you don’t indulge in disinformation in your own territory and directed at your own people. It could prove counter-productive and dangerous by creating a sense of over-confidence in your own troops and people. When the troops realise that they had been sent into battles on the basis of false information and assessments, the credibility of the political and military leadership in the eyes of the people and the soldiers would suffer. The LTTE and its Sri Lankan Tamil supporters know well the ground situation in their territory. They will not be deceived by such a disinformation campaign. It is the Sinhalese public and the soldiers, who will be deceived by it.
This is what happened in October, 2006, and this is what has happened now. The LTTE did on April 23 ,2008, exactly what it did on October 11,2006. After fighting for some time in the face of an SLA offensive, it pretended to withdraw and vacate a small part of the territory under its control. Thinking in their euphoria that they have defeated the LTTE and forced its retreat, the SLA soldiers rushed into the area vacated by the LTTE and found themselves surrounded by it on all sides. It mowed down the soldiers before they could recover from their surprise.
The rout inflicted by the LTTE on the SLA would serve as a morale-booster for its leaders and cadres. It shows that its capability for conventional-style battles is intact and strong in the Northern Province, where the leadership remains united. It had weakened in the Eastern Province following the desertion in March,2004, of Karuna, a capable officer of the LTTE, who looked after its conventional style operations. It was this weakening, which had enabled the SLA to wrest control of the Eastern Province with the help of the Eastern Tamil deserters from the LTTE’s army.
Over-all, despite the success on April 23, 2008, the LTTE’s position is still weak for want of an air cover and due to depletion in its arms and ammunition holdings. The battle of April 23 has replenished its holdings to some extent, but not adequately enough. The dilution of the support and sympathy of the international community has been another handicap. However, the motivation and the determination of its cadres are still strong. Any expectations of an easy walk-over in the North nursed by the SLA are likely to be belied unless its air strikes succeed in eliminating Prabakaran, the leader of the LTTE.
While continuing with their confrontations on the ground, the Sri Lankan Air Force is trying frantically to eliminate Prabakran through an air strike and the LTTE is trying frantically to destroy the SLAF aircraft on the ground. Neither has succeeded so far. Whoever succeeds first is likely to turn the tide of the war in his favour. [saag]
B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai.
Entry Filed under: transCurrents Commentary
21 Comments Add your own
1. True Thamizhan | April 25th, 2008 at 10:22 pm
Hello Raman. Thanks For your article.
I agree with many of your points but i do not agree that Ltte is running out of Amo. I know this becos i have been there and done things. Tiger-SLA artillery dual happen almost everyday in the Muhamali Front. Tigers have plenty of Amo. Don’t ask me how they got it? and don’t be over confident with RAW info too !
and about the killing of prabakaran by SLAF? Sorry cannot be done becos Tigers get inside info even before the pilot knows abt it (Source: Daily mirror)
By the way pls be aware that Global Millitary - Politics is changing. We know which side Lankan Gov is. The axis of evil Iran - Pakistan-china-Sri lanka.
Where India stands in all this? India shud beat the crowd and help the formation of Eelam. If not we have other options ! DO you guys want to see American helping to form Eelam? America sure gain much by creating another Israel in SOuth Asia. Not only America wants to protects its economic interests in south India, it also want to have a millitary advantage. Now that India - American “strategic” relationship seems to be souring(Nuclear deal, Iranina visit etc), AMericans have all the more reasons to intervene in Eelam.
So India have a rare chance to help the Eelam and be a friend with Eelam similar to Bangladesh. If not India will lose big time.
2. Chennai_Analyst | April 25th, 2008 at 11:49 pm
The arrogant SLA Mercenary Divisions, Gemunu, Gajaba, Sinha and Vijayabahu trained and armed by Indian and Pakistani Commando Officers and with all the help and inputs of USA, China, India, Israel and Mercenaries from Eastern Europe, got a Sound Thrashing at the hands of determined, Brave, lungi-clad, bathroom chappalled Tamil youngsters who give their lives in the hope of getting freedom for their people, from the Racist Sinhala regime! And what a thrashing it was. The SLA ran away and there are reports many have simply deserted!
It is so very Sad to see this huge loss of lives on both sides. What a waste of human potential and intellect. The responsibility for all this lies with the Racist Sinhalas who want to ethnically cleanse the island of the Tamils. The Yalpanam Tamils are amongst the most intelligent people in the world next only to the Jews.And what a mighty asset they would have been to Sri Lanka, if only the Sinhalas had assimilated and accomodated them as equal partners just as they have done in Singapore!
While many people point their fingers at the Tigers for the crisis on the island, the main culprits are the Sinhalas for their repeated violence let loose on the Tamils since the days of SWRD Bandaranayake, and which continues to this day. Prabakaran was a creation of this anti-Tamil hate let loose by the Sinhalas. Praba used India to empower the Tamils militarily just as India used the Tamils for their geo-political interests!
The goon Rajapakse regime will drag Sri Lanka to the gutter if it continues on the present course. The Brothers are using the Southern peasants as Cannon-fodder. Neither the Tamils nor the Sinhalas are capable of a total victory.
India has to step in and host peace talks once and for all. India cannot be using Rajiv’s death as an excuse to collectively punish the Tamils. If so, there has to be trials of many of the IPKF who indulged in mass-murder and rape of some 10,000 Tamil civilians. Rajiv was no angel either, as he used the IPKF and even ordered the death of Praba, and luckily the IPKF head didnt take the bait and dis-obeyed him. He has since written about this.
While the politicians of TamilNadu are becoming very restive seeing the bias of India in arming the Sinhalas to wipe out Tamils, many in the Tamil film Industry and intellectuals have started coming out in the open, to criticise India and in some cases supplying money to the Tamil cause. What the hell does Manmohan mean, when he says we are only providing ‘Defensive Weapons” to the Sinhalas?
If India continues on its present track, soon we will see many Tamil youngsters from TN crossing the Palk Straits to take up the cause.Therefore, it will be in India’s own interest to step in and arrange an immediate cease-fire and start peace talks. After all it was India which stoked the flames by training and arming some 42,000 Tamil Militants in 1983 thru 87. India can undo the mess they created. The simmering problem needs to be addressed and solved with some cool level-headed people at the helm! Peace has to return to the island nation. The people have suffered enough!
3. KTR | April 26th, 2008 at 12:49 am
Raman has wishful thinking and his dream which he unable to hide even in this short essay. Grow up.
4. Hanuman | April 26th, 2008 at 1:26 am
I believe I have relatives on both sides and the death toll saddens me. Hope they can start peace talks and come to a definite poitical settlement.
5. Kumar | April 26th, 2008 at 1:36 am
Indian analysts always misunderstand the Eelam Tamil freedom fight. The independent state for Tamils is not created by LTTE, but it was proposed by TULF in 1976 and overwhelmingly endorsed by Eelam Tamil people.
The problem in Sri Lanka is state terrorism. Period.
6. j.muthu | April 26th, 2008 at 3:17 am
My sinhala brothers and sisters, please wake up before too late. You beleive in Mad mhainda one thing you have to learn from above article
The LTTE and its Sri Lankan Tamil supporters know well the ground situation in their territory. They will not be deceived by such a disinformation campaign. It is the Sinhalese public and the soldiers, who will be deceived by it.
7. Crazyoldmansl | April 26th, 2008 at 3:38 am
The Sri Lankan army commander starts off from the position that he has total superiority over the LTTE in terms of men and material. It is just a matter of time before he successfully mows down the rebel forces, murders every single Tamil who resists the diktat of the Sri Lankan establishment, and establishes an unified state. In order to ensure that he is not deprived of access to material in the process of advancing this project, he will align his forces with who ever is willing to keep his forces supplied. The geo strategic situation of the island guarantees that he will never run short of such allies.
The Tamil rebellion is crippled firstly by the Brahmin dominated Indian establishment which is loth to see a consolidation of Black Skinned Tamil political power and the emergence of a Black Skinned Tamil Nation on the global scene right at its southern doorstep, and secondly by the LTTE’s dismal record on human rights that stems from its arrogance and authoritarianism that borders on fascism itself.
A covert alliance between the commander of the Sri Lankan armed forces and the Brahmin dominated Indian establishment is inevitable and the genocide of the Sri Lankan Tamil Community is therefore ensured. It is just a matter of time. Sinhala Buddhist Chauvinist forces are aware of this convergence of interests and are moving their capital across to India. Buddhist ideological interventions in India are being stepped up with the intention of ensuring that the insane brand of Theravada that has captivated the intellect of the island gains dominance over Mahayana tendencies in India and especially in Tamilnadu. The penetration of the Indian polity by the Sri Lankan Buddhist ideology is well under way. The suzereignty established over Sri Lanka and exercised through the establishment of the Buddhist ideology and Pali language is being twisted around, threatening India with the dominance from Sri Lanka of this same Buddhist ideology and the Sinhala Language that has become its vehicle.
8. David Blacker | April 26th, 2008 at 4:27 am
This recent loss by the SLA is mostly a tactical blunder by the Muhamalai front command, rather than a strategic failure on the part of SLA HQ. It was a well-baited trap and the brigadier commanding fell for it. However, it isn’t the failure of an offensive or any such thing as the LTTE and its supporters are making out.
There will be no offensives by the SLA through the Muhamalai-Nagarkovil axis, and there never has been such an intention. The GoSL, MoD, and the Security Forces HQ understand that the centre of focus must be the Vavuniya-Mannar fronts. The Muhamalai-Nagarkovil front is rigid, and the situation a stalemate similar to the Western Front in WW1 — neither side can break the deadlock due to territory and strength. Not without massive casualties. However, SFHQ must keep up the threat level at Muhamalai-Nagarkovil in order to bleed the Vavuniya-Mannar fronts of much needed LTTE troops. Similarly, the LTTE will try to inflict casualties on the peninsula in the hope of enticing the SFHQ to throw its full weight against the Muhamalai-Nagarkovil axis, thereby easing the pressure on the Wanni. It will be a cat-and-mouse game that will continue, with both sides giving Muhamalai-Nagarkovil the impression of false importance. Both sides must sacrifice lives on the peninsula for no real gain in order to save lives and gain ground in the Wanni.
Also, the LTTE will try to inflictcasualties on the peninsula to divert attention from their defeats in Mannar, such as the recent loss of the Madhu Church. As far as the GoSL is concerned, things are going more or less to plan, though it must avoid reactionary operations such as this recent mistake.
9. Murugan | April 26th, 2008 at 5:01 am
The irony is that despite all these external powers giving arms to Sri Lanka, training Sri lankan STF troops, shutting down Tamil Tiger political offices, destroying Tiger Arms shipments, and providing completely one sided support for Colombo, the Sri Lankan Army still managed to lose the last two conventional battles in Jaffna.
(But don’t forget the Tigers also were severely defeated when the Tigers launched a Jaffna offensive in August 2006). I think the Jaffna FDL is a stalemate for the short term.
Anyways, the only ‘victories’ the army has had in the past year have been when the Tigers decided to tactically withdraw. Don’t the people see the Tigers are using the terrain to their advantage? They will let the Sri lankan army spread out and then the Tigers will choose where to deliver concentrated attacks.
Anyways, the recent Jaffna battle says a lot about both the military strength of the Tigers and over-confidence of the Army. But the army’s confidence will vanish after the truth about how many soldiers have died recently leaks out.
Military strength is more than just military assets and manpower.
Tigers have superior bravery, tactics, and ground intelligence. And this recent victory will boost Tiger morale. Furthermore, the Tigers are the world’s best at asymmetric warfare.
Over time, the Tigers have grown into a stronger and more capable military force. From bicycles to airplanes. From losing the first battle for Elephant pass in 1991, to winning the second battle for Elephant pass in 2000. The secular trend shows the gradual improving of the Tigers military capabilities.
Despite the improvements in military equipment that the SL army made during the Ceasefire, I think these high casualties from the Jaffna battle show that the Tigers may still be able to achieve ‘military parity’ with the SL army.
And I think it is fair to say if just one external power decided to switch their support to the Tamil side (especially India) then the Tigers would undoubtedly win.
If the SL Army keeps losing troops at this staggering rate, then the Tigers will demoralize the SL soldiers. The soldiers might realize that Rajapakse uses them as fodder for the political gain of capturing territory.
The army casualties will mount as the offensive continues. The army will lose its motivation to fight.
There is a lack of army progress in the North, a failing economy in the South, a bombing every two weeks in the South, and 25%+ inflation largely caused by the war. This offensive into the Vanni is simply not sustainable.
Rajapaksa will lead the country to self-destruction.
Then again one could argue that a 25 year secessionist campaign has led the Jaffna Tamils to self-destruction.
The future of the island entirely depends on the outcome of the government push to capture the Vanni.
10. Ram the 3nd | April 26th, 2008 at 7:33 am
Your strength is in terror.
Our strength is in numbers.
11. Ram the 3nd | April 26th, 2008 at 8:15 am
Your strength is in terror(SLA/SLAF/SLN).
Our strength is in numbers(LTTE).
1 Tamil fighter=20 Sinhal fighter.
And thank you for the free weapon supply.
12. Jack Ranasinghe | April 26th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Raman is neither perceptive or overly analytical but then again, thats also true of Rajapakse’s constituency. Too often, in Sri Lanka, the obvious needs to be stated.
13. V Siva | April 26th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Sinhalese MUST know Tamils are more intelligent and hard working than them.
The GOSL’s refusal to allow independent media to interview and take photos of forces involved in the fighting shows that GOSL forces were BEATEN very badly.
The WILL of the TAMILS will PREVAIL.
14. paul | April 26th, 2008 at 7:57 pm
important to note that the LTTE will try to get further into the WAR as it is the last chance for peace in SRILANKA
15. Ram the fourth | April 27th, 2008 at 8:55 am
Lets the tigers enjoy the gloating as they reorganize the deck chairs of the titanic, all the same BS false propaanda we saw before Thopigala etc,
One by one the noose tightens, pretty soon we will see the
Scarborough regiment get called in for action.
enjoy it while it lasts…
16. Raj | April 27th, 2008 at 8:58 am
My dear Tamil brother stop suicide bombing civilian buses and your crooked leadership wont get blasted back to the cave ages with the help of the whole world.
Evidently you can only take the donkey to the water, the GOSL or India cant make this donkey drink.
17. Naga UK | April 27th, 2008 at 9:28 am
Info from the funeral parlour indicates that there were four cadavours of chinese nationals. How come?
18. Murugan | April 27th, 2008 at 5:59 pm
Naga UK,
Really? Chinese nationals?
I remember reading sometime ago that China had ‘military advisors’ in Sri Lanka. Similar to how the United States sent green berets to train the Sri Lankan STF during the 90s. I think China did (or still does?) something similar for Sri Lanka but on a lesser scale. This may or may not be related to what you speak of Naga.
19. Jack | April 27th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
B. Raman’s statement, “Over-all, despite the success on April 23, 2008, the LTTE’s position is still weak for want of an air cover …”. At the moment it’s true but I believe it’s just a matter of time before the Tigers re-engineer WWII German V1 cruise missile which uses very simple pulse-jet engine to hit back at SLA.
20. Naga UK | April 28th, 2008 at 9:23 pm
The ethnic war does not seem to have an end in sight. Why? The obvious answer is that the arms-dealers and agencies are very active in Sri Lankan soil. Other countries in the region have been able to get a grip on them. Sri Lanka has become the ideal foil. Reason No.1 is corruption. The most corrupted country at one time – Bangladesh, in the recent past has been able to curb this trend because the military thought enough is enough. Do we have a military with a back-bone in Sri Lanka? One has to concede there might be, given the developments taking place. One hopes it would not come to that.
In my young days I used to read the Hansard - the publication of the parliamentary proceedings to update my knowledge. Today it has become a document that should be kept away from the young reading generation for their own safety! Those days I could remember SJV et al demanding a reasonable recognition of the Tamil language in the administration. The reaction was that from KMB Rajaratna to Syril Mathew asking for the skins of the Tamil leaders. Now they are bellyaching about democratic means!
A large number of Sinhala contributors to this column lament that the Tamils vis-a- vis the LTTE is playing hide and seek and being intransigent. Perhaps they are not aware of the past history of this struggle. When peaceful means were resorted to, they were so arrogant enough to demand that Amirthalingam and the likes be hung in front of the Parliament by his legs and split into two. There is no appreciable change in these attitude- only different phrases! In fact it has hardened to such an extent that Tamils and Tamil from the central administration are being gradually weeded out.
What we fail to realize is that there are forces other than our Tamilism and Sinhala Buddhism operating in this country. The sooner we realize it is better for our country. Otherwise we are doomed. By all standards we should be enjoying the best of everything in the region given the natural resources and location of the land whereas we are in the worst of everything. The reason is corruption from top to bottom and conspiracy of international forces.
The forthcoming PC election is a case in point. This might turn out to be another ticking political bomb and trigger off another version of ethnic conflict between Muslims and Tamils. SLMC leader Mr. Hakeem as far as the eastern province is concerned could provide a good leadership under the circumstances to avert such a situation. I have never met him but I have closely monitored his approach - I take all politicians with a pinch of salt though. He is one man I perceive who could make living easier with complicated (by politicians) Tamil Muslim relationships. I hope the almighty protect him through this arduous task of bringing the communities together.
21. gnanakiddu | April 30th, 2008 at 6:10 am
Hi
It is sad . death of human being is sad.stop talking about victory.talk about how to withdraw SLA from N&E amd How to handover LTTE arms.LTTE is not born nature.it was a creation of Amir ,sangari ,Indiragandi and so many …….. .
when u talking of defeating ………you are going to kill more and more people.stop killing your fellow human.what we need is a peace .a permanent .
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