An analysis of military operations
May 29th, 2008
by Col R Hariharan (retd.)
There should be no illusion that despite the flare of success in repelling a division strong security forces offensive at Muhamalai in April 2008, the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) is fighting a war of survival. The continuing ground and air operations of the security forces after Muhamalai debacle, and the progress they have made during this month in Mannar sector capturing Adampan and other outlying LTTE defences have further constricted the territory under active LTTE control in the Northern Province.
The fall of key LTTE defences in Mannar sector indicate that the LTTE probably pulled out some of its forces earlier to reinforce Muhamalai-Kilinochchi. This would enable the LTTE to repel future forays of security forces into the vital heartland of the LTTE from the north.
As the troops advance further in Mannar and Vavuniya sectors, and as pressure builds up in Welioya, even without a major offensive along Muhamalai, the LTTE’s options would be reduced further. As the war prolongs further, the constraints of conventional warfare dictate that the LTTE has to progressively pull back its defences, and reduce its frontage to conserve its strength to offer better resistance. This would be the long term picture even if the security forces have a few debacles along one or more fronts in their offensive, as long as they do not give up half way.
There had been few pro-active LTTE operations after Muhamalai. These were limited to dropping of three bombs on the security forces in Welioya front by two Air Tiger aircraft, and sinking of A 520 (MV Invincible), a naval logistics vessel in a clever underwater suicide operation by the Sea Tigers in Trincomalee harbour during mid May. This would show the LTTE has severe limitations in its conventional operational capability.
The security forces have carried out relentless bombing of suspected LTTE assets. The LTTE has accused the security forces’ deep penetration unit of killing 17 people including women and children in a claymore blast well inside the LTTE territory in Vanni. This is the third time the LTTE has accused the security forces of carrying out such clandestine attacks deep inside its territory. The security forces have routinely denied these allegations. These killings targeting civilians are probably retaliatory in nature for settling scores for the LTTE’s killings of civilians elsewhere.
While they do not directly impact the current operational situation, they impose caution on movement of cadres and spread insecurity and panic among the population. These could get worse as the war makes further inroads. If the LTTE accusations are true, they show the weakening ability of the LTTE to dominate areas under its control. If it is not the security forces, who are behind these deep penetration operations in depth? Are they the handy work of one of the shadowy “para military” outfits that the LTTE accuses of colluding with the security forces? These questions are probably being debated within the LTTE and some of its attention would be diverted to prevent such attacks as the war progresses.
Recourse to unconventional war
LTTE’s strong suite had always been its guerrilla capability in areas outside its direct control. Under present circumstances, to compensate its limitations in conventional operations, the LTTE appears to have stepped up its unconventional actions with a series of bomb blasts in areas outside the battle zones.
The LTTE attacks outside the theatre of operations started the day after Muhamalai attack, with the killing of 26 civilians in a bus bomb blast at Piliyandala on April 28, 2008. This was followed by the Amparai café °arcel bomb blast on the eve of the eastern provincial council elections in which 11 people were killed and 29 others wounded. There was a motor cycle-borne suicide attack on a police van in Colombo on May 16, 2008 killing 10 persons including seven policemen. The latest in the series was the bomb blast carried out in a train at Dehiwela near Colombo on May 26, 2008 in which nine people were killed and 73 others were injured. Only two days before the train bombing, three time bombs were defused before they exploded – two on passenger buses near Colombo and one in the Kandy area.
Of course, there was the tragic, gangster style LTTE killing of Ms Maheswary Velayutham, while visiting her ailing mother in her Jaffna home. She was better known for years of yeoman service in the cause of human rights and Tamil refugees than for her later day role as advisor to the Eelam Peoples Democratic Party (EPDP). And how her killing makes it easier to gain Tamil Eelam is a question only the LTTE’s warped logic can answer.
Essentially an insurgent force, the LTTE probably feels more comfortable in carrying out bomb blasts, suicide killings, and other such attacks targeting civilians. Such acts by themselves do not win wars. But they tend to create panic among the population and psychologically pressurise the government to ease military operations if the social and political environments encourage such developments. Whether these happen or not in the current situation in the country, the feeling of insecurity among Tamils living in Sri Lanka will be increased every time the LTTE carries out such strikes due to inherent ethnic overtones of such acts. In any case President Rajapaksa appears to be undeterred in his intention to crush the LTTE after each bomb blast. In fact, he has reiterated the same sentiment after the May 26 train blast. And after his successful election foray in the east he would have no hesitation to enlarge its scope further.
Human rights issue
The failure of Sri Lanka’s bid for getting elected to the membership of the UN Human Rights Council for a second term was not unexpected. On this count the President had probably underestimated the increasing importance attached to human rights questions in many democracies regardless of their own human rights record. At present no counter insurgency operation can be carried out with utter disregard to human rights issues. And Sri Lanka had continued its war with total indifference to human rights. Moreover, it has not covered itself with glory on this count even on the eve of the UN HRC elections. The international group of eminent persons called upon to advise the commission of inquiry into killings quit in disgust after a long tussle with the bureaucracy. Strong arm tactics have continued to suppress dissonant voices of the media. Reputed international NGOs have been castigated and prevented from entering or working freely in Sri Lanka. And Sri Lanka has persisted in refusing to allow a representative of the UN HRC to be positioned to monitor its human rights performance.
Notwithstanding the rhetoric of Bruce Fein and the detailed reports of Human Rights Watch, even nations which voted against Sri Lanka are unlikely to pressurise Sri Lanka to curb the President’s pursuit of war effort immediately. Such pressure is applied in small doses and often gets diffused due to diplomatic and political compulsions of different nations. Moreover, globally counter terrorism and human rights aberrations are far from being equated as a zero sum game. Perhaps, the flow of foreign aid and the vigour of foreign trade would be affected if Sri Lanka persists in errant ways on human rights. But the President retains the option of visibly improving his human rights record, and carry on with the military operations when the chips are down.
Though the LTTE propaganda machinery had been harping upon the human rights issue, its own hands are tainted with too many human rights violations to point a finger at others. In fact, its dismal human rights record has been used by Sri Lanka to ward off the flack in international forums on this count.
Sri Lanka security forces
Muhamalai was undoubtedly a debacle for the security forces in that they suffered probably double the number of casualties suffered by the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam. And in the operations probably 300 fighters from both the security forces and the LTTE lost their lives. Offensive troops always suffer more casualties in operations. However, the operation should be put in perspective while assessing the future capability of the security forces. The security forces had shown three weaknesses in this operation.
The first was not coordinating the Muhamalai offensive with other simulated or actual operations on other fronts. That would have prevented the LTTE from beefing up its Muhamalai defences by milking forces from other sectors on the eve of operations. Though operations have been launched in multiple fronts for some time, the security forces appear to have failed to take advantage of creating confusion in the minds of opposition by coordinating them and fine tuning them to derive maximum advantage. Despite expanding the army, this weakness to coordinate formation level operations on multiple fronts exhibited in earlier Eelam wars has persisted in the higher direction of war.
The second relates to tactical intelligence. The security forces probably went in for a silent attack, a very sound proposition if the surprise element was there. But there were enough battle indications in Jaffna peninsula for at least ten days in advance about the impending operation in this front. When surprise was neutralised the silent attack becomes a futile effort. The LTTE is a past master in deception and the offensive troops appear to have been taken by surprise when they ran into unexpected resistance from defences. This would show battlefield intelligence acquisition was not real time. Moreover, silent attack requires accurate real time tactical intelligence and probably this was lacking despite the modern battlefield surveillance equipment available to the security forces.
The third major weakness is strategic. Sri Lankan operations are slow and plodding which fails to take advantage of tactical success in conventional operations. It also gives sufficient time for the opposition to readjust, reinforce or pull out from defences. There could be non military reasons for not pushing through with the offensive for fear of suffering more casualties. According to the figures of the government, since January 3,873 LTTE cadres have been killed as against the loss of 298 soldiers in operations. While these figures might be disputed, there is no doubt the LTTE losses had been heavier. But the operation has gone into the third year, and the indications are that it would be a long haul if present strategies are continued.
While tactical weaknesses can be set right, the strategic weakness might continue to dog the Sri Lankan operations. And that could prolong the war and increase its human and material cost to the nation.
Future course
Overall, LTTE actions outside the operational zone are unlikely to discourage President Rajapaksa from his pursuit of military option. And if he stays determined and the security forces do not blink as they did in their infamous Elephant Pass disaster in 2000, the military operations are likely to gobble up further territory in Mannar sector in the coming months. The LTTE attacks on civilians are not going to put a stop to the military operations. They only show that the LTTE for all its pretensions of de facto governance has not changed its Tiger stripes. As the LTTE has little choice, one can expect more LTTE attempts at creating mayhem, chaos and killings as the war intensifies in the coming months.
The strong defences of LTTE in Muhamalai axis to Kilinochchi show that it is not going to allow easy passage through. Strategically, the security forces will have to probably consider coordinating the Jaffna offensive along A9 with offensive along A32-Pooneryn to enhance the threat to Kilinochichi and weaken the LTTE defences. Whether the security forces have the wherewithal to carry out such a complex operation is the question only the Army commander can answer best. [saag]
(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90.He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail: colhari@yahoo.com)
Entry Filed under: transCurrents
31 Comments Add your own
1. Lankan | May 29th, 2008 at 11:29 am
No wonder IPKF suffered immensely under your command colonel, you still haven’t got a clue about the strength of LTTE and Prabaharan. With 150000 troops India the super power couldn’t eradicate some 1500 boys with bathroom slippers, how do you expect us to beat them now, they have about a million people outside SriLanka supporting them financially and have grown to have a navel wing and an air wing, and to top it all about 50000 trained persons, including the people, to defend Wanni? Underestimating the tigers have always been our drawback, I think it’s time for us to accept the real strength of our opponent and should prepare to face them accordingly. We could fool the public but every person in security force should know exactly what we are up against. This is the only way we can avoid further surprises from Prabakaran.
Colonel is a wounded retried soldier, his grudge with the tigers is apparent in his articles and we should never buy into it. No hard feelings Colonel
2. chumma | May 29th, 2008 at 12:37 pm
Now I know why the IPKF was beaten badly in SL.
With this kind of “analysis”, forget the LTTE,you cant even beat a village cricket team.
the tigers are an unkwon variety. from day one to today they were fighting for survival. the whole history of the LTTE is a fight for survival.
if they could be easily understood and desected like this, they would have been finished a long time ago.
what is going on in wanni is a stalemate. LTTE after getting out of the east with almost all their men and material intact, are digging in.
to get to adampan it took 18months for the SLA. by this account it will be 2015 before they get to mullaitivu!
what is the gurantee that the ltte wont let the SLA in and attack them?
remember how they in 6 days took back all the land the SLA captured after nearly 2 years of opeation “jeyasikuru”?
the biggest mistake the enemies of the LTTE always do is to underestimate the tigers. the tigers thrive on this.
3. col? | May 29th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
I agree with chumma
Harriharan is one of the sterotype I/A ,Raw analyst, thinks that they know all about Ltte and tamils but all they do is enjoy “Shinhal hospitality” and write some imaginative analysis. These people only good to write tamil movie scripts.
4. sharma | May 29th, 2008 at 4:47 pm
Dear Harikaran!
You are thinking alway posive about you and your country and negative about your enemies. I understand that you will never write about true situation in Sri Lanka because you are supporting the Mahinda Rajapakse. In other words you are fooling your self and great country india. You don’t want to realise the real situation that is the my point. It show you have limited knowledge.
5. Shawn Harysuthan | May 29th, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Col Hariharan, I have only one question for you,
Why couldn’t you and your government destroy LTTE in 1987? How dare you to write about Tamil people/freedom struggle and the freedom fighters (or on your words terrorists)
6. sash | May 29th, 2008 at 6:19 pm
india always second place to sri lankan intelligence. sri lanka always put india in a bad position when they come to tamil rights. india getting battered by sri lanka always in this matter. sad …..sad , i jest wondr when india will learn this.
7. Wyoming | May 29th, 2008 at 7:31 pm
The Singala Army will be defeated just like the Indians were in 1990s.
8. Raj | May 29th, 2008 at 7:34 pm
Colonel, what wars did you and Raman fight in? I enjoy reading your analysis.
9. Raj | May 29th, 2008 at 8:15 pm
Hello tamil week
I think tamil week (with the name of Tamil)
should not allow this kind of anti tamil people to publish their articles.If they want there are plenty of sinhella sites for anti tamil propoganda
please dont demoralise tamils
10. NMR | May 29th, 2008 at 11:00 pm
Good analysis
Sri lanka forever
11. Vannian | May 30th, 2008 at 12:44 am
hello Raj, don’t think this type of articles will demoralize Tamils. Most Tamils know exactly whats happening in our homeland becos we all have first hand experience. Outsiders who write articles based on other articles not going to demoralise any Tamil. But its good for the singala racists to buy the stories and fall into a false sense of security. Tigers are almost finished and last breadth? mmm….very good for singala masses.
IPKF folks once destroyed the kokuvil hindu college school jaffna with thousands of refugees and announced to the world via ‘all india radio’ that a Tiger rebel base is destroyed !
12. Seyon | May 30th, 2008 at 4:23 am
If the India have these officers to advice India, India will never be a regional power let alone a super power.
Tamil diaspora must file cases against these alleged IPKF WAR CRIMINALS.
13. R.G | May 30th, 2008 at 4:55 am
The ground reality is not that all rosy for SL Forces. The NAVAL Commandos of LTTE walked in , took control and emptied a SL Navy outpost within hours.
The reality is that LTTE is slowly but surely working towards the capture of Jaffna peninsula. The shift from wanni to Jaffna could be to its advantage as SL forces have to use Navy to re capture Jaffna if it falls into LTTE hands. The Land area that can be used for SL Forces is the the Elephant Pass isthmus. That’s narrow and LTTE can protect it easily better than the wide Wanni Landscape.
Why NOT take the stance that WAR is not the answer to Sri Lanka’s problems. If Nepal can let maoists rule and India got its foot in its mouth as China has a direct link to Nepal via maoists.
Col.Hari should write advisory notes to his own Indian Wallas about the chinese expansion into its neighbours.
softy softy Indians have no backbone to put the foot down and solve the Sri Lankan ethnic problem. They just want SL go down the gurgler and them become the so called ‘ Super Power’ of Asia. china is THE super power of asia. Get over it.
Pakistan fighter planes were re-fueled in colombo during Bangladesh war. Why India do not show the SL Govt their true anger towards this. Iran, china, Japan have more clout in SL than India. Why?
India can stop this war and terror with one stroke of movement in the mediating peace between warring parties. If India cares about the lives of both Sinhalese and Tamils, then, they can stop it right away.
But, India gives Radars, soft loans to the tune of 100 million every year and train SL Army personnel and prolong the agony and mayhem that is not necessary.
Simple! Stop funding the SL govt or LTTE. The war will STOP. Sri Lanka is begging on the international streets to retain GSP+, aid donations, etc,etc. This is the result of sinhala rule of Sri Lanka for the past 60 years.
GL Peiris being so educated and knowledgeable, goes around the world BEGGING. But India, during Tsunami, avoided foreign help and directed them to poor nations like SL. Indian are no more beggars in the international arena.
14. Kumarappa | May 30th, 2008 at 5:23 am
Well these gentlemens had studied in and aroound those mission schools and convents, hence they know little bit of english. So. they got high posts in the Indian Armed forces. .
15. Arumugam | May 30th, 2008 at 6:53 am
Mr. Hariharan, Don’t worry about these posted comments. These people are not living in Sri Lanka. They are living in Europe in the name of refugees and enjoy all the facilities. They want the war to continue so that they can stay in western countries.
These people are the main reason for the suffering of innocent tamils actually living in the war zones.
16. Raj | May 30th, 2008 at 8:52 am
Hey dear Arumugan,
If we don’t voice our concern as diaspora, then your government will masacre all our people back home and plant Boo trees all over our homeland. It’s the opposite, your war mongering leaders needs to have the war alive in order for them to stay in power and steel your own citizens money. Your own president put a chunk of tsnumi relief fund in his relatives bank account…what do you call that???? Low lifes???
17. T.Varangan | May 30th, 2008 at 10:05 am
First operation liberation, then sath jaya, jaya sikirui, agni kheela, and so on.
When are you people going to realise that you cannot defeat the LTTE militarily.
We will soon free the soil of Jaffna and then see how the Sinhala South reacts. It will be a good contrast to when they were celebrating the capture of the east while our people were forced into refugee camps like stray dogs.
How can we be refugee’s in our OWN land, the land we were born and grew up in……such things are only possible in this Sinhala country.
18. Tamil Nationalism | May 30th, 2008 at 3:49 pm
It is deliberatly slanted to favour GOSL.All the articles of this writer never mentions the terrorism activity of the state of GoSL.
19. Rama | May 30th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
I could write better than these guys.
20. Indian Tamil | May 30th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
India must help SL in whatever way to eject ltte .request not to write anymore .you dont deserve such belittling /disparaging remark written by SL tamils.Just disengage and help SL to defeat LTTE.
21. Thamil | May 30th, 2008 at 4:56 pm
Tamil don’t need to bother too much about these so-called analysts: they just reprint the press releases by the srilankan government, word of mouth and rumours.
One day,Tamils would live peacefully in their traditional homeland even they would be able to help the poverty striken Indians with food aids and assistance for their developments.
22. Palaniyandi | May 30th, 2008 at 5:07 pm
Hari jee, Many military men in their retired life advocate peace.
23. Priyadharshini | May 30th, 2008 at 6:33 pm
Dear Col,
You have written absolutely correct. The LTTE has never won any battle with India but resort to cowardly acts of terrorism. As one former visitor wrote sometime back, one should not forget that the IPKF was only a Peace Keeping Force and not a fighting Force. The LTTE and their cohorts are only distorting facts.
24. Gini Appu | May 30th, 2008 at 9:35 pm
How is it that a rag tag band of wannabe soldiers like the LTTE, can roll into heavily fortified military installations like Killinochchi, Mullaitheevu, Pooneryn and Elephant Pass and yet the Sri Lankan armed forces with their obvious superior advantage (funding, resources, troop strength, etc) have not been able to recapture lost territory?
We can no longer blame the politicians for meddling as the Rajapakses have given Fonseka the freedom to do his will. Even by Defence Ministry accounts, troops seem to recapture territory a few hundred square meters at a time. And yet the cheering squads cheer. Nobody asks why this is all taking so long? Perhaps if we did, we wouldn’t ask for more….
http://parippuplease.blogspot.com/
25. Thangesh | May 31st, 2008 at 8:37 am
Mr . hariharan
I am sorry to see that you never propose any peace settlement for Tamils political aspiration.
26. Larasbat | May 31st, 2008 at 11:23 am
Brilliant article – it should be filed under the fiction/fantasy section in the local libraries.
I have asked before, why is it that whenever the LTTE score a big military win, a bomb goes off in the South killing civilians within 48 hrs??? When LTTE do something – they do it in grand scale – i.e Bank of Ceylon, World Trade Center, Katunayake Airport etc – not these small scale parcel bombs.
As for Arumugam/Arumuganayake or whatever the real Sinhalese name of that person – your pathetic attempt to pass off as a Tamil is laughable.
27. JeyP | May 31st, 2008 at 2:46 pm
#23
Dont asume that IPKF was only an occupational force. When the war first broke out the Indians sent in commando units to capture Jaffna. They always had components of them around. Still they didnt win. Whether that was due to their inability or unwillingness to defeat the Tigers is another question
28. eesan | May 31st, 2008 at 8:19 pm
overall, a good piece of analysis, but how much of it is wishful thinking?
Colonel, why the pro-gosl stance?
I m not saying you should be pro tamil, but at-least stay neutral.
29. Indian Tamil | May 31st, 2008 at 11:06 pm
Does he know what kind od of complex political forces act in the south? Only God knows who throws a bomb and where they throw it. He simply beleives the government interpretation. In any war waged against the people(in this case Tamils) history never favors the occupying force.
30. Indian Tamil | June 1st, 2008 at 9:42 am
#27 “Still they didn’t win”
We thought IPKF drove LTTE out of Jaffna into the jungles.Infact no territory was held by the LTTE during IPKF,unlike the present situation.
31. R.G | June 1st, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Col.Hari !
You quietly forget, without India nurturing LTTE at birth, we wouldn’t be in this predicament.
Just because Indians switch allegence due to LTTE teaching a lesson, what guarantee is there that one day india wouldn’t side with tamils. If Janatha Party comes to power next , what is the policy change towards Sri Lanka?
Ministers like fernandez were actively supporting LTTE a few years back.
India can clean up its mess by forcing a political solution.
Why didn’t ndia object to non implementation of the 1987 indo lanka accord? Convenience I suppose!
Geo-Political convenience doesn’t cut in in SL ethnic problem.
Innocent Sinhala youth from villages are dying at the war front and innocent civilians are dying in the cities.
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