By D.B.S. Jeyaraj
There is a saying in Tamil that the tiger crouches to pounce (Puli pathunguvathu paaivathatku).This is in reference to the four – legged feline of the wilds. This saying however proved appropriate last week in the case of the two – legged tigers of Sri Lanka too.
When the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) seemed to experience military reversals in places like Maavilaaru, Muthur, Sampoor, Mandaitheevu and Muhamaalai many people in Sri Lanka and abroad began to write off the tigers as “finished”. The LTTE added to this impression by not using the large arsenal believed to be in their possession in the various military skirmishes.
With the Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL)of Mahinda Rajapakse adopting a hawkish policy towards the LTTE , war fever began gripping the South. The national socialists of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and ethno – fascists of the Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) whipping up the frenzy many wanted the armed forces to go in and finish off the tigers/tamils. It was felt that the LTTE was weak and now a spent force.
This hard – line attitude was pithily expressed by the chief incumbent of the Magul Maha vihara, Ven. Kataragama Sirirathina Thero . “Koti nemei Poos petiyek” (not a tiger but a kitten) he said. This _expression caught on and soon reputed commentators were quoting it with unconcealed glee.A case was made out against negotiations or recognizing the inherent rights of the Tamils because the LTTE was now weak.
Unfortunately for those Sinhala supremacists who want this Island to be for one entity alone the LTTE had not turned pussy cat. It was still the tiger and in the words of Blake “Burning bright”. Contrary to extremist expectations the LTTE was not a spent force. It was alive and kicking. The “puli” had crouched not due to weakness but to pounce on its prey.
When it became apparent that the GOSL was scheming to take Elephant pass before talking in Geneva this column warned that things may not go the way Colombo wished. ” Whatever the crowing in Colombo the tigers are still not a spent force. They have “lost” battles but not the war. It is also a moot point as to whether Velupillai Pirapakaran would continue to let the Rajapakses and Sarath Fonseka define the venue and terms of conflict. There may be unexpected twists and turns on the road to Elephant pass” was what I wrote then.
Recent events have shown that the LTTE is capable of not only defeating the GOSL in strategic defensive battles but is also prepared to expand the war theatre into areas outside the North – East. The LTTE leader was choosing the time and place of attack.
Signs of the renewed LTTE were visible first in the Vaaharai region of Koralaipattru North in Batticaloa district. More than 400 Soldiers and 80 members of the Karuna faction marched out from Mankerni to Vaaharai through Panichankerni. The LTTE allowed the soldiers and their running dogs to advance nearly five to six km before attacking.
In an operation personally supervised by Trincomalee LTTE commander “Col” Sornam the advancing enemy was surrounded and attacked. The commanding officer too was killed. The GOSL military and para – military retreated . The army lost 12 men and Karuna faction 15 cadres At least 61 from both groups were injured.
The next opportunity for the tiger to demonstrate it was not a “poonaikutti” (kitten) came when the GOSL launched a massive operation to retake Elephant Pass. The main thrust was from the Kilaly and Eluthumadduvaal bases. The LTTE allowed the troops to march forward with minimal resistance. In fact the first and second lines of LTTE defence withdrew.
The LTTE commenced its counter – attack in the Pallai – Puloppalai area. After about six hours of intensive fighting the soldiers retreated. The Army lost at least 136 men and sustained 519 injuries. Six Armoured fighting vehicles and six Armoured Personnel carriers were lost. One battalion was virtually decimated.12 officers lost their lives.The LTTE returned 78 bodies of soldiers to the army through the Red Cross
Both these battles saw the LTTE resisting two military advances. The GOSL troops had “invaded” tiger territory. The tigers were well within their rights to defend themselves. The soldiers were legitimate targets. The LTTE had fought two pitched battles of the conventional warfare variety and emerged victors. The tiger had proved that it had not transformed into a cat.
Having fought what were essentially defensive battles the LTTE now went on the offensive. The tiger was now predator. It went in search of prey outside its “historical habitat”. The nature of the operations too was no longer strategic defensive as in earlier instances.
Naval personnel in Habarana and the Naval base in Galle were targetted. The targets were legitimate military targets but the methods adopted were controversial. In both cases the Sri Lanka Navy were the main victims.
By launching attacks on the navy at Habarana and Galle the LTTE had demonstrated that it could reach even outside the North – East even up to the Southern coast. In recent times the navy had been making many claims about destroying LTTE ships and boats. In that sense the tiger attacks apart from their lethal damage were also symbolic. Tourism in Galle and Habarana could be affected in the long term.Also the LTTE has issued an implicit warning that if the GOSL kept on targetting Tamil cvivilians Colombo could expect more operations of this type.
More importantly the LTTE has disproved Southern propaganda that the tiger had become a pussycat. By these attacks the LTTE had proved its point. The military operations undertaken by the LTTE in Vaaharai – Panichankerny and Pallai – Puloppalai were fundamentally militaristic and defensive in nature. Notwithstanding denials it was apparent that the GOSL armed forces were the aggressors in those battles.
The picture however is murky when it comes to Habarana and Galle. It is debatable as to whether the unarmed navy personnel in Habarana or the harbour workers in Galle were military targets. Arguments can be adduced in favour of both positions.
Moreover the use of suicide bombers evokes much condemnation in the West in a post September 11th 2001 scenario. The LTTE of course has not commented much on the Galle and Habarana attacks but its military spokesman Ilanthiraiyan has said that in a situation where the GOSL is attacking Tamil civilian areas indiscriminately these types of counter – attacks could be inevitable.
Whatever the merits or otherwise in the LTTE military action in Galle and Habarana it is clear that the GOSL has no moral right to condemn the tigers. The Rajapakse regime has been notorious for its deliberate attacks on Tamil civilians. The GOSL which butchered unarmed schoolgirls through aerial terror in Vallipunam and shamefully justified it is now wailing about the killing of “unarmed sailors” in Habarana.
The GOSL escalated violence in recent times under the belief that the tiger was now a cat.The “Puli” however is not a “Poonai”.This is the message of Vaaharai – Panichankerni, Pallai – Puloppalai, Habarana and Galle.
LTTE supporters are deleriously happy. Their mindset evokes memories of an old TM Soundrarajan song by Poet Vaali from the MGR movie “Rickshawkaran”. MG Ramachandran sings thus [click for song on MIOL]
“Naan oru kai paarkiren.
Neram varum Ketkiren
Poonai Alla Puli Thaan Endru
Poha Pohak Kaattugiren”
(I will show my hand; when the time comes I will ask; As time goes by and by I will prove that I am a not a cat but a tiger)
But where does all these leave the affected Tamil civilian in the North – East and elsewhere in Sri Lanka ? How do these military victories of the LTTE help the ordinary Tamil?
Military victories alone will not help the Tamils achieve their lost rights. Military victories alone will not help resolve the Tamil National question.
Contrary to what Bismarck said the problem can ultimately be resolved only through “dialogue and discussion” and not by “blood and iron”.
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October 21st, 2006
By D.B.S. Jeyaraj
In a surprising morning attack the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) launched an amphibaean assault on the Sri Lanka Naval base “Dhakshina” in the Southern province of Sri Lanka.
The Black sea tiger (kadat karumpuli) attack came on Wednesday Oct 18th in Galle the historic City in the Southern Province. Galle too has become the hub of Southern province tourism and is often compared to the resorts along the French Riviera. In recent times a large number of foreigners have bought residential property in Galle mainly along the sea. Galle known as “Khalee” in Tamil is about 113 km to the South of Colombo.
Apparently the Government had received an intelligence report that Galle was to be attacked by the LTTE. President Mahinda Rajapakse reportedly told members of the cabinet at the weekly meeting that his brother and defence secretary Gotabhaya Rajapakse had obtained this info two days ago. Security had been intensified from Pottuvil to Galle. The intelligence report however said the tiger attack would be in the night so security had been relaxed after 6 00 am
The tigers however struck very much after dawn . Hundreds of fishing craft were returning ashore to the Galle fisheries harbour after night fishing. All boats had licenses and permits that were checked at the marine entry point to the harbour. A flotilla of seven tiger boats masquerading as fishing boats were also moving towards the harbour.15 – 20 LTTE cadres aboard were disguised as fishermen.
[Sea Tigers, Nov 2005]
It was around 7.45 am when one black sea tiger boat drew up fast near the harbour entry point and blew itself up. Four other tiger boats streamed into the harbour premises. Their objective was the Naval base “Dhakshina” adjoined the fisheries harbour premises. LTTE cadres began firing from the boats. Some used RPG’s.
One of the tiger boats went and rammed itself against the old navy vessel “Parakrama Bahu”. The ship was damaged and also caught fire. Two other boats rammed themselves against two waterjets and exploded. Soon the sailors within “Dhakshina” rallied and began fighting back. Some were reportedly half – dressed as they hastily fought back. With four tiger boats blowing themselves up the fifth was destroyed by the navy in a 50 minute firefight.
Tigers from the other two boats also clambered ashore and reportedly fired from the jetty. Their target seemed to be the major armoury housed within “Dhakshina” premises. This armoury was the main storehouse for naval arsenal and ammunition. More importantly war materials supplied by Pakistan were brought directly to Galle by ship and unloaded. An unconfirmed report states that some Pakistani war materials were being unloaded at Galle at the time of attack.
Residents of Galle heard a series of explosions. One explosion seemed to be a powerful one. With the navy destroying the two other boats from which LTTE cadres landed the remaining tigers had after a while run away from the area into the town after discarding weapons an unconfirmed report stated.
According to official reports One naval sailor was killed and 14 injured. One civilian worker died and 12 other civilians were injured. The dead man had died due to shock. Two Inshore patrol craft and one coastal patrol craft were damaged. An old ship was burnt. Officially it was denied that the armoury was damaged in any way though clouds of smoke were going up long after the big explosion and other smaller ones.
Even as Galle residents were in a state of panic a group of looters assembled into a mob and began targeting Tamil businesses and homes. The mob reportedly backed by local members of two racist organizations went first to the pre- dominantly Tamil “Kittangi” area which has many Tamil shops. “Kittangi” or warehouse was built by an Indian Chettiyar during British rule. Most shops here are owned by Tamils of Indian descent.
The mobs also targetted Tamil businesses and homes in Olcott Mawatte and Kaluwella. The mob numbering more than 200 consisted of small groups. The rampage began at about 8. 30 am itself. The mob broke into houses and shops and began looting stuff. They also destroyed goods. The patriotic rabble specifically focused on jewellery shops and stores dealing with electronic goods. Twenty – eight shops and homes were looted while about ten were set ablaze.But the fires caused minimal damage as they were quickly doused.
[Tamil men stand with their children in the largest Hindu temple in Galle, Pic Courtesy of AFP/Lakruwan Wanniarachchi]
Most Tamils were panic stricken and took refuge in the Galle Sivan and Sri Kathiresan temples. Policemen directed by Galle OIC Keerthi Silva however came to the scene quickly and chased away the mobs.Police opened fire on the mobs and injured three. Others fled. If not for prompt Police action there may have been much more looting, arsondestruction and also possible loss of life and limb.
According to some Galle Tamil residents Government minister Piyasena Gamage and opposition MP from the UNP Lionel Premasiri had played a big role in pressing for Police action in dispersing the crowd and protecting Tamil civilian lives and property. Both political leaders had also visited the scenes of violence, consoled Tamil victims and ensured their safety and security.
Officials also announced publicly that people living near the harbour should vacate their homes because of a danger of explosions and possible spread of fire. An unofficial curfew was imposed and people in the town area were asked to remain indoors. Transport along the Galle road was also curtailed for a while.
Soon three sets of rumours began circulating like wildfire. One was that some escaped tigers were in the town. The other was that some LTTE cadres were on Rumassala hill in Galle firing away at the harbour. The third was that a big LTTE ship outside the harbour had got away safely.
The authorities however denied all three “rumours” and claimed that only five tiger boats were involved in the attack and that all of them were destroyed by the navy. It was also denied that LTTE Black tiger suicide squad members had blown themselves or any of the boats were rammed into vessels. The “Official” story was that all LTTE boats were destroyed by the navy alone.
In spite of the denial that no tigers were at Rumassala hill a large number of security personnel were busy combing the area for tigers. Likewise a massive search operation was also conducted in Galle for lurking tigers.
Despite denying that any tigers had escaped into the town at least sixteen Tamils were arrested on suspicion in Galle. Eleven are being quizzed now. The other five were released.
Apart from Tamils a few Muslims and even Sinhalese businesses were attacked by the “patriotic” mob. When Defence Affairs spokesperson Keheliya Rambukwell was asked by the BBC Tamil service about mobs attacking Tamils the cabinet minister denied it at first. When the BBC said that they had direct feedback from the affected victims Rambukwella brushed it aside lightly saying it was only the work of some “mischief – makers”.
Three contingents of Special Task Force personnel from Colombo were rushed to Galle to help establish law and order and also combat tigers. The harbour premises were not open to the public at the time of writing this article and no media persons were able to see for themselves the actual damage caused.
Meanwhile LTTE media outlets were the first to come out with details of the attack and also publish pictures of Galle harbour. This strengthened the belief that some tigers had actually got away alive and also that another LTTE vessel may have left the area after thye operation. It is not known as to how many tigers actually died in the fighting though seven unidentified bodies washed ashore are presumed to be those of the LTTE.Some LTTE bodies are said to be mangled into shreds in the explosions.
By launching attacks on the navy at Habarana and Galle the LTTE had demonstrated that it could reach even outside the North – East even up to the Southern coast. In recent times the navy had been making many claims about destroying LTTE ships and boats. In that sense the tiger attacks apart from their lethal damage were also symbolic. Also tourism in Galle and Habarana could be affected in the long term. Also the LTTE has issued an implicit warning that if the GOSL kept on targeting Tamil civilians Colombo could expect more operations of this type.
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October 21st, 2006
By D.B.S. Jeyaraj
The Government of Sri Lanka (GOSL) of which Mahinda Rajapakse is the head and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)led by Velupillai Pirapakaran have both said yes to Oslo facilitated talks in Switzerland. If everything goes well both GOSL and LTTE delegations will be engaging each other in Geneva or some other Swiss location on the 28th and 29th of this month.
The big guns representing three of the four co – chairs were in Sri Lanka at the time this article was written. Richard Boucher, Yasushi Akashi and Jon Hanssen – Bauer were all there to coax and coerce both sides into attending talks.With both sides agreeing some sections of the media at least are exuding optimism. “Breakthrough ” scream the headlines.
Frankly this column sees very little to be hopeful about.
I think it was Winston Churchill who observed once that it was “better to jaw – jaw than war – war”. On that basis it is certainly good for the GOSL and LTTE to jaw – jaw in Helvetia than war – war in Sri Lanka. But then neither side is “officially” at war in Sri Lanka. The ceasefire agreement remains in force still. Both sides continue to pay lip service to it.
Yet the Country has seen on – going clashes amounting to war in the past months. Jaw – Jaw in Switzerland does not necessarily mean the absence of war – war in Sri Lanka. Both jaw – jaw and war – war can go on simultaneously.
Why is this column pessimistic about a positive outcome or at least about preliminary steps to a positive outcome? Simply because the track record of both sides shows that they are like unwilling horses being taken to water. They may pretend ,yes, but they will not drink.
The reality today is that there is no ceasefire and a war is on. It was on for quite sometime now. The proposed talks in Switzerland is not going to alter that reality. The talks may bring about a lull but it can only be temporary.
It was Clausewitz who described war as an extension of politics. In Sri Lanka the hegemonistic oppression of the Tamil nationality by the numerically larger majority brought in its wake determined resistance. It was this political dynamic which translated itself into war.
The situation in Sri Lanka has gone even beyond Clausewitz. The war has now pervaded the ceasefire and extended further into the negotiating table.
The atmosphere in Geneva last January was vastly different to that prevailing in Thailand’s Sattahip in September 2002. The protagonists perceived themselves as partners for peace in Thailand. The participants acted as adversaries in Switzerland.The aim was to depict the other side as being the villain of the piece rather than striving to achieve real peace.
There was clearly no meeting of the minds in Geneva. An agreement of sorts was reached only because Nimal Siripala de Silva was instructed by Mahinda Rajapakse to arrive at some understanding and return. (Porondhuvelaa Enda; Passa Balamu)
The significant thing about Geneva was that both sides pledged to control violence. The LTTE promised to control the “makkal padai” or peoples force. The GOSL promised to restrain the paramilitaries or members of the EPDP and Karuna faction.
Interestingly both sides had earlier insisted that these forces and groups were acting independently and that they had no links with them. Yet both agreed to control them in Geneva. Everybody that was somebody in the International Community (IC) was happy. Until the bubble burst.
Members of the Karuna lodged at the EPDP office in Trincomalee shot and killed the Tamil community leader and prospective national list MP Vikneswaran. The LTTE peoples front began setting up claymore mines. Everything was back to square one and violence was rampant again.
The IC pressured exerted pressure again and got both sides to meet in Oslo. The LTTE pulled off a fast one and declined to talk saying that the two sides were not of equal status. The GOSL walked out and utilised the opportunity to engage in skilful propaganda against the tigers.
Violence began escalating. The GOSL used airpower, firepower and manpower to its advantage. A dirty war was also unleashed. The Tamil civilians had to bear the brunt of all these attacks and warfare. Yet the IC did not seem to be losing much sleep over this.
There were two reasons. One was that in International perception the LTTE had exceeded limits and had to bear the consequences. Despite differentiating clearly between the LTTE and the Tamil people the IC seemed to gloss over this crucial difference. The Tamil people had to bear vicarious responsibility for the LTTE action.
The second reason was that the LTTE was seen to be losing battle after battle with the GOSL. With the state being perceived as top dog there was not even a dog’s chance for the underdog namely the beleaguered, long – suffering Tamil people.
For nearly six months the GOSL armed forces under President Mahinda Rajapakse have been targetting Tamil civilians under the pretext of combatting the tigers.
Aerial bombardment, artillery shelling etc of Tamil civilian habitats have been going on indiscriminately and incessantly/ Tamil civilians have been killed, arbitrarily arrested and made to “disappear” Unbridled state terror went on.
There was also war hysteria being whipped up in the South. Military “victories” were notched up in Maavilaaru, Muthur, Sampoor and Muhamaalai. It was widely proclaimed that the tigers were powerless and turned into kittens. “Kotiya dhan poos patiyek” gloated a Bhikku from Kadhirgaamam (Kataragama).
The Rajapakse regime rode the crest of a hawkish wave. War was the strident demand. The International community did nothing except to make some token gestures and issue mild statements.
It appeared that the world believed Rajapakse’s forces could exterminate the tigers despite violating human rights. They waited for the V – Day.
Some including this column repeatedly pleaded with the IC to take effective steps to bring about an end to the violence. The IC was implored to pressure Mahinda Rajapakse. Some statements were issued and requests made. Nothing substantial happened on ground.
The GOSL continued with its military action. These actions were justified as being defensive.According to Colombo the armed forces were only acting defensively or pre-empting anticipated LTTE action. Civilian dwellings were shelled and bombed and explained away as tiger positions being destroyed or neutralise.
This rationale behind launching “defensive offensives” provided GOSL carte blanche to conduct operations anywhere in Sri Lanka. The ceasefire was of no consequence. President Rajapakse himself went on record that the GOSL reserved the right to take such defensive action regardless of the ceasefire or peace process or related talks. This was the new Hambantota doctrine.
The IC seemed unable or ynwilling to check this GOSL tendency. Hanssen – Bauer visited Sri Lanka some days ago and obtained the consent of both parties for talks. Yet the GOSL launched a vicious military offensive within days of his departure. There were no protests from the IC. A deafening silence pervailed.
There followed a fierce battle reminiscent of an earlier one codenamed Agnikheela.
For many Tamils it was a feeling of deja vu all over again .
Five and a half years ago on April 24th 2001 the Government of Sri Lanka under President Chandrika Kumaratunga launched a military operation called “agnikheela” (fire flame in English and thee chuvaalai in Tamil),
After intensive aerial bombardment and artillery shelling to “soften up” LTTE defences the armed forces proceeded from positions along the Kilaly – Eluthumadduvaal – Nagarkovil axis towards the South and South – East of the Jaffna peninsula.
The objective was Elephant pass. It was then (as is now) an issue of prestige as well as of strategic importance to regain Elephant pass which had fallen to the tigers the previous year.
Previously the LTTE had declared a unilateral ceasefire on Christmas day and extended it for four months. The GOSL refused to accept the olive branch extended and continued with provocative tactics. Finally the LTTE called off the ceasefire.
Within two days the armed forces launched Agnikheela.
The troops advanced well into the Pallai – Soranpattru – Massar area with relatively little tiger oppposition. The first few days seemed to indicate that the LTTE was on the verge of defeat.
The International community was conspicuously silent on the first two days when it appeared that GOSL troops were having the upper hand.
Then the tigers hit back!
In 36 hours the armed forces suffered a humiliating defeat incurring more than 600 casualties dead and wounded.
The International community (IC)sprang into action. Breaking their silence statements were issued urging both sides to eschew violence and go in for a negotiated settlement. With the Katunayake attack of July 24th the Sri Lankan air force was crippled.
The IC was convinced the LTTE could not be contained by the GOSL. War was discouraged and a negotiated settlement was urged. The Norway facilitated peace process received firm IC backing. The rest was recent history.
The situation was very much akin to the pre – Agnikheela atmosphere when the second Agnikheela commenced on Oct 11th. It was launched despite talks being scheduled for Oct 28th and 29th.
The GOSL made a military advance and was routed in the western side of the same region where Agnikheela occurred. The LTTE struck back and demonstrated that they were vibrant as ever.
The armed forces of the GOSL seemed to be in bad shape. Then came the attack on naval personnel at Habarana. This was followed by an assault on the Naval base in Galle.
The image projected by the Rajapakse regime that the “Koti” (tiger) had become a “Poospati” (Kitten) was shattered. The tigers had proved to the world that they were not a spent force. It appeared now that the LTTE had to be restrained from mauling the enemy.
Lo and Behold! The International community has begun coming out of its enforced hibernation. Vehement statements are being issued . Concern is expressed about rising levels of violence. It is being emphasised that both sides should desist from confrontation and resume negotiations. The US, EU, India are all issuing strong statements.
It is indeed commendable that the International community is stirring itself into action when the GOSL is not doing too well.. But why was such inaction prevailing when the state was unleashing violence and terror on the Tamils? Tamils are increasingly saddened because they placed much reliance on the IC and expected it to be fair by them.
This then is the fundamental reason for lack of faith in this so called peace process and proposed talks. The IC was of no use in preventing the LTTE from killing and abducting dissidents and members of other groups described as “traitors”in earlier times; the IC was of no use in preventing the killing and abducting of Tamils suspected of being linked to the LTTE by so called paramilitary groups ; the IC was of no use in preventing the deaths of Tamils in Aerial bombardment and artillery firing.
The IC which seemed powerless to protect Tamils being killed during a period of ceasefire becomes agitated like a cat on a hot, tin roof when the LTTE starts attacking defence personnel. Even then it is content to observe passively as long as the armed forces are on top. But when the LTTE is seen to be gaining the upper hand the IC gets very concerned about escalating violence and seeks ways and means of containing it.
The impression gaining ground among many Tamils is that the IC is not being even handed by them. Many Tamils can understand the reasons behind International antipathy towards the LTTE but cannot understand or bear the apathy showed towards the tragic predicament of Tamil civilians. This perception of being seen as abandoned or betrayed by the International community can only drive more moderate Tamils into the tiger den.
There is a grave crisis of credibility about the peace process and related talks. The Rajapakse regime is not trustworthy. Few Tamils have any faith in any decision arrived at with such a regime. Any pledge given will be observed only in the breach is the feeling.. The case of agreeing to disarm paramilitaries in Geneva and going back on that is a clear illustration. As such talks in Switzerland are seen as a pointless waste of time by many Tamils.
Likewise most Sinhala people have no faith in the LTTE too. The strong Southern viewpoint is that the LTTE is not genuine about a negotiated settlement. The tigers come for peace talks only because of international pressure or to buy time to make their own preparations. The LTTE will not honour the ceasefire. The tigers only want a separate state and will not abandon the armed struggle until they achieve it. This is the pre-ponderant feeling among many Sinhalese.
There is also the fact that commencement of talks will not guarantee guarantee cessation of violence . Attacks and counter – attacks could go on before, during and after the talks. The GOSL reserves the right to engage in defensive – offensives at any point of time. The GOSL has also threatened to call off Talks if the LTTE engaged in any violence.This is like disqualifying the sprinter even before he has got off the starting blocks.
The tigers too will not keep still if the GOSL tries to push through another “defensive offensive”. The LTTE adopted a particular stance in the recent past for reasons of its own. That situation has now changed. The LTTE will engage in armed action if and when the occasion arises. It will not be passive in a bid to appease International sentiment. Events on ground will influence the tigers more than the desire to get into the IC’s good books.
The LTTE feels that the IC has lost the moral high ground because it has not restrained the GOSL from unleashing war on the Tamil people. If the GOSL reserves the right to defend itself at any time then the LTTE also reserves that right.
If the GOSL can launch attacks as “pre- emptive defence” then the LTTE can also do so.
If the GOSL can attack Sampoor and Muhamaalai on that basis then the LTTE can launch attacks in Habarana and Galle on the same basis too.
If the GOSL can conduct war and talk peace then the LTTE can talk peace and conduct war too.
If sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander then meat for the lion can be meat for the tiger too.
Complicating the situation further has been the Supreme Court decision on the North – Eastern merger.The goal posts have been shifted as the match is in progress. Another point is that a separate Muslim delegation must be accommodated as early as possible in talks. Muslim participation is a must. More about these issues later.
The climate of violence must abate. The GOSL must ensure the return of displaced Tamils, re- open the A – 9 highway and remove the severe shortage of food, medicine, fuel and essential items in the Tamil region. The killing and abduction of civilians must cease. Meaningful efforts must be underway to alleviate the suffering of Tamil civilians if a conducive environment for fruitful negotiations is to be reached
Against this bleak backdrop the prospects for success at the Swiss talks seem dismal. The IC seems keen on the motions of a peace process than substantive results.What is required however is the will to exercise genuine pressure on both sides (the GOSL in particular) to abide by decisions taken in the past as well as those to be taken in the future.If the International community is not firm in compelling or influencing both sides in this respect proposed rounds of talks can only be futile exercises.
If the track record of previous talks are any indication anything can happen. Events on ground may prevent talks commencing; even if they start the talks could collapse half – way ; even if talks conclude no decision may be reached; even if decisions are arrived at they may be deliberately flouted or unimplemented.
Let us then not have any illusions about the war – war in Sri Lanka and proposed jaw – jaw in Helvetia.
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October 21st, 2006