After Mullaitheevu: Fate of Prabhakaran and Future of LTTE
By Col R Hariharan
The capture of Mullaitivu, the last big town under the control of the Liberation of Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE), in a way came about as abruptly as Kilinochchi on January 25. But 59 Division of the Sri Lanka security forces which captured Mullaitivu had to fight its way through in some of the worst terrain against well fortified defensive positions. The fall of Mullaittivu was not unexpected. In fact in my article in the Hindu last week, I had said, "With such a large force confronting them, the LTTE cadres defending Mullathivu are facing a situation that is not dissimilar to what they faced during their defence of Kilinochchi, which crumbled after the government forces broke through the perimeter defences. Mullathivu might face the same fate with the final assault going through as a walk-in into a ghost town."
Only this time around, the approaches to Mullaitivu pulled some surprises with the strong resistance east of Dharmapuram up to Viswamadu-Viswamadukulam. Security forces had reported blasting of the Kalmadukulam tank by the LTTE and flooding the Dharmapuram, Ramanathapuram, and Viswamadu areas to stall the advance f the security forces. According to the media, occupying an area of five square km this tank was the second largest in the north.
However, the LTTE cadres in defending area between Puthukkudiyiruppu and to its south and west have little chance of holding on with approximately five divisions converging on it from three directions. 55 Division advancing along Nagarkovil-Chundikulam axis in the north captured Chundikulam crossing the lagoon of the same name. It plans to link up with 59 Division in Mullaitivu which would close the last bit of free access to the sea between Mullaitivu and Chundikulam to the LTTE.
The chief of LTTE Velupillai Prabhakaran has become elusive even as a lot of hype was built up by the security forces about his presence in Mullaitivu area. As the Sri Lanka expects to rout the LTTE completely by March 2009, Prbhakaran's whereabouts become crucial after Mullaittivu's capture. The LTTE has been silent on speculations about its supreme leader, having lost its tenor due to the fading fortunes of war.
The Sri Lankan army commander Lt Gen Sarath Fonseka has claimed that 95 percent of the LTTE is "finished." Territorially speaking he is probably correct. But I am sure the security forces know that would not be the "real" 95 percent of the LTTE unless most of the cadres are killed or caught and the weapon inventories of the LTTE are accounted for. They also would acknowledge Prabhakaran has to exit the Sri Lanka scene for "finishing" the LTTE finally.
His continued leadership is vital for rebuilding the LTTE to survive another day. He has been the guiding spirit of the LTTE in war and peace all these years and many of the followers would not know what do without his command. More than that, he has not allowed the rise of any other leader to the stature of being his successor. As the LTTE revolves around Prabhakaran his death or apprehension could fold up the LTTE. His fate is also interlinked with the fortunes of his acolytes and fellow travellers both at home and abroad, particularly in Tamil Nadu.
Just before Mullaittivu fell, there had been widespread speculation in Sri Lanka media that he might have gone to Kerala or Tamil Nadu or even Penang State in Malaysia. All the three regions, where pockets of LTTE sympathisers exist, are not in the good books of Sri Lanka. However, at present these stories appear to be more fiction than factual.
With these stories, the Sri Lanka intelligence agencies probably hoped to demoralise the LTTE cadres defending Mullaitivu.
The LTTE cadres at the battle front are out of touch with Prabhakaran. This is not surprising as Prabhakaran normally does not join frontline battles though he keeps close touch with operations. The Tiger leader is also known to change his location frequently even in normal times. These are sensible survival precautions of a paranoid leader who has made too many enemies. And that is how he has survived. The Prabhakaran mystique is built as much on his low visibility and as the high secrecy of his location.
But where is Prabhakaran? Despite inspired stories about his departure to India, Malaysia or elsewhere, he runs the risk of being arrested in most of the 37 countries the have banned the LTTE in some form or other. Only Myanmar, Thailand and Kampuchea could become destinations of a fleeing LTTE leader. Of course, South Africa and Eritrea are touted as two other possibilities. But both are too far and travel would be too risky for the LTTE leader. The LTTE had a history of striking deals with corrupt elements of Myanmar military regime. But its socially downtrodden Tamil ethnic population has little influence and the military regime might sacrifice Prabhakran in adversity. Kampuchea where the LTTE had been buying his arms and Thailand where the LTTE has some clout with powerful Sri Lankan Tamil expatriates appear to be the only possibilities.
But own assessment is that given his doggedness built around the goal of achieving Tamil Eelam, Prabhakaran might not quit Sri Lanka to the comfort of Sri Lanka government. Tamil Nadu and Kerala coasts are the easiest to reach. Tamil Nadu in particular is an attractive destination for Prabhakaran because LTTE has built support assets there. However, it could be extremely risky also. Prabhakaran may welcome Indian coast for the limited use as a transit point before sneaking out to one of the western countries where death sentence does not exist and such leaders do get accommodated. After all Britain still has given refuge to one of the most wanted Chechen terrorist leaders. So Tamil Nadu and Kerala would do well to be on guard as Sri Lankan boats getting abandoned on India coasts have been repeatedly reported since last December.
10 Comments
You and the GOSL divert attention on Prabaharan to kill civilians at Mullaitivu.
Tamil genocide should be urgently attended to but you are silent! Is it your heart, or greed for money.
Japan,EU,the USA and Norway as co-chairs gave the tacit approval for war, Sya the Foreign minister of SL, He is blabber but if true, it was a cover for Tamil genocide.
Justice will always win. All those who promote murder and blood shed are cursed to death. Let us wait to see the events unfolding.You may not see it but Prabaharan and the Tamils will see it.
In your article there is neither logic, human rights or justice portrayed. It is wishful thinking of a frustrated soldier!
All news stories about the happenings in the war zone are based on speculation, surmise and supposition because of the absence of media persons there.Why the SL Government has banned the media AND the NGOs, is NOT a subject on which the national and international media wish to speculate. The only news being seen/heard are those of Tamilnet, radio transmissions from the wanni & videos of a few foreigners going round the areas just outside the war zone.This talk of "human shields" has been spoken about continually, I suspect, to explain the slaughter of civilians in the war zone. This did not happen when the IPKF invaded the northeast.War necessarily occurs in areas of human habitation and civlian casualties much more than that of combatants is unavoidable. The recent invasion of Gaza and that of Lebanon in 2006 by the Israelis who have the most sophisticated war planes,tanks,artillery etc. is proof of this.Even the american army has mediamen/women "embedded" with them in the war zones in Iraq & Afghanistan. They report all infringements of inhumane killings by the troops and many soldiers have been tried by courts martial. But it is too much to expect this to happen in sri lanka.The final body count will not be known accurately, like what happened in 1971 & 1987/88 JVP insurrections. Wanni civilians may not have been willing to move out of the war zone, being aware that those who did are being held in camps controlled by the military with minimal food, facilities and strict internship.
Dear Col.Haiharan, Praba is still in Srilanaka, but not in Mullaitivu as evryone think. He will never ever leave srilanka.
Many wrong predictions like these have been done in the past including the rumour of the death of Prabhakaran and he has survived all that. you are trying portray Prabhakaran as just an ordinary terrorist totalling closing your eyes to the fact that he has emerged as a tall historical figure and freedom fighter among lakhs and crores of Tamilians not only at Eelam but also in Tamilnadu and elsewhere.Time will come when history ranks him along with the likes of Che guvera, Shubash Chandra Bose...etc...
Many wrong predictions like these have been done in the past including the rumour of the death of Prabhakaran and he has survived all that. you are trying portray Prabhakaran as just an ordinary terrorist totalling closing your eyes to the fact that he has emerged as a tall historical figure and freedom fighter among lakhs and crores of Tamilians not only at Eelam but also in Tamilnadu and elsewhere.Time will come when history ranks him along with the likes of Che guvera, Shubash Chandra Bose...etc...
No one care about the civilians killings. When Gaza was attacked by Israelis all the world governments condemn the Israel. All the media has alerted the world with higher attention to the casualities. If we compare with Wanni, Gaza is nothing. But big differnt here is Gaza is important for the world since it is in Middle East and needs to show the favor just for oil. Wanni does not have any attractive resources for the world. If you say, world will not show sympathy for LTTE, then why it shows sympathy for Haamas? Sri Lankan uses the all weapons against its own citizen like fighting with another country.
Is the world think about the humanity or their needs? Answer is no one care about the humans.
Col,
Dont you think India is responsible for all these mess. When the IPKF came what did they do ?. Dint they Kill Innocent Civilians ? Dint they Rape Girls ?. Were they saints ? Touch on Bahawath Geethai and Answer ?. Before IPKF started to be an Indian People Killing Force they were rude to people, They wanted every one to do what they wanted. Even before the war broke down the Former PM wanted Praba be killed.
When so many were killed by the IPKF did India say sorry to the Tamils ?. What are they making a big issue of Rajiv's Death compared to so many innocent civilian killings. Is India trying to take revenge for a single killing by wiping the entire Tamils with the help of others on the pretext of killing or capturing Praba ?.
Whose hands are tainted with Blood ? Answer Mr. Col. At least at this stage Answer the facts.
Therefore No Single Tamil is prepared to Trust Any Indian from the North. They are all the same. The Sri Lankans would be much happier solving their problems and do not want your help or for that matter for your Govt to poke their hands in a mess. Many feel Indians dont like others medeating and bringing in a settlement to the sufferings.
This group of Liberation para military has been working for a seperate country over 3 decades. What have they achieved? only poverty and failure to thrive of its community. Some of them has gone out of the country and now their second generation has very low interest on the struggle. Money what the organization recieved have been used for military expenses. The hospitals and infrastructures are being maintained by SL government. If LTTE took weapons to fight they must be prepared to win/ lose. There have been several instances that they came into peace process in order to retaliate.
LTTE blasted several bombs in non-military areas in the island killing lots of civilians. Those instances there were no objections from the voices crying now on civilians in north. It's very pathetic that civilians are being sandwitched between two forces. LTTE MUST FACE it's truggle allowing the civilians to leave the war field not using them as a shield. This kind of poor war tack ticks are the indications of LTTE'S terminal illness. Anyway, the struggle of Tmils never end with the termination of Prabakaran or LTTE. Developing the island with equality in respect, peace and development all over the country would make all SriLankans happy and the country would flourish into prosperity. My request to LTTE, is to leave the weapons and come into democratic process, leaving the remaining leaders to lead the people in the future rather than risking their lives. My hope is that the GOSL would develop the areas disregarding the ethnicity in those areas and make a favorable environment for all SriLankans to live peacefully.
Harriharan Sir, You wrote good article about 1987 period of india and it mentioned what wrong Rajiv made. Please send this artical to Sonia and Ragul and Priyanka. They have to know What was happened in1987. Thatswhy they still helping Srilanka to genoside tamils and they still doing same fault. Please explain to them what was IPKF doing that time. How many womens spoiled? That may included Thanu( who was killing Rajiv Gandi). Srilankan tamils didnot expect Like a pease keeping forces doing that. I was fifteen years old that time. Still remember what had bad experiance we had that time. When the forces come along the street we can't live in our home. we have to run to more than 2 km to paddy field area. Rajiv had to discuss with tamil party before doing agreement. He didn't. He was supporting Srilanka.India have to undestand more Srilankan Tamils Support Ltte.
Could you tell us the reason why your are caring most regarding the whereabouts of Prabakaran rather than the ongoing Genocide, mainly against the innocent tamils?
I never heard of such things that Sovereignty of country would not include the right to kill the people nor can it be excused by any means.
Still I wonder how these nuts can think that killing of tamil people is just portrayed whereas the Govt barely refused the reporters and Red cross people to access the area where thousands of people suffer without sufficient food, medicine, and other basic needs whichever said to be important for a decent living.
Logically it proves that the Army is committing Genocide so they do not want it to be known to the International community, resulting the pressure from could change the fate of Tamil people there.
India helps the Army which commits Genocide, enabling us to astound how brutal this country became!
Congress party has personal vengeance with LTTE, made them to offer such modernized weapons at the cost of our own tax whereas 26% of people suffers below poverty line. Hereby I want to question, "What do you enjoy in such bloodshed?"
This election would prove the fatal behavior of congress and it's allies especially in TN.