The security forces claimed killing around 100 LTTE cadres in the last 48 hours as the LTTE was marshalling its strength to breakthrough the frontline. Though the security forces’ casualties were not officially released but it would be high, considering that the LTTE did make an initial breakthrough at least in one case in its desperate bid to stem the Sri Lankan onslaught. However, this minor breakthrough north of Puthukkudiyiruppu was broken up later.

According to the defence sources, the increasingly constricting battlefront around has now reduced the LTTE area to a tiny 50 sq km. The frontline now extends from Palamathalam on the northern edge of the safety zone, to north of Puthukkudiyiruppu, and across to the western edge of Mullaitivu lagoon. The security forces have built a formidable line up for the “final kill” – 55 Division north of Palamathalam, 58 Division north of Puthukkudiyiruppu, 53 Division west of Puthukkudiyiruppu, Task Force-8 west of the lagoon and 59 Division in Mullaittivu. And more task forces and divisions are in depth.

The security forces have made steady progress with vital gains along the coast south of Chalai virtually limiting the coastal strip available for the LTTE to make a “final” get away through the sea. Already the navy is deployed off Mullaitivu coast to intercept fleeing LTTE boats. 55 Division had claimed sinking 10 Sea Tiger boats when it thwarted an attack by 20 Sea Tiger boats under Soosai on February 27, 2009. Since then the LTTE had repeatedly been trying to make offensive forays along the battlefront.

This would indicate the LTTE’s dogged mindset to fight on till the bitter end, regardless of civilian casualties. Considering this, the defence report that the LTTE was using area four km south of Puthumathalam as launching pad for its offensive action is likely to be correct. But the danger is that the LTTE has sited its mortar and artillery batteries within the safety zone in the midst of dense civilian concentration. The lives of these civilians are totally in the hands of the LTTE and the security forces who would suffer casualties if they do not take retaliatory action to silence the LTTE batteries.

Unlike over 20,000 combatant casualties of the war, civilian deaths during the last few months were avoidable if only both sides had shown more compassion and humanitarian considerations. But the totally militarized environment has given way to cynicism and callousness on both sides. Inevitably military priorities are overriding humanitarian considerations as the security forces are tightening the noose around the LTTE which is fighting a life and death battle

International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), which has successfully ferried some 2,400 civilians from the war zone during the last three weeks, has also called for the evacuation of all civilians. The ICRC head of operations for South Asia, Jacques de Maio, has described the Vanni situation as "one of the most disastrous" he had experienced. In his view it would be possible to avoid further unnecessary suffering and death by allowing civilians who want to leave to get out of the area. He has also asked for more aid to be allowed to reach the civilians.

Sri Lanka had been facing mounting pressure and criticism of on this issue from international community. Many countries including the U.S., UK and India have called for a ceasefire to save the civilians. In India, the jerrybuilt ruling coalition applecart is being rocked severely with the Tamil population’s strident demand for a ceasefire in Sri Lanka. Had these calls come before the LTTE came embarrassingly close to defeat, they would not be suspect in the eyes of Sri Lanka. So it is no surprise that Sri Lanka rejected the calls for ceasefire outright; however, it reiterated its offer to call a halt to the war if the LTTE laid down arms.

Of course, even if Sri Lanka does not accede to such calls for halting the war, its problem on this count is unlikely to diminish. The only saving grace in Sri Lanka’s action so far is that despite huge superiority in numbers, the security forces are not rushing through the final offensive apparently to enable more civilians to escape the LTTE gauntlet. In the coming days the security forces will be using less and less of artillery fire as they neutralise LTTE pockets of resistance set amidst teeming civilians one by one. As the battle spills more and more among civilians, casualties will increase dramatically. Ultimately when the military juggernaut moves in for the final battle, even if it wants it would not be able to distinguish between the LTTE and civilians.

The LTTE is an insurgent force that had repeatedly used terrorist tools with little consideration for civilian lives even when it was not fighting a war. So it is unlikely to make saving of human lives as its first priority. Nothing shows this than the cavalier way the LTTE political wing head B Nadesan handled the call of Indian Foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee to the Sri Lanka government to seize the opportunity offered by the LTTE’s readiness for a ceasefire as an opportunity to evacuate the civilians from the war zone. Significantly, in this particular statement the Foreign Minister did not include his earlier call to the LTTE to lay down arms. Yet Nadesan rejected the call outright because evacuation of civilians was unacceptable to the LTTE.

Why is the LTTE not allowing the civilians to exit from the battle zone? There are a few reasons for this. Many of the civilians there have family connections with the LTTE or its hard core supporters. There would also be LTTE casualties of war. Moreover, there are also LTTE’s administrative auxiliaries who are helping out the frontline cadres as well as the families. All of them have legitimate fears about their fate if they go over to the areas under the control of “Sinhala” armed forces as they see it. Inevitably, they will have to be screened to exclude potential LTTE killers infiltrating along with them or escaping the battle. So the security forces have to exercise vigilance and control in some form or other over them when they are held in temporary camps. Unless their future safety is guaranteed by a neutral agency, these civilians are unlikely to walk out even if a safe passage is arranged to get out of the combat zone.

Of course, there must be civilians among them who do not fall under these categories. And the LTTE would not allow them to leave as it could induce an uncontrollable urge in everyone to escape.

So what the LTTE wants is a ceasefire, with no changes in its agenda. That means the LTTE essentially wants to continue as an independent armed military entity with control over its domain. It is this attitude of the LTTE that makes its calls for the international community’s help the trapped civilians suspect. In short, it wants everyone to forget the physical, geographical and political changes that have been wrought in Sri Lanka in the last three years of war. The LTTE, which is quite savvy in international ways, knows this is not a realistic expectation. But yet the LTTE wants India to go the extra mile to do so! If the LTTE expectation from India is to help it survive, it would find few takers despite all the emotions stirred up in Tamil Nadu.

The anguished cry of Tamils all over the world on this issue is not getting the unbiased attention it deserves thanks to the LTTE’s continued callousness and the Sri Lanka state’s reluctance to change its stance. In this bleak scenario, the arrival of Indian medical team in Sri Lanka to help the civilians in the north is welcome news. But it looks too little considering the magnitude of the problem. The mute point is can the international community do anything to get the people out of this logjam?

(Col. R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90.He is associated with the South Asia Analysis Group and the Chennai Centre for China Studies. E-mail:colhari@yahoo.com)