Guerilla warfare

The battle will now shift to a different level, warn these observers. And it is not a contention that the government disagrees with. “I think the high-intensity conflict will end this year with the LTTE losing territorial control,” reflected Muttukrishna Sarvananthan, an economist and analyst who has long observed Sri Lanka’s internal war. “But the low-intensity conflict, the hit-and-run guerrilla warfare, will continue for an indefinite period.”

“The LTTE military cadres will go underground and resort to guerrilla and terrorist attacks based on good intelligence,” agreed Hiran Halangode, a retired brigadier with widespread experience fighting the Tigers. “They have money and will buy anything to cause havoc. Because of their 25-year background there will be method in their madness. I feel that sympathisers in Tamil Nadu and the Tamil diaspora headed by such fronts as the World Tamil Movement will provide funds and propaganda to keep the Eelam dream alive.”

In the immediate future, Halangode expected the LTTE to bury or conceal any remnants of their military hardware and to merge with civilians, “pretending to be innocent”. G Y de Silva, a retired air vice marshall, also maintained that the LTTE will return to guerrilla warfare, attacking everyone from politicians and military to innocent villagers. “They will target any Tamil who will support the government,” he added.

Terrorism

Asked whether the country could see an increase in terrorism, he replied in the affirmative, saying there would be hit-and-run attacks or suicide bombings. “The LTTE will create panic to prevent economic development taking place, particularly in tourism and foreign investment.”

In a recent interview, Rohan Gunaratna, an international terrorism expert also predicted: “The LTTE is a guerrilla group. The LTTE has been able to infiltrate its members into other parts of the North and East. A counter-terrorist and counter-insurgency operation takes longer than expected.” He said that, with a significant support base overseas, a concentrated effort to dismantle the LTTE’s shipping, procurement, financial, propaganda and other structures overseas was vital.

“The war which we have been fighting for the past 30 years will end,” said Laxman Hulugalle, director of the Media Centre for National Security. “Everyone said we can’t win. Successive presidents tried and failed. But we took on the challenge and the end may come in two weeks or less.”

Nevertheless, the Tiger will not change its stripes. Hulugalle said attacks like those in the US, Mumbai, Lahore or even London in 2005 were “unavoidable”. They can happen at any time, anywhere. “I’m not talking only of LTTE terrorism,” he explained. “We have definitely beaten and defeated them but there could be a terrorist attack in ten years. Somebody might ask why we can’t control terrorism but tell me who has done that so far? Nobody.”

Asked how long a renewed spell of guerrilla warfare would last, Sarvananthan felt it would depend on how quickly the security forces eliminated the LTTE’s top leadership. He declined to name them but the main surviving Tiger top guns are considered to be Prabhakaran, Pottu Amman and Soosai, all of Velvettithurai in Jaffna.

Angola

As an analogy, Sarvananthan drew comparison with UNITA — the National Union for the Total Independence of Angola — that fought the Popular Movement for the Liberation of Angola (MPLA) in the Angolan War for Independence from 1961 to 1975 and in the ensuing civil war of 1975 to 2002. Despite a 1995 peace agreement, UNITA soon returned to conflict but disintegrated after leader Jonas Savimbi was killed in a military ambush in 2002. UNITA then abandoned armed struggle and participated in electoral politics, winning 16 out of 220 seats in 2008 parliamentary elections.

“The next thing,” Sarvananthan continued, “is to wean away the Tamil population that may still be supportive of the LTTE. This means putting forward a viable, acceptable political solution.”

Still, not everyone agrees with the contention that the LTTE will return to — and succeed in — renewed guerrilla warfare. “They usual answer is that the LTTE will take to guerrilla warfare as they did in the beginning,” reflected Jayantha de Silva, a retired army officer. “But will they?”

Situations have changed

De Silva said the situation today differed from the 1980s when the Tigers were able to coerce the support of the Tamil population, merging with civilians after their attacks. “The Tamil people in the North and East no longer support them,” he opined. “Consequently, our intelligence will be better placed to obtain intelligence of their presence, and more importantly, of their intentions. A guerrilla force survives on the largesse of the people. If the people are against them, they cannot survive.”

A guerrilla force also needs leaders, de Silva observed. And, if they cannot hide among the civil population, they need a base to operate from. “The security forces know this because they, too, are trained in anti-revolutionary warfare or anti-guerrilla warfare,” he noted. “They will take action to deny such bases to any leftover groups. They will go after the leaders and any communications they have. Without the support of the population, leadership and communications, the guerrilla bands will be forced to disband.”

De Silva pointed out that the LTTE and 32 other groups formed by Tamil politicians (based on the decision they took at the Vadukkodai meeting in 1976) all came from criminal underworld gangs and smuggling rings of the Jaffna peninsula. Only four of the groups were from universities and Tamil intelligentsia.

“The disbanded LTTE will now try to merge back into the underworld and smuggling rings and revert to being criminals and smugglers,” he said. “A few who still have some ammunition may form their own gangs and do what some army deserters have been doing, kidnapping for ransom and may perhaps even hold up banks and shops. But this should not last more than a year or so before they are all arrested or destroyed by army patrols.”

What will remain of the LTTE are the overseas fundraising and arms purchasing cells, he foretold. Once the LTTE leadership is destroyed, these too will collapse. “The individuals who ran them will want to look after themselves and will take what funds they can and open up legitimate businesses such as restaurants and shops and try to manage the rest of their lives,” de Silva elaborated. “There is also the fear that the LTTE will resort to suicide bombing in our major cities. While this may happen through suicide teams that have already been dispatched, these will not last long as they will disappear through attrition.”

De Silva clarified his comments by saying they were based on a pragmatic assessment of what is possible in “a normal military context”. “Unfortunately the LTTE has never conformed to norms,” he said. “They have been writing their own book. As such, the above should be considered as a point to consider and not gospel.”

Never again — Gotabaya

In an interview, Defence Secretary Gotabaya Rajapaksa speaks on how the LTTE would transform itself after losing its territory, Excerpts:

On guerrilla warfare:

“Everybody says the LTE will return to the guerrilla form of warfare but we are taking precautions. A main feature of our military campaign has been learning from the past so that weaknesses of previous military efforts are rectified. We were able to defeat them militarily this time.”

On prevention:

“We have now anticipated what they are going to do. If they plan to infiltrate in small groups and start trying to behave as in the 80s, we have means to cater to that. We will not allow jungles to be isolated. We will deploy troops and dominate each and every place. We have recruited enough people and will continue recruitment. We have strengthened the home guards, the military, the STF and police. We will not allow them to regroup in the jungles. It’s a myth that the LTTE will return as a guerrilla force because we won’t let them.”

On support for LTTE:

“The Tamil people will realise that following this military path is useless because for 30 years Prabhakaran tried to secure Eelam but got only destruction. They can see from the quantity of arms and ammunition the LTTE have been amassing that all the money collected went towards strengthening the terrorists and not towards the welfare of the people. The end result has been a destruction of youth, culture and lifestyle. The Tamil people will not support a continuance of war and the LTTE cannot do anything without this backing.”

On hardcore cadres:

“A few hardcore types may exist in small groups but we will gradually eliminate them.”

On the diaspora:

“The LTTE have developed a strong diaspora outside Sri Lanka. These people are unaware of the effects of terrorism. They live comfortably in countries like Cananda and USA. Their children go to good schools and they have good jobs. Once in a while they give money to the LTTE, collected either voluntarily or by force, they attend rallies and so on. The LTTE has money with which to lobby governments and politicians. They also try to lobby other Tamils, not just Sri Lankan Tamils. These efforts can be defeated through the resettlement and development programme, dealing with the humanitarian angle. The LTTE will not be allowed to infiltrate through political means.” [courtesy: Lakbima News]