The major surprise in the last stage of the Sri Lankan army's campaign against the LTTE, in mid-May, was its unexpected success in wiping out virtually the entirety of the rebel group's leadership. The credibility of the government's declaration of victory on May 19th was strengthened by the death of the rebel leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran, in the final bout of fighting. Although conflicting accounts of his death emerged, images of the corpse and identification by senior former Tamil rebels backed up the veracity of the claim. Apart from Prabhakaran, other senior LTTE leaders were also reportedly killed. They included the leader of the group's intelligence wing, Sivershankar Pottu Amman, the commander of its naval force, Thillaiyampalam Sivanesan (known as Soosai), and its political chief, Balasingham Nadesan. Prabhakaran's son and head of the rebels' small air force, Charles Anthony, was also killed in a separate encounter. The fact that so many in the senior leadership are dead, and that the LTTE has no land base left, suggests that the Tigers are finished as a political and military force.

Tamil separatism is nevertheless likely to continue as a movement, and other terrorist organisations may arise to take the LTTE's place. It is doubtful, however, that these will be able to tap the financial and organisational networks that were available to the LTTE, especially in the Tamil diaspora. Generational gaps and disillusionment with the Tigers had in any case been making it tougher for the rebels to generate the same level of support recently as in previous years; a new insurgency would find motivating donors even tougher.

Meanwhile, much of the stock of arms and ammunition available to the Tigers was lost in the recent war, so a new group would have to start from a poorly supplied base. If separatist incidents occur in the coming months, they are thus likely to be unsophisticated attacks—although they may still be bloody.

With the prospects for the armed struggle looking poor, new attention is likely to turn to the political sphere. The government has ruled out allowing what remnants, if any, exist of the LTTE to return to the political mainstream. Still, despite the LTTE's past efforts to kill off moderate Tamils, the Tamil community is not lacking in political parties or leaders. Although these groups are fragmented, prominent individuals include Douglas Devananda, the social welfare minister and leader of the Eelam People's Democratic Party; and Veerasingham Anandasangaree, the head of the Tamil United Liberation Front. Both distanced themselves from the Tigers many years ago. Vinayagamoorthi Muralitharan (also known as Karuna), a former head of the Tamil Makkal Viduthalai Pulikal (TMVP) and now a member of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (the main component of the ruling United People's Freedom Alliance government), may also become more prominent, although his main base of support is in the east. Before joining the political mainstream, Karuna had created the TMVP as a breakaway faction of the LTTE.

The government has already promised that elections will be held soon—in August, the latest reports indicate—for local authority positions in Jaffna and Vavuniya in the north, the first in a decade. It is possible that provincial elections could follow in the north, possibly in late 2010 or 2011. What is not yet clear is how much the government and security forces will interfere with the results. (Militants and thugs associated with Tamil political groups may also intimidate voters.) If the government actively discriminates against certain Tamil politicians, for example those associated with the Tamil National Alliance coalition (which won 22 seats in the 2004 general election but has been closely associated with the LTTE), the election result may lack legitimacy and underlying ethnic tensions may rise.

Moreover, despite the end of the civil war, resolving the grievances of the minority Tamil community will remain a major challenge for the government. The government's strategy is to address this problem by fuller implementation of existing measures that devolve power to the island's provinces. However, a lack of fiscal resources will limit funds available to the regions. In addition, the president, Mahinda Rajapakse, has a personality-centred style of leadership that does not seem suited to ceding power to provincial authorities. Many therefore doubt that devolution will occur in practice. Nevertheless, if the government can promote economic development in the east and north, this may help to lessen resentment in the wider Tamil community in the long term. But there is unlikely to be a substantial reduction in anti-Tamil discrimination at national level in 2009-10. [courtesy: The Economist]
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MEDIA FREEDOM IN SRILANKA
Freedom of Expression news from Sri Lanka
"Economist" banned for article on post war Sri Lanka

MFSL note 2 12th May 2009:

12th June 2009 issue of Economist magazine has been held up for security reasons (!) by Sri Lanka customs. Subscribers who pay SLR 11,000 a year to Vijitha Yapa book shop in Colombo have not received their copies yet. The reason for this censorship could well be an article on Sri Lanka, which is pasted below this note. According to informed sources this is the 4th Economist issue that has been banned by customs in recent past.

Sri Lanka Customs has banned several South Indian magazines in the recent past, including Ananda Vikadam. Owner of the well known Tamil bookshop, Poobalasingham, Mr. Sritharasing was detained for importing Ananda Vikadam on 5th March 2009. A few days later student who was going to Jaffna was arrested at the Rathmalana domestic airport when air port security found a copy of the magazine with him (see MFSL monthly report March 2009).

On 29th April controller of Immigration and Emigration, P.B. Abeykoon, stated that his Department has deported or denied visas to a large number of foreign journalists, on the basis of a belief that these journalists are not capable of ‘balanced reporting’. (see MFSL special report No 2) According to our information no journalist will be allowed to Sri Lanka on visitor visa which can be obtained on arrival form now on.

Government of Sri Lanka has repeatedly assured international community that there will be no media censorship in Sri Lanka especially in the post war period. But the reality speaks otherwise.