He shared this accolade with President Mahinda Rajapaksa who the Sri Lankans dubbed ‘The Saviour of the Nation’. A week is a long time in politics as expressed by Harold Wilson the ex-Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. Compared to the seven months since the victory over the Tamil tigers it seems that eons have elapsed in the political landscape that is Sri Lanka.

While political machinations and electioneering continue for the forthcoming Presidential elections on January 26th 2010, the seminal realities of Indian Ocean geo-politics seem almost transparent to the Sri Lankan electorate at large. The main group of protagonists in this melee for the political soul of Sri Lanka are China and Russia as one group while India in tandem with the Western powers of Europe and America is the other part of this strategic divide.

It is by no accident that Sri Lanka entrenched itself in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) as a dialogue partner after its victory over the Tamil tigers. (The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is a military dimension that was formed when the demise of the Soviet Union and the bi-polar nature of the super powers rivalry became singular with America as the only global super power.)

Sri Lanka’s entry into the SCO as a dialogue partner is in keeping with the President’s political view on what is good for Sri Lanka in the global political arena. It was partly prompted by India and the western powers of USA and Europe’s major global strategy. A strategy that is effectively the containment of China by curtailing China from building bases outside of China – in effect a policy that renders China militarily encircled. However the agreement to grant China the facility to build a deep water harbour in Hambantota in 2007 by Sri Lanka rang alarm bells in Washington and New Delhi alike. China’s strategic interests lay in unhindered sea route from the oil fields of Arabia and Iran to China. Sri Lanka is a part of the strategic jigsaw in this scenario as all shipping to China has to pass the southern tip of Sri Lanka. It also blends well with the Chinese strategy of ‘string of pearls’ where similar ports in Pakistan, Bangaladesh and Myanmar (Burma) have been granted to the China.

President Rajapaksa has been able to successfully exploit the two opposing elements of global politics for the good of Sri Lanka. The President exhibits this political skill with Machiavellian adroitness. This is symptomatic of a man honed on the political skills that has had a long period of gestation in domestic as well as a good understanding of international politics. The political reality also is that Sri Lanka has to maintain friendly relations with India - the super power in the region. The relationship however must be such that interference in the internal politics of Sri Lanka is curtailed .During the eighties this relationship was tense, when Rajiv Gandhi’s attempt to dictate to Sri Lanka muddied the political waters between these two nations. Hence dialogue membership of the ‘SCO’ to intimate to India that Sri Lanka’s sovereignty is not to be impugned. India is fully aware of Article 14 of the SCO Charter where a dialogue partner can request protection and defensive aid if under threat from an external foe.

China’s economic domination in Asia is also a future reality and as Lee Kuan Yew (the former Prime Minister of Singapore) remarked ‘the relationship of countries in Asia to China will be economically similar to that enjoyed by countries in South America and the Caribbean to America’- a fact that was not lost on President Rajapaksa and his advisers. Latterly Chinese aid to Sri Lanka has superseded that of the USA. China’s aid to Sri Lanka totalled over a billion US dollars in 2008 while USA aid to Sri Lanka was a paltry eight million US dollars. Another major factor was the refusal of the USA, EU and India to supply arms to Sri Lanka during the Eelam wars. China, Russia, Iran and Pakistan stepped into this vacuum and were very generous in the required arms shipments. This action was decisive in the victory against the Tamil tigers.

Even after the comprehensive defeat of the Tamil tigers America and the EU flexed their diplomatic muscles to humiliate and scupper the relationship that Sri Lanka has with China couched in terms of human rights violations. This was not altruism but a cynical ploy as the same yardstick is not utilised when major human rights violations are committed by Israel on the Palestinians. Even the illegal Iraq war had in its wake far more civilian casualties and casualties still continue to this day. International politics is not a subject of morality or altruism it is based on powerful countries utilising the United Nations and their own political, military, financial and diplomatic clout to extend their influence and self interest. In this context India found itself in a quandary, the very same quandary that had prompted it to provide military intelligence to Sri Lanka during the Eelam war – it had no option but to support Sri Lanka when the accusations of human rights violations surfaced. To do otherwise would be to drive Sri Lanka further towards China and Russia.

The question remains can General Fonseka emulate the international ‘tight rope walking act’ of President Rajapaksa of ‘running with the fox and hunting with the hounds’ that has served Sri Lanka so well in International affairs. While the General is broadly aligned in a similar fashion to China and Russia his relationship with India has not been entirely cordial. He is also burdened with the anti-Indian Marxist leaning ‘JVP’ and the pro-western ‘UNP’ – an uneasy relationship of strange bed fellows with opposing views on International matters.

In the domestic arena the General is admired for his clarity of purpose in augmenting a vision towards a just and un-corrupt society in Sri Lanka. He has made the abolition of corruption and nepotism in Government the heart of his campaign. While these qualities may win plaudits and indeed votes from the Sri Lankan electoral masses, will the same qualities of straight talking and honesty ‘cut the mustard’ when the minefield that is International politics is played. For the Western powers of Europe and America it becomes ‘Hobson’s Choice’, on one hand a China leaning Presidential novice who is an unknown quantity in International politics and the unpredictability that it eschews or the incumbent President who is ‘the devil they know’.

For India the election of the General to President could probably mean a loss of influence and the political tilt towards China and Russia that will have security implication for their geo-political Indian Ocean strategy. Unfortunately the qualities of a President that is required to play the game that is International politics are very different to that of domestic politics. Recently the General made a ‘faux pas’ of ‘hoisting his own petard’ by accusing the army of human rights violations that he later retracted and attributed to a misquotation by the press – an error of judgement that the International press, the Tamil Diaspora and countries and forces opposed to Sri Lanka exploited with glee. In International politics an ‘off the cuff’ remark such as pronounced by the General makes International diplomacy that bit harder, as the recent reaction by the UN for an explanation from the Sri Lankan Government has transpired.

In recent times Sri Lanka has exhibited its diplomatic skills very astutely and has punched above it weight, with the support of China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan and indeed India. Sri Lanka has mastered the diplomatic game and has reaped the benefits for the good of Sri Lanka. This delicate balance in International politics has been the signature tune of the current administration. Can General Sarath Fonseka rise to the challenge in the International stakes if he does take the helm in Sri Lanka on January 26th 2010? The election is but a month away – and a month is a long time in politics.