India expecting dividends from Sri Lanka for its support during war
by Col R Hariharan
Leadership challenge
When Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa visits New Delhi from June 8 to June 11 he will be stronger than ever before. The three things he achieved in his first term of office – wiping out Prabhakaran and his Tamil Tigers, re-election for a second term with increased margin of votes and an unprecedented victory in parliamentary poll with 60% mandate from the voters - give him the confidence to talk from a position of strength to New Delhi.
Added to this Rajapaksa, in spite of his deceptive simplicity, has cleverly turned the Sinhala triumphalism in the wake of victory in the Eelam War to eliminate potential rivals. The popular hero of the Eelam War General Sarath Fonseka is facing court-martials. And the suave and articulate UNP leader Ranil Wickremesinghe is locked in a survival struggle to retain his position as leader of the United National Party.
With Sri Lanka under his sway for next seven years, New Delhi will be contending the rejuvenated Mahinda Rajapaksa - the most powerful head of state from Sri Lanka ever to visit the Indian capital.
Is New Delhi ready for the rejuvenated Rajapaksa? It should be because Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh has his own success story. He is stronger politically after an enlarged mandate from the people for his second term of office. The destructive coalition partners and opposition he faced in earlier term have been cut down to size. The Congress-led coalition’s economic management, despite complaints of absence of transparency, cronyism and corruption, has maintained the country on the growth path. Dr Manmohan Singh’s aspiration to take India-US relationship is getting a further lease of life. Of course this is largely due to the US coming to terms with the limitations in building a win-win relationship with China ignoring India.
In spite of all this, New Delhi continues to show a subsuming hesitancy in handling Sri Lanka. If we look at the silent support New Delhi had provided the President ever since he was elected in 2005 and all along thereafter, both sides appear to have worked out a flexible model of collaboration, co-ordination and at times mutual condescension.
The collaboration came with India providing Sri Lanka all facilities, short of modern weapons, to improve the capability of its armed forces. It provided real time intelligence to control, curb, and destroy the international logistic and support system of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). But Indian leadership could not trumpet its support as it had to tread the ground carefully at home as the ruling Congress-led coalition was weak and depended upon octogenarian leader Karunanidhi and the Dravida Munnetra Kazagham (DMK) party in Tamil Nadu.The shrewd Tamil Nadu chief minister milked the Eelam issue to gain maximum clout in New Delhi and divided the sympathy votes for Eelam Tamils at home in Chennai.
As the war is over logically India should be expecting dividends from Rajapaksa for its support. And the expectations are probably on three major fronts: equity for Tamil minority, closer economic bonds, and greater strategic convergence between the two nations with India remaining a favoured partner in Sri Lanka’s strategic horizon. President Rajapaksa’s style is to turn compulsions into favours to be dispensed at a time and situation of his choosing. So how will India handle him?
International discourses of Sri Lanka
As K Venkatramanan of the Times of India said in a recent seminar, the Eelam war and its aftermath in Sri Lanka has thrown up a few international discourses. India has to show a sustaining interest in handling these discourses to fulfil its responsibilities as a nation. What are these discourses?
Human rights and humanitarian issues
How to deal with Sri Lanka (or any other nation in a similar situation) that has chosen to ignore international calls for improving its accountability on human rights as it feels it infringes its sovereignty. The European Union and the UK will continue to pressurise Sri Lanka on this count in the coming months. What should be India’s attitude on this moral issue cloaked in politics? India cannot afford to be either wholly idealistic or coldly real politick when human rights skeletons are rattling in its own counter terrorist operations. Can India continue to depend only upon back room diplomacy to prevail upon Sri Lanka to produce results, particularly when it is dealing with an ever more powerful Rajapaksa?
Increased profile of the U.S. and China in Sri Lanka
In Sri Lanka’s war and its aftermath both the U.S. and China asserted their roles with greater visibility and gained a strong foothold. India facilitated this by playing a muted role due to self imposed restraints due to internal political considerations. After the war Sri Lanka is facing two major problems in resolving which it needs international help.
The first is the huge financial outlay required to rebuild north and east, and to speed up economic recovery to repair the crippling effect of war. The second is the growing pressure on Sri Lanka articulated by the UN Secretary General Ban ki Moon and in the UN human rights forums.
Though India can match either the U.S. or China in meeting Sri Lanka’s economic needs, only the U.S. and China, as UN Security Council members with veto powers, can influence the UN course of action against Sri Lanka. This is going be crucial as the international lobby against war crimes in Sri Lanka is gathering more momentum. So logically, President Rajapaksa will have to accommodate the U.S. and China more in the national strategic spectrum without treading upon India’s toes. Will he do it is a more difficult question than can he do it? And what is going to be New Delhi’s strategy?
Tamil issue
During the war, many Sri Lankan Tamils rightly or wrongly perceive India as the villain that helped Rajapaksa bury the Eelam dream. Of course, in their passionate denouement they conveniently forget that India had always been opposed to independent Tamil Eelam. But this disenchantment of India has not been countervailed by increase in favourable Sinhalese attitude towards India. Even half-hearted Indian efforts to bring ethnic amity in Sri Lanka are still looked upon by many of them with suspicion. So unlike in the past, India has a problem at hand in carrying its voice heard in Sri Lanka in the midst of cacophony of its detractors.
As the Tamil issue has an umbilical connection with Tamils in India and the Diaspora elsewhere its tugs and pulls go far and wide. This should not be understood merely in terms of electoral politics in which it continues as a peripheral issue. It has larger moral and social implications for Tamil society and its sensitivities. It should not be forgotten the Tamil society is only recently overcoming the sense of exclusivity and alienation that had bugged it since early days of India’s independence. A recent manifestation of this phenomenon was seen in the strident calls that came from Tamil movie industry for boycott of the non political International Indian Film Academy awards function in Colombo. Thus India’s actions and their impact on Sri Lanka continue to be relevant to Tamil people everywhere regardless of their attitude to India.
This sensitivity rules the minds of many among Sri Lanka Tamil Diaspora still recovering from the elimination of the Tamil Tigers as a powerful entity. They are smarting under the loss of face as many Sinhalese are trumpeting their triumphalism. And President Rajapaksa had shown no hurry to address Tamil sensitivities on the issue of autonomy, perhaps because there is no Prabhakaran to threaten Sri Lanka’s unity. He has largely chosen to ignore the need for animation of the 13th amendment that is serving only as a wall paper of the Tamil issue. India had been promoting its full implementation as a face saving device; but Rajapaksa had so far shown a marked reluctance even to save India’s face, let alone tackle the Tamil issue head on. So what is India’s strategy?
Economic discourse
For some years now India had been building its economic relations with Sri Lanka. By signing its first ever the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 1998, India has shown Sri Lanka has a preferred status in its relations over other countries of South Asia. It is not merely Sri Lanka’s demonstrated capacity to remain with the highest human development index and highest GDP among South Asian countries that triggered India’s economic foray. Sri Lanka’s domination of the Indian Ocean also has a part to play in its economic strategy.
In the last nine years since the FTA came into play India-Sri Lanka trade has increased by four times to US $ 2719 million (2009). In fact, in the SAARC region Sri Lanka is now India’s second largest trading partner. The two countries set up a Joint Study Group in April 2003 to enlarge the scope and content of the FTA and work out a Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). After 13 rounds of negotiations the CEPA has been given a final shape.
The CEPA when signed will take the mutual trade between the two countries to higher levels of cooperation and coordination. The proposed agreement addresses four areas: trade in goods; trade in services; economic cooperation (in mutually agreed areas like fisheries, energy, pharmaceuticals, textiles, financial, infrastructure, tourism etc) and investment issues. In real terms it provides for seamless customs procedures, consumer protection standards and procedures.
There had been some delay in signing this agreement due to opposition among sections of local business community in Sri Lanka. This is understandable as India is already a dominant trading partner with large economic clout. Both countries will have to convince them of the advantages in signing the CEPA. Of course, traditional India baiters among political parties now using the CEPA bogey will have to be tackled politically. President Rajapaksa who is supportive of the agreement will probably sign it at a time of his choosing - a politically opportune moment.
From India’s point of view signing of CEPA is important as it signifies the growth of relations between the two nations to a higher level. It could also signal the graduation of SAARC from a talk shop to a forum of solid achievement as the CEPA would set a precedence for other members to enhance economic cooperation. Thus it will have implications for the region and beyond. So how India is going to push it through?
Talks in News Delhi
Considering the complex issues cooking in India-Sri Lanka platter for sometime, President Rajapaksa’s visit assumes importance. However, according to media reports emanating from New Delhi, out of the 11 agreements under negotiation, only five have been finalised and are ready for signing. The five agreements do not include crunch issues. They relate to cooperation to fight terrorism, transfer of sentenced prisoners, mutual legal assistance in criminal matters, cultural cooperation, and Indian assistance for small development projects in Sri Lanka. So apparently there are not going to be any dramatic breakthroughs except for the usual diplomatic rhetoric. But President Rajapaksa is a man full of surprises, as Prabhakaran discovered to his detriment. So what is going to come out of his visit? We will have to wait and see.
(Col R Hariharan, a retired Military Intelligence specialist on South Asia, served with the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka as Head of Intelligence. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the South Asia Analysis Group. E-Mail: colhari@yahoo.com Blog: www.colhariharan.org)
15 Comments
To some of these artists and entertainers, “there is little nudity as objectionable as the naked truth.”
The film industry is rife with mercenaries who’ll jump through hoops for a paycheck and an Indian Oscar than give voice to the crucial social and global issues that play out on the real screen…the life screen!
Imagine Liam Neeson or Steven Spielberg, after having produced the epic Holocaust film Schindler’s List, then standing hand in hand in an award ceremony, decorated with laurels by the Nazi perpetrators of those same heinous crimes?
This is the very hypocrisy of the likes of Hrithik Roshan, Salman Khan & Vivek Oberoi, the main draw of the Indian contingent and circus act that’s visiting Sri Lanka at the invitation of war-criminal at large, Mahinda Rajapakse!
Such actors and artists symbolize today’s insolent greed, decadence and moral decay that’s representative of the entertainment society at large.
These dastardly individuals have no conscience but their own. Little do they realise they came to prominence in the first place owing to the sweat capital of not the elite but hard-working, blue collar cinema-goers (in Mumbai, Tamil Nadu etc). To simply boycott their films would be trivial, these artists need to be kicked out of the industry altogether! (Can maybe earn their future pay check in Colombo?).
Will Rajapakse take them on a safari-ride of the Vanni mass graves, concentration camps and torture centers as part of the glitzy opening ceremony? The debauched so-called film ’stars’ and war criminals flock together. Thank you land of Ven. Mahatma Gandhi!
Colonel,
"During the war, many Sri Lankan Tamils rightly or wrongly perceive India as the villain that helped Rajapaksa bury the Eelam dream."
You have got it wrong. For the vast majority of the SL Tamil people, the issue is not 'burying' the Eelam dream, as that has not exactly been the dream of everyone. The issue clearly is India's complicity in Sri Lanka's war crimes in the mass murder of 30--40,000 Tamil people in the Vanni. This will remain in our collective memory forever, just as the Armenians still remember their genocide by Turkey. Sri Lanka will remain a pariah state, and India, its partner in crime. There is no way you can whitewash it.
Yes, Colonel. Definitely, Mahinda will surprise Delhiwalas in a few days. Get used to it.
He might even sign-up CEPA which would further increase trade imbalance benefiting Indians, than make any serious commitment with timeline to resolve the national question.
May be, he might agree on something to buy some more time. He already have a strategy worked out, and started implementing. He needs a few more year to finish it. That is colonising Tamil majority are with Sinhala.
Until then he will through a few more bones to Indians to keep them at bay.
.
India created Prabhakaran.
India created Rajapakse (4 of them).
.
:-)
Dear Col ,
It seems you understand the truth by saying the following.
"And President Rajapaksa had shown no hurry to address Tamil sensitivities on the issue of autonomy, perhaps because there is no Prabhakaran to threaten Sri Lanka’s unity"
I have the same view. So Col, let me ask you this. Why on earth, you and your India still believe that any Sinhalese Govt will be fair to the Tamils and offer a fair solution? It seems you are implying that only a separate country will bring fairness to Tamils (that is outside the united SL). If you are man of your words, please ask Satish Nambiar to make a U-Turn and initiate a Kosovo type resolution to see whether Rajapaksa responds to it in a positive way and provides a solution for Tamils?
And as you suggest if India was not for Eelam, then why on earth India was arming and suppoting the Tamil movements (including LTTE) back in the 1980s? Taken the victimized Tamils for a ride?
If you a man who is truth to your words then I hope you can clear these doubts for us?
I agree with M Fern's frustration "if India was not for Eelam, then why on earth India was arming and suppoting the Tamil movements (including LTTE) back in the 1980s? Taken the victimized Tamils for a ride?"
But Fern is forgetting the point that Politicians (Including Gahdhi) are opportunists who have no morals and only live for power. The same could be said for defence strategists, analysts and whatever other name they go by to make money and quench their thirst for power.
So the victimised Tamils were taken for a ride first by the Elite Tamils in SL, then by militants who were the best tool for India to stir trouble in it's backyard during the cold war.
So the lesson is
1.There is no justice in this world.
2.The sun will rise tomorrow even if the entire Tamil population is wiped out by Rajapaksha PLC overnight. And nobody would care.
3.Do not waste time appealing to governments and world bodies such s UN.
4.Burry your altruistic believes.
5.Accept that this world is a “dogs eat dog world” and get on with it.
Thanks
.
Col. Hariharan is a known supporter of the Rajapaksa regime, although in the post-war scenario he appears to take a more balanced position, his views are similar to the Indian establishment. As such on the Tamil issue, he will incrementally change his position just as the Indian government will.
The back-peddling has already started. Immediately after the war, India’s position was 13-plus. A year on, that has gone by the wayside and the likes of Hariharan writes about increased economic cooperation, code for development without political solution. The exact solution the Rajapaksa regime has for Tamils. Hariharan and the Indian government are well aware that there will be no solution and Tamils will continue to be oppressed under the regime. They will continue to back-peddle because their initial position of supporting devolution for Tamils was a lie.
All India has done is make an enemy out of their natural ally and their unnatural ally in Sri Lanka remains suspicious of their motives. Sounds like a lose-lose scenario for India, a scenario of their own making.
I wonder to read those comments posted by LTTE supporters, living under refugee status in Europe. One person, who called his name as Expatriates commented like an eye witness on the battle field. The world will never accept your big lies, if Sri Lankan army needed to genocide Tamils people, they had chances to do it easily without laying their lives for rescued Tamils Civilians from brutal LTTE terrorists, who were used their own people as a human shield. Spreading of mass lies through the web sites may be given a thrill for your terror mind but it will not be given anything for your own Tamil people. If you are not traitor of Tamil People, first you should give your gratitude to the Sri Lankan Army for rescued Tamils from brutal killer, before criticized it as Armenian genocide.
If Tamils can’t stay with Sinhalese, they can’t stay anywhere in the world since I know how Tamils life in Europe and North America is, whatever they were trying to mention about their life in Europe and North America.
On what basis do these posters' claim a separate Country within Sri Lanka ? Does History support it ? Or even Geography or any other shred of evidence ?
This is RUBBISH ! What happened was that a terrorist outfit aided and abetted by Indira Ghandi's regime (Who did the same to all India's border states)was destroyed.
The LTTE was ruining OUR Country "O" Tamil bretheren. Now they are no more and it is time to come home and help us to develop the only peice of land on this earth that belongs to us. If you don't have the guts to do that please stay where you are as a second class citizen for life (and for generations). At least you have a chance of building up your rights here, what we need is rational but firm thinking from EDUCATED Tamil people.
If Rajapaksa and his modus operandi is the answer is not clear yet. If it isn't it will meet a suitable end, that is ensured by the Gods' that protect this land and who contrary to popular belief have NOT forsaken us.
Dear selvan073,
You said it quite well and it can be improved.
"Accept that this world is a “dogs eat dog world” and get on with it."
Because getting on with your lives in a “dogs eat dog world” without a strategy is not a very smart idea.
Lets put a twist on your words and try to be a winner dog in this dirty world.
"Accept that this world is a “dogs eat dog world” and develop the skills required to handle it well by using truth, trust, friendship and anything else to your advantage without sacrificing yourselves to the same."
aratai,
Donot change or rewrite the history the actions of Srilankan buddhist sinhala supremacist thugs and monks since 1948 created Pirapaharan
And India together with Srilankan buddhist sinhala supremacist thugs and monks+china created Rajapaksha PLC.
Now Rajapaksha plc is busy on making Pirapakaran no 2.
Long live Srilankan Graveyards.
India should receive its "dividends" for supporting the Tamil genocidal war, from the War Crimes Court in the Hague, and not from the people of SL.
Laudable comments by Gunalan on this failed "Blood Dance in the Graveyard of Lankan Tamils" - as someone described. Vivek Oberoi's lone guided heli-tour to some parts of the North gives out the conspiracy the IIFA was nothing but a poorly planned effort to provide a boost for MRs crucial June 8 visit to Delhi - where he (MR) was to claim "everything is tickety boo in my country now to the point hundreds of your filmland's super-stars held a 3 day show. IDPS are all smiling with most of them even refusing to vacate the camps. Why Vivek was there and will personally confirm this. ha, ha" (bringing in the Deceptive Smile which Col Hari refers here) But the world appears to be a much wider space as the BBC lands here with the experienced Stephen Sachur (Hardtalk) to coincide with MRs visit to Delhi. The damage done to the country by a key player in the administration is proof enough "coming colours ain't good at all" In addition to bringing to the notice the irrational behaviour of one he asks, while the world is watching, why is one of you called a
Mr 10%" Was meeting the TNA only a fews hours before Delhi yet another ploy and a further effort to buy time? Or is fresh and practical thinking on the way in telling Sampanthan and friends "Trust me - together we can find solutions to all our problems" If Sampanthan gets the popular local and diaspora Tamil thinking and mood right, despite the trail of broken promises and engineered perfidy from the other side, he should assure the President the trust he asked is there for the taking.
It certainly soils all of us that the head of this country should go to another country to seek their permission to settle an enormous issue that we could and should have - done among ourselves long, long ago.
ISS
India expects Dividends? So, that is what this war was all about as Arundhati Roy rightly put it, the Greedy Indians are rushing to get contracts in Sri Lanka. So in other words, Indians expect the Rajapakses to hand over Contracts in SriLanka to India, and not to the Chinese. But the nitwits in Delhi should understand that the Chinese have beaten them to the lucrative Contracts. Over 30,000 Chinese are already working on the island. The clowns in Delhi are the losers.
India will get its Dividends. Those responsible for Massacring over 50,000 Tamils and who think they can get away with it, will get their Dividends with Interest from Tamil people.
Sonia Gandhi’s PERSONAL vengeance and revenge feelings against Prabakaran, the leader of the LTTE for the suspected murder of her husband, Rajiv Gandhi nearly two decades ago, and the vengeful Sonia’s INVOLVEMENT in the massacres of about 50,000 innocent Tamil civilians by the Sri Lankan Armed Forces in the last year in Mullivaikkal, have not only cost India it's long-time grab on Sri Lanka to China FOREVER, but also India’s life-time dream about becoming an equal power to China in the region. This is only a beginning of a long term DRAMA and there are many more to come in the future. UNFORTUNATELY, India will come to pay heavily in long time in the future for Sonia’s PERSONAL vengeance & revenge foreign policy against the minority Tamils in Sri Lanka.
“Hate the sin, love the sinner” - Mahatma Gandhi.